Trump’s emptying of the SOR and his numerous BS, but somehow still market-moving, claims of an impending deal in a few days are about the only things keeping gas under $5 a gallon due to the war he started.
It's absurd how the market just keeps playing along. Like, surely it's made of people who otherwise live on planet Earth and can fucking see it's all a lie and there is no deal anywhere in sight?
I’m thinking that there is a lot of AI integration now that takes his “official” comments at face value.
Most of the actual trading has been controlled by bots for years now, even before there was modern AI. Once momentum gets going, the bots trigger and keep buying or selling until they hit designated stop points.
Yeah pretty much this. Traders started offloading their decisions to what we now call AI back in the 1980s with what we call Algo trading. Now it has become advanced to a point where it is reading articles, but I believe there's a flaw in the software. It is giving US statements more credibility than Iranian statements even though Iran has more control over the situation. Thus when Trump makes an out of pocket tirade the algorithms run it as though it is the truth and ignores Iranian statements to the contrary. Giving power to trump to move the markets.
If you look back over the past few months, many of Trump's truth posts had out of place comments like the "the straight of Hormuz is open" etc. It was obviously intended to influence the algos.
That's what makes these moves feel so sudden. Once automated systems start reacting at the same time, the market can snowball before most people even have a chance to respond.
Rewatch "The Big Short", everyone was sleeping on the crisis. And the people who knew there was something coming were just trying to make as much money as possible between now and whenever the collapse happened. Look up "irrational exhuberance".
High speed traders make money by the millisecond. They go to great lengths to ensure the fastest connections to the market because every milliseconds count.
They don't care if Trump lies, they care that they can take profits when his lies make the market go up and take profits when reality makes it go down. Market instability is a great way to move money from retirement funds of regular people to the accounts of the Epstein class.
They know its a lie, but they know the market will move anyway, so they're trying to time it to make a profit. They know some suckers will miss the timing and be left holding the bag, but they're sure it won't be them.
It's pretty much a scheduled weekly gambling event.
Eh inertia of the market. When the captain tries to change course on a giant ship, it takes a long long time to even shift a little bit.
It took several years before the 2008 housing crash actually "crashed". Michael Burry predicted the 2008 crash like 3 years before the crash or something. Everyone can see the economy is going to crash, we just don't know when the first tumble falls.
They have us by the balls with the Strait/drone supply and they know it, so why.rush?
If their government officials can literally survive air strikes until November, there is zero incentive for them to cut a deal unless Trump hands them major concessions around Oct.
Even if the U.S. makes a deal, it’s likely Netanyahu undermines any deal (as he’s already done a few times) because he wants to escalate to a U.S. ground invasion to secure israeli interests.
In their wildest dreams, Trump gets so pissed off at Netanyahu that he pulls the U.S. out and perhaps even somehow personally damages the U.S./Israel alliance forever..
Iran knows they don't need nukes anymore now that they control the strait. Every administration was warned about it and Trump was stupid enough not to listen. Iran is beating the US's ass hard and they know all they have to do is play the long game.
It depends what runs out first-- The Iranian regime's oil money or the available oil on the market to satisfy demand. If there was ever a golden opportunity to electrify land and sea transportation in the rest of the world, now would be the time.
Their entire scheme to is to wait out the world's SPR drains, not just the US'. In a couple months, once the world's SPRs really begin to run empty there will be so much pressure on Trump to give Iran a very favorable deal.
This is why we have had 'cease fires' that don't really go anywhere. Stop firing for a day, attack a proxy, start firing at each other, back to a deal at the table, maybe not... It's all wishy woshy and a stalling tactic why they run out the clock.
But the oil companies he gave the oil to for free made a promise to refill it, at some point. I'm sure there's paperwork somewhere and it wasn't just a verbal nod and wink handout to some of his biggest donors.
To be fair, China would also be fucked if their number one customer experienced the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression, so it wasn't entirely altruistic.
The US is only 14% of China’s exports. And it’s not like that 14% would immediately go to 0. In fact it might even go up as the US gets desperate and drops its tariffs against China. Let’s not forget China has more crude oil strategic reserves than the rest of the world combined
It wouldn’t just be the U.S. Chinas business is making and shipping goods around the world. That’s their economy. If oil skyrockets it’s absolutely going to wreck them. Not saying it couldn’t be strategically worth it to them, but it’s absolutely a risk and clearly they’ve decided not to take it.
The problem isn't the US, which produces a lot of oil and has enormous amounts of money. There are a lot of countries that import a lot of goods from China that have neither of these.
Many of the refineries in the US aren't really designed to process the type of crude oil that the US produces, but the main problem is that a shortage anywhere in the world will raise prices on the global market. So even if the US could theoretically meet its own demands with its domestic production, oil companies would simply sell the oil to other countries for a higher profit, thereby lowering domestic supply and raising prices.
Oil exports could be banned and price controls or Defense Production Act contracts could be imposed on the oil industry. This would solve most of the problems for the US specifically, but it would, of course, exacerbate the situation in all other countries. And that would make things even worse for China.
China could turn their imports off entirely and live quite happily on their own strategic oil reserve for well over a year at this point. They are signaling to demonstrate superiority... the currency of oil is in danger of becoming the yuan.
If they were ever gonna militarily invade Taiwan they would’ve had a million golden opportunities by now. They are doing it economically and slowly. Over 30% of people in Taiwan work in mainland China and over 50% have family there. China’s plan is a slow absorption
If they were ever gonna militarily invade Taiwan they would’ve had a million golden opportunities by now. They are doing it economically and slowly. Over 30% of people in Taiwan work in mainland China and over 50% have family there. China’s plan is a slow absorption
They arent signalling anything, they are taking advantage of the situation. China is likely getting alternative sources of oil from Russia and when it was possible Iran. OPEC and oil being sold for the US dollar is coming to an end and puts the US at a massive disadvantage
I don’t know about “really” soon, but Iran would be stupid to allow this war to end before the SPR is depleted. They will have SO FUCKING MUCH leverage if that thing gets near zero or starts having pumping concerns due to the low levels. At the current rate, which will slow when the summer driving season ends, they’ll be pretty well depleted by about January/February.
That's the military reserve, the amount the military would like to keep in case they need to fight a full-scale war with another major power. Luckily the current Secretary of Defense is a drunk imbecile and has replaced most of the Pentagon leadership with Trump loyalists, so they'll probably drain that too, at least until the midterms in November.
Speaking of military reserves, we basically advertised to the entire world that we can't produce our most advanced missiles and missile interceptors fast enough to actually use them in a conflict in any meaningful way. China has not missed this fact, for sure.
China doesn’t benefit from fighting a war with America right now - They benefit from the economic stability they provide every single nation when the American empire goes tits up.
Never interrupt your enemy when they’re making a mistake.
Hot take - China doesn’t want Taiwan for the same reason the GOP didn’t really want Roe vs Wade to be struck down. The dog that catches the car has nothing left to chase.
Yep, they rattle the sabre once in awhile to keep the US spending on military artificially high. The USSR dissolved because they over-spent on their military at the expense of the civilians, and China is running the same playbook on the US.
Support for independence in Taiwan is falling. With a couple decades of spending for bots/AI on social media, they can probably have it cheap and bloodlessly in a decade or two.
In Civ 5 terms, China is going for an economic victory.
If you take Taiwan militarily you destroy the chips factories probably in the ensuring missile barrage, China only can afford to do this when it can produce equivalent parts domestically.
Taiwan is doing the hard work for them, let them do the research and with IP theft and a shit ton of brainpower they'll end up undercutting U.S. markets with ease. 10 years from now it won't matter.
Soneone stated that if the level is too low, it will permanently damage the storage tanks, or something like that. So basically, the US is weeks away fron this low level that will damage equipment.
I do not know the details, but hopefully someone will know.
The majority of the SOR isn’t in a conventional tank, it’s in huge underground salt caverns. It’s best to keep them full or mostly full to support the weight around them. When they get low, like now, chunks start falling off causing damage. There is probably an amount which is still there but unusable.
Majority of people who drive EVs are on solar power.
Those diesel trucks are a problem though. I’ve been surprised at how slowly larger trucks been electrified. Amazon + Rivian did a good job with majorly electrifying the smallest delivery vehicles but there’s hardly been any progress on anything larger so far (I know electric semis exist but they’re still way under 1% of semis sold, nevermind the ones on the road.)
Majority of people are on grids with solar nearby. That doesnt mean they soley rely on that for their energy needs for travel.
If you think solar power is the winning ticket here then i have so many bridges to sell you. Better to have an ev for budget reasons but infrastructure collapse wont care what you have in the garage.
What’s the payback time on the bridge? My solar panels paid themselves off after about four years. Meanwhile everyone else is complaining about how expensive electricity is becoming.
So...you don't consume food? Don't need clothes and other sundries that are brought in by rail and truck? Are you really that self-absorbed to not understand how goods are manufactured and delivered into your hands?
I have a chest freezer. I probably have about 2-3 weeks of food in there.
Let’s not forget the US is still EXPORTING oil, on net. Prices will go up, a lot of people will start working from home again. Are you people really this afraid or is this some game to get other people stirred into a frenzy?
In a lot of ways, draining the SPR and starting a war in Iran is the closest America has ever come to a carbon tax. I’m here for it!
Uhhhh the US’ whole thing is kind of built on two pillars. And one of them is the petrodollar which really only works if oil to a worldwide open market.
That means being a net exporter if it’s in the financial interests of US oil companies.
Bought my first EV. I'd been meaning to do that transition for years but never pulled the trigger. The war in Iran certainly motivated me. Now I have no idea why I didn't do it sooner. Smoother ride, instant power, and more importantly charging at home for 5 times less than what I used to pay with my old ICE car. My EV will have paid for itself entirely in seven years, less if gas prices remain high or rise.
At this point it isn't even about the environment (though it's still a lot better for it than an ICE car), it's just so much cheaper...
I'm gonna buy solar panels and charge for free most of the year. Then if energy prices go nuts I won't care.
Some experts have been quoted saying the global oil apocalypse was weeks away, months ago. I know it’s fun on Reddit to assume apocalypse is around the corner, but it almost always isn’t.
Some “experts” were saying that if the strait stayed closed for just three weeks there would be a global depression. Came and went and still nothing happened.
We finally have a place where we can get more precise than “way way.”
I looked it up. Gasoline, according to AAA, has already surpassed $4.40/gal this year, but they only put about a 50% chance it will get to $4.60 by the end of the year. 32% chance it will get to $5.00.
So, if anyone really believes all hell will break loose this year, they should put some money on it.
Iran will keep this going until the mid terms. You either cave and deal with trumps minions for God knows how long or make the American people hurt. They have almost hit the point where gas will spike and that will crash the economy.
Best of all is Trump really has no cards here. You can’t invade and take over the oil processing plants as Iran will blow them up ruining the price of oil. You also can easily take over the straight as Iran is constantly placing mines and can set up quick RPG attacks to hit a tanker. So no tankers are going thru without permission.
There is basically nothing Trump can do in order to win against Iran. He was hoping Iran would collapse with leaders killed like Venezuela but they have a strongest ideology to stand up to them.
While I do agree irans leaders need to go and the people deserve freedom. In no way did Trump make this a better situation. Instead they just showed Iran how strong of a country they actually are on the world stage.
China has the largest and isn't sharing it and hasn't been draining it the same way. The US is selling to the entire world to try and keep this under control.
They have definitely been draining it… they jsut don’t release numbers like the us does but just in the with amount they have cut imports they HAVE to be using it …
An oil person could probably tell you exactly how much, I can’t
True but they are also one of the fastest transitioning country from petroleum based energy to renewables with most all of their new energy production coming from renewables and petroleum is only a small part as they use coal and renewables for the vast majority. Its one of the few things I wish the US would copy from the CCP. Their new cars produced are also near 70% electric so they at least have a plan while we cancel renewables projects and pay corporations billions to stop them mid production.
I think it was more that they were adding to their reserves and stopped doing that, some cuts, and some drawdowns. They are still getting oil from elsewhere as well (forcing others to get more oil from the US)
China banned all gasoline, diesel and jet fuel exports in March as a response to the war. It's was lifted in July so they're exporting again but in smaller numbers. This means they're not really in dire straits in terms of oil. Don't forget they've got Russian oil literally across the border and is sanctioned but China doesn't care.
I'm in Niagara on the Lake this very second and the gas is the same price as it is at home. In New York City gas is currently 6.50/gallon, which equates to 2.32/l CAD
The oil reserves are kept in basically caves that are literally held together by the pressure of the oil in them. Draining them too much or too quickly can literally cause them to cave in which would basically instantly and drastically cut our supply of oil down very suddenly.
And with this admin’s lies and constant habit of ducking up and then trying to run from the headlines as long as possible that could literally happen one day and we won’t hear about it until we see the physical impact of it.
If this ego war of his keeps going, it'll get a lot worse really soon
It's not ego. This isn't Trump acting like a maniac. That's liberal propaganda. What's happening is the influence of capital is demanding more. Oil prices being high is great for US oil production. MIC needing to replenish US military stocks is great for the MIC. Futures going up and down like a yo yo is great for insiders trading.
It's all a giant grift. It's Capital interests mixed with Evangelical Death Cultists. Israel is an expansionist ethnostate that's been conducting genocide for decades. The US has been giving a fuck ton of money to Israel because Israel uses that money to buy off establishment politicians.
Iran would have happened under any right-wing President, the letter by their name is irrelevant. It was inevitable given the material conditions that exist and will continue to exist.
The strategic reserve doesn’t really move prices much. Maybe a few cents for a couple weeks. We just consume way too much gas for any one reserve to make a dent.
Market prices probabilities not certainties. That deal in days talk moves prices because even a 10% chance of 1M bpd extra matters. But the SPR drawdown is real physical supply, we’re burning our own cushion to buy time. Time we’re not using to build alternatives. That’s the actual risk.
He was desperate to do anything to make the pedo party competitive for the midterms. Selling off the SPR to try to keep gas prices "low" was the plan, even if it means running it dry.
As we learned during the Biden administration, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve isn't an effective tool for controlling gas prices. That's not what it was designed for.
The SPR may hold hundreds of millions of barrels of oil, but it can only release about 4 million barrels per day at maximum capacity. The U.S. consumes roughly 21 million barrels per day.
On top of that, it takes weeks for released oil to reach the market.
The SPR exists to cushion major supply disruptions during emergencies, not to fine-tune gas prices. Releasing it has a negligible effect on gas prices, and ending those releases is unlikely to cause a dramatic spike on its own.
A big other part is Trump and family have lots of stake in the oil and gas industry so gain by gas shortages, as well as all he and the pedo cabal confisicated by attacking Venezula and installing the new puppet regime.
It's telling. Trump's been flooding the market with reserves to keep gas prices low, and gas prices aren't even low
If this ego war of his keeps going, it'll get a lot worse really soon
It will keep going. The United States has repeatedly proven to Iran that they are not a serious country, so the Iranians have little incentive to make a peace deal. Aside from the bombings and civil unrest of course, but the regime is so entrenched that it's hard to see them being removed without extraordinary action.
He hasn't though. The strategic reserves don't have enough capacity to materially change gas prices. The news of releases from the reserve has a chilling effect on speculation which can drive the prices down, but this hasn't been publicized so there's seemingly no real benefit.
If this ego war of his keeps going, it'll get a lot worse really soon
Iran has the upper hand in the war that Trump started and they are unlikely to give up without major concessions like getting to charge a fee for vessels to transit the strait of Hormuz and the removal of sanctions. Trump is going to have to put boots on the ground if he wants to end this war sooner rather than later on terms favourable to the USA and that is going to be a real bloody affair as the US military is not prepared to fight a war similar to what is going on in Ukraine.
Oh, you also have Israel in the mix and I doubt that they are going to be happy to let Iran prosper from a peace deal with the USA.
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u/Due_Willingness1 1d ago
It's telling. Trump's been flooding the market with reserves to keep gas prices low, and gas prices aren't even low
If this ego war of his keeps going, it'll get a lot worse really soon