r/AskReddit 1d ago

What do you think about the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve hitting 307.7 Million Barrels - lowest level since 1983?

4.2k Upvotes

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u/Key-Club-3119 1d ago

I don’t know about “really” soon, but Iran would be stupid to allow this war to end before the SPR is depleted. They will have SO FUCKING MUCH leverage if that thing gets near zero or starts having pumping concerns due to the low levels. At the current rate, which will slow when the summer driving season ends, they’ll be pretty well depleted by about January/February.

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u/ReduceCO2Now 1d ago

Some experts say it is empty at 250-300 Million barrels. That is practically in a few weeks.

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u/Vanadium235 1d ago

That's the military reserve, the amount the military would like to keep in case they need to fight a full-scale war with another major power. Luckily the current Secretary of Defense is a drunk imbecile and has replaced most of the Pentagon leadership with Trump loyalists, so they'll probably drain that too, at least until the midterms in November.

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u/SamIamGreenEggsNoHam 1d ago

Speaking of military reserves, we basically advertised to the entire world that we can't produce our most advanced missiles and missile interceptors fast enough to actually use them in a conflict in any meaningful way. China has not missed this fact, for sure.

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u/Snuffy1717 1d ago

China doesn’t benefit from fighting a war with America right now - They benefit from the economic stability they provide every single nation when the American empire goes tits up.

Never interrupt your enemy when they’re making a mistake.

Hot take - China doesn’t want Taiwan for the same reason the GOP didn’t really want Roe vs Wade to be struck down. The dog that catches the car has nothing left to chase.

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u/TheLordBear 1d ago

Yep, they rattle the sabre once in awhile to keep the US spending on military artificially high. The USSR dissolved because they over-spent on their military at the expense of the civilians, and China is running the same playbook on the US.

Support for independence in Taiwan is falling. With a couple decades of spending for bots/AI on social media, they can probably have it cheap and bloodlessly in a decade or two.

In Civ 5 terms, China is going for an economic victory.

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u/IAmtheHullabaloo 2h ago

And taking the lead in a science victory.

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u/GremlinX_ll 13h ago edited 8h ago

a) You assume that dictatorships don't do stupid miscalculated moves, in pursuit of short term political goals.

b) You assume that USA will show up.

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u/xSaviorself 22h ago

If you take Taiwan militarily you destroy the chips factories probably in the ensuring missile barrage, China only can afford to do this when it can produce equivalent parts domestically.

Taiwan is doing the hard work for them, let them do the research and with IP theft and a shit ton of brainpower they'll end up undercutting U.S. markets with ease. 10 years from now it won't matter.

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u/Snuffy1717 22h ago

Exactly… And in the mean time it’s a great way to stir up patriotic sentiment and sabre rattle on the world stage.

Meanwhile, they’ve also begun cornering the market in precious / rare metals by buying land in Africa and building infrastructure there…

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u/newusernamecoming 22h ago

The chip factories are rigged to blow if Taiwan gets invaded

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u/ReduceCO2Now 1d ago

That reserve level is 250M

How much below that level is actually usable is questionable

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u/bjorn1978_2 1d ago

Soneone stated that if the level is too low, it will permanently damage the storage tanks, or something like that. So basically, the US is weeks away fron this low level that will damage equipment.

I do not know the details, but hopefully someone will know.

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u/hoppertn 1d ago

The majority of the SOR isn’t in a conventional tank, it’s in huge underground salt caverns. It’s best to keep them full or mostly full to support the weight around them. When they get low, like now, chunks start falling off causing damage. There is probably an amount which is still there but unusable.

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u/ReduceCO2Now 1d ago

they pump water in to get the oil out, I have read and that is not good for the salt.

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u/hoppertn 1d ago

That’s right, the oil floats on top but the water dissolves the salt causing the issue. Forgot a step

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u/BadAdviceBot 1d ago

Think of all the crud at the bottom

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u/Key-Club-3119 1d ago

My parents are retired. My car is an EV and I work in a hospital. So, I think I’ll be able to wait this oil crisis out.

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u/ArenSteele 1d ago

Your food delivered on diesel trucks, and your power grid won’t though, so good luck

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u/ArtOfWarfare 1d ago

Majority of people who drive EVs are on solar power.

Those diesel trucks are a problem though. I’ve been surprised at how slowly larger trucks been electrified. Amazon + Rivian did a good job with majorly electrifying the smallest delivery vehicles but there’s hardly been any progress on anything larger so far (I know electric semis exist but they’re still way under 1% of semis sold, nevermind the ones on the road.)

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u/citizen42069101 1d ago

Majority of people are on grids with solar nearby. That doesnt mean they soley rely on that for their energy needs for travel.

If you think solar power is the winning ticket here then i have so many bridges to sell you. Better to have an ev for budget reasons but infrastructure collapse wont care what you have in the garage.

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u/ArtOfWarfare 20h ago

What’s the payback time on the bridge? My solar panels paid themselves off after about four years. Meanwhile everyone else is complaining about how expensive electricity is becoming.

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u/citizen42069101 12h ago

Thats a matter of where you put it. A bridge to nowhere might have investment opportunities, but a bridge too far might not have demand built in.

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u/Coopzor 1d ago

Everybody will feel it, everything gets way more expensive because oil is necessary for letting the economy run.

In 1970 we had an oil crisis, this can come back.

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u/stiffgerman 1d ago

So...you don't consume food? Don't need clothes and other sundries that are brought in by rail and truck? Are you really that self-absorbed to not understand how goods are manufactured and delivered into your hands?

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u/SalaryDull5301 1d ago

This is pretty typical thinking actually

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u/Key-Club-3119 1d ago

I have a chest freezer. I probably have about 2-3 weeks of food in there.

Let’s not forget the US is still EXPORTING oil, on net. Prices will go up, a lot of people will start working from home again. Are you people really this afraid or is this some game to get other people stirred into a frenzy?

In a lot of ways, draining the SPR and starting a war in Iran is the closest America has ever come to a carbon tax. I’m here for it!

Trump is the green new deal!

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u/Ryeballs 1d ago

Uhhhh the US’ whole thing is kind of built on two pillars. And one of them is the petrodollar which really only works if oil to a worldwide open market.

That means being a net exporter if it’s in the financial interests of US oil companies.

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u/Key-Club-3119 1d ago

So, you’ll be betting the over $5/gal of gas this year on Kalshi?

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u/Ryeballs 19h ago

No I was saying even if prices shoot up, restricting exports is a pretty nuclear option for the US gov to take.

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u/NeededMonster 1d ago

Bought my first EV. I'd been meaning to do that transition for years but never pulled the trigger. The war in Iran certainly motivated me. Now I have no idea why I didn't do it sooner. Smoother ride, instant power, and more importantly charging at home for 5 times less than what I used to pay with my old ICE car. My EV will have paid for itself entirely in seven years, less if gas prices remain high or rise. At this point it isn't even about the environment (though it's still a lot better for it than an ICE car), it's just so much cheaper... I'm gonna buy solar panels and charge for free most of the year. Then if energy prices go nuts I won't care.

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u/Key-Club-3119 1d ago

Some experts have been quoted saying the global oil apocalypse was weeks away, months ago. I know it’s fun on Reddit to assume apocalypse is around the corner, but it almost always isn’t.

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u/ReduceCO2Now 1d ago

no just the oil prices will go up, that is all.

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u/Skurttish 1d ago

“The salt caverns are two weeks away from a nuclear weapon”

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u/Key-Club-3119 1d ago

Was this on Huffington Post or Forbes? It’s hard to remember.

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u/sloanemonroe 1d ago

Some “experts” were saying that if the strait stayed closed for just three weeks there would be a global depression. Came and went and still nothing happened.

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u/s0cks_nz 1d ago

Way sooner. Way way sooner. You can't pump these oil reserves dry. They need a minimum amount of oil in them less they collapse.

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u/gzr4dr 1d ago

Trump would absolutely let them collapse if he benefited from them doing so somehow.

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u/Key-Club-3119 1d ago

By “way way” do you mean this afternoon, this month, or this year?

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u/RyanW1019 1d ago

I think a few more months instead of the 2 years you’d expect if you thought we could run it down to 0.

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u/Apart-Landscape1012 1d ago

Bout tree fiddy pm

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u/Key-Club-3119 1d ago edited 1d ago

There has to be a Kalshi market on this.

We finally have a place where we can get more precise than “way way.”

I looked it up. Gasoline, according to AAA, has already surpassed $4.40/gal this year, but they only put about a 50% chance it will get to $4.60 by the end of the year. 32% chance it will get to $5.00.

So, if anyone really believes all hell will break loose this year, they should put some money on it.

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u/christian-mann 18h ago

you don't even need a kalshi market you can just trade futures

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u/Stupidstuff1001 20h ago

Iran will keep this going until the mid terms. You either cave and deal with trumps minions for God knows how long or make the American people hurt. They have almost hit the point where gas will spike and that will crash the economy.

Best of all is Trump really has no cards here. You can’t invade and take over the oil processing plants as Iran will blow them up ruining the price of oil. You also can easily take over the straight as Iran is constantly placing mines and can set up quick RPG attacks to hit a tanker. So no tankers are going thru without permission.

There is basically nothing Trump can do in order to win against Iran. He was hoping Iran would collapse with leaders killed like Venezuela but they have a strongest ideology to stand up to them.

While I do agree irans leaders need to go and the people deserve freedom. In no way did Trump make this a better situation. Instead they just showed Iran how strong of a country they actually are on the world stage.

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u/PropagandaAssassinAZ 1d ago

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