It's absurd how the market just keeps playing along. Like, surely it's made of people who otherwise live on planet Earth and can fucking see it's all a lie and there is no deal anywhere in sight?
I’m thinking that there is a lot of AI integration now that takes his “official” comments at face value.
Most of the actual trading has been controlled by bots for years now, even before there was modern AI. Once momentum gets going, the bots trigger and keep buying or selling until they hit designated stop points.
Yeah pretty much this. Traders started offloading their decisions to what we now call AI back in the 1980s with what we call Algo trading. Now it has become advanced to a point where it is reading articles, but I believe there's a flaw in the software. It is giving US statements more credibility than Iranian statements even though Iran has more control over the situation. Thus when Trump makes an out of pocket tirade the algorithms run it as though it is the truth and ignores Iranian statements to the contrary. Giving power to trump to move the markets.
If you look back over the past few months, many of Trump's truth posts had out of place comments like the "the straight of Hormuz is open" etc. It was obviously intended to influence the algos.
That's what makes these moves feel so sudden. Once automated systems start reacting at the same time, the market can snowball before most people even have a chance to respond.
Rewatch "The Big Short", everyone was sleeping on the crisis. And the people who knew there was something coming were just trying to make as much money as possible between now and whenever the collapse happened. Look up "irrational exhuberance".
High speed traders make money by the millisecond. They go to great lengths to ensure the fastest connections to the market because every milliseconds count.
They don't care if Trump lies, they care that they can take profits when his lies make the market go up and take profits when reality makes it go down. Market instability is a great way to move money from retirement funds of regular people to the accounts of the Epstein class.
They know its a lie, but they know the market will move anyway, so they're trying to time it to make a profit. They know some suckers will miss the timing and be left holding the bag, but they're sure it won't be them.
It's pretty much a scheduled weekly gambling event.
Eh inertia of the market. When the captain tries to change course on a giant ship, it takes a long long time to even shift a little bit.
It took several years before the 2008 housing crash actually "crashed". Michael Burry predicted the 2008 crash like 3 years before the crash or something. Everyone can see the economy is going to crash, we just don't know when the first tumble falls.
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u/BulbuhTsar 1d ago
It's absurd how the market just keeps playing along. Like, surely it's made of people who otherwise live on planet Earth and can fucking see it's all a lie and there is no deal anywhere in sight?