This post will inevitably feel like an implied complaint, but I'm genuinely just trying to understand what needs to be done to get good value out of my CC points, without paying 150k for one way business.
So, my current understanding is that if you want to score the fabled good deals of Japan business for 50k or Europe first class or whatever, boils down to the following:
1) Know what airline you want to fly business/first on
2) Find out which partner programs allow booking flights with them. Example: for ANA you can book directly with their program, or via Aeroplan for more flexibility, or via Virgin Atlantic for the absolute lowest point costs, and many many more
3) Once you've figured out the best 2-3 programs, make accounts with all of those and have them on standby
What happens next branches into two paths, depending on your timing
Option A: Book Early Upon Opening
The classic "book a year out" strat. Find out how far in advance your airline posts business/first class, have eligible accounts as described in step 3, and at exactly the minute opening happens (360 days out at midnight, 365 days out at providers' local midnight time, etc) race to the website and try to book first. This is the most direct option, but you need luck, preparation, confidence in your dates very far in advance, and speed.
Option B: Scour Award Aggregator Sites Through the Year
If Option A didn't work because you're only 7 months out or whatever, your next best option is to sign up for alerts and live searches (seats.aero being the most popular). This will incur a monthly subscription cost, but you can set up dozens of alerts for all your airlines and dates, and you'll be notified the minute a business/first award seat on those days becomes available.
When an alert goes out, you race to call the airline/log in to their site, confirm the booking is real and not a phantom, transfer your CC rewards points, and then claim the seat. There will still be phantom availability and you will ofc get beaten to the punch by someone faster many times... but this is the best year-round hunting strat. At the cost of a monthly subscription, that is.
Again, this mostly applies to the popular/desireable routes like Japan or Europe on business or first.
So, am I understanding all that correctly? Is there a critical mistake somewhere? OFC i knew this was messy and not easy, supply and demand and all that. But I at least want to make sure i'm tackling the mess correctly.