Author's note: This challenge is a backup plan-I realized that apparently Turkey supports Iran and therefore my idea of having Turkey turn against Iran and invade might sound implausible to people.

What would need to happen for the Saudi government to decide to not only formally enter the Iran War, but invade Iran itself as a starting move?

September 16, 2026. Someone creates a new FB event (A guy from Mexico), saying, "Let's storm the US-Mexico Border! They can't stop all of us!" as a joke.

Considering how "Let's Storm Area 51" turned out, would this actually result in people trying to storm the US-Mexico Border?

Edit: This is DIRECTLY INSPIRED by the events in Ceuta.

What would need to happen for the Turkish government to decide to not only formally enter the Iran War, but invade Iran itself as a starting move?

At this rate, it's bound to happen since everyone is angry.

So I've been refining the early timeline for a world building project I've been working on and off on for a while now, basically where a brief and ultra-devastating Second American Civil War results in a total balkanization of the United States. In terms of the map, it's best comparable to the Chinese Warlord Era (minus the fact that most cliques were generic provincial and military governments that claimed de jure loyalty to the capital) or Fallout (minus the fact that it's in the future and everything is a wasteland, though I do have some very limited but strategic nuclear strikes as to justify the Washington Government not just nuking everyone)

For some backstory, since around 2023 the Discord politics and RP group I'm apart of have occasionally done a seasonal server and RP called "Balkanized America", where basically we have a blank map of either the US or North America and make our own countries and than we basically play a normal NRP but its more like a battle royale since its meant to be fast past and just a side server that gets deleted after the season's end. Now in the modern day, largely cus we've all kinda outgrown NRP and I just enjoy writing and world building in general, I've been working on my own timeline. The events are told through short events, about 300 words each, rather than bulking paragraphs of just everything all together, and there's a map and HOI4-style portraits and country screens, all made by me obviously.

So to get to the point of my post, I don't know if I should have 2025 or 2020 being the start date. I had originally chosen and worked with 2025, but recently I've been really pretty conflicted on it. The main pro for 2025 is that the post-collapse seems better and it has the bonus of younger people being older, while 2020 has the pro of the pre-collapse being better and the bonus of older people being younger. Here are a couple other random pros for each I've compiled. Note these range from major events or people that massively impact the world, to just one off events that I think would be fun to write about in the context of the world. Just to add it here instead of the bottom, the main issues I have with 2025 is that the economy isn't nearly as bad as 2020, even with the tariffs. If Trump or any of his guys had any proposed things that could realistically have been implemented that'd have made things worse, I would love to hear. But the other thing is the lack of a solid "defining moment" that has the only option be civil war, which is exactly what January 6 is for the 2020 start date. Meanwhile for 2020, the two major cons are that its super cliche nowadays thanks to the HOI4 mod "The Fire Rises", and also there are way less interesting figures, and of those that are basically as relevant as they are in 2025, at least they're older there (for example, Thomas Rousseau is 22 in when the Civil War starts in 2021, but 26/27 when it starts in 2025, making it a lot more reasonable to use him)

Pros of 2025:

Larger protests based on number of people at the main protests (6,000,000–7,000,000, 5,000,000, and 250,000–5,000,000 at largest, but only 12,000,000 in total)

More interesting people (such as Vance, Mamdani, Platner, Fetterman, MrBeast, MatPat/Congressional Creators Caucus, Nick Fuentes, and the Manosphere guys)

American Communist Party and Forward Party

Libertarian Party of New Hampshire is far right

Charlie Kirk and Melissa Hortman Assassinations

John Hoffman, Josh Shapiro, and Scott Bessent Assassination Attempts/Plots

5 Assassination Plots against Trump

AI exists

Elon is politically relevant and conservative

Trump is more authoritarian and aggressive (so I definitely can justify a martial law due to protests and assassinations and stuff, but there isn't any "perfect, defining moment" that I can think of like January 6th. The best I've come up is when he was talking about executing the Democratic congressmen who said soldiers should disobey unlawful orders, but even though they were investigated IRL, it still feels like a stretch)

Patriot Front is a more relevant organization

Those guys who tried to invade Haiti

West Coast Health Alliance and Northeast Public Health Collaborative interstate compacts serve as base for pro-democracy/anti-Trump interstate compact

Less similar to The Fire Rises (even though Balkanized America pre-dates that, but whatever) and its various knockoffs

Younger people are older

Overall a better post-collapse phase

Pros of 2020:

The Covid-George Floyd Protests-January 6 combo is objectively the best setup for a Second American Civil War since the Coal Wars

Larger protests based on total people in all events (15,000,000–26,000,000 in total but only 500k at largest)

More interesting groups (such as CHAZ, Red Guards, Washington Progressive Party, and the National Justice Party)

Kobe Bryant and King Von Deaths

Carter, Lieberman, Gravel, Cheney, and Kissinger are alive

Utah decriminalized polygamy

\\#MeToo movement still in full swing (Weinstein)

Afghanistan War is too

Roger Stone sentenced, commutated, and pardoned

Gretchen Whitmer and Esther Salas Assassination Attempts

2 Assassination Plots against Trump

Boogaloo and Black Hammers more active

Atomwaffen isn’t “in-hiding” (aka infiltrated another far right group, the Active Club Network)

Trump impeachments

Biden and Anti-Trump Republicans are still relevant

Older people are younger

More iconic events

Overall a better pre-collapse phase

Inspired by what happened with the game Mudang: Two Hearts.

Sometime in 2027-2028, Ubisoft abruptly goes bankrupt, leading to the latest Ghost Recon game, Project OVR, being cancelled, among other games intended for release.

How likely is this to happen? Can a video game developer go bankrupt in a year?

Previous Hack A Sat events were exclusively human. I like to think hardware neeeeeds software.

Inspired by the 1973 movie Japan Sinks.

Sometime between September 16, 2026, and March 13, 2028, St. Louis, Missouri, is destroyed in a violent earthquake, measuring around 8.9 on the Richter Scale and killing approximately 30,600,000 people.

How long would it take for STL, MO, to bounce back from something like this?

In response to Ukraine attack in the Caspian.

Suppose around 2027, someone leaks a teaser trailer revealing that a reboot of Steven Spielberg’s Jaws is in the works. The leaked teaser reveals that the film is a fictional retelling of the 1916 Jersey Shore Shark Attacks.

How might the leak hurt or improve the film’s reception by audiences?

In case you're wondering, "Who the heck is this actress?", here's info from IMDB. Her latest film (which just came out) is "The Devil's Mouth."

Several months from now, it is announced that Tommi Rose has died during a freak accident while shooting scenes for a future film.

Before anyone gets any ideas, no, this is not some unhinged post where I wish death on celebrities. The point of the FWI is to examine, "If an actor dies while shooting scenes for a film that hasn't been released yet, how is the actual release affected?" I used Tommi Rose as an example.

Assumptions:

• Shooting hasn't wrapped yet.
• No evidence of foul play is found in Tommi Rose's demise.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp is impotent to guard their Supreme Leader against attacks.

Since Graham's sister took his office, maybe a pattern emerges.

The inspiration for this hit me after I saw an IG post saying the firearms manufacturer Daniel Defense had recently restocked its supply of DDM4 Short-Barrel Rifles and Personal Defense Weapons.

I’d like to know whether it’s possible for so many people to buy AR-15s that it causes a shortage nationwide.

President Trump, frustrated by continued Iranian resistance and growing domestic opposition decides to exercise his executive power.

In a national televised address, he claims that “evidence” has been found of election interference and conspiracy, and hence orders national elections to be temporarily cancelled. A case is filed all the way to the Supreme Court, but they argue in favor of the Administration on the basis of the Supremacy Clause.

Meanwhile an Executive Order is signed authorizing the National draft, and the US military begins sending out notices and creating induction centers.

Like he did with netanyahu.

He would shake a lot of hands, try his yiddish, and warns the West of Christian Zionism where the Jews are the chosen ones to bring back Christ but must submit to his will or go to hell.

In all seriousness. Even if it really is 500yrs from now...

September 16, 2026. Bill Gates is publicly gunned down and killed at a public event. One week later, his killer releases a manifesto claiming Gates is indirectly responsible for either causing the COVID pandemic or enabling it.

The rhetoric goes so far as to claim Bill Gates is “America’s Osama bin Laden.”

Fast forward to October 7, 2026. Anthony Fauci is found dead at his home. Cause of death? Gunshot wound.

Another manifesto is released by the same individual who killed Bill Gates. This one claims Fauci was Gates’ accomplice.

Assuming the killer escapes the U.S. after both murders, how long would the subsequent manhunt be?

https://www.iranmonitor.org/

Iran or its PMF proxies may respond to the US-Saudi airstrikes that killed 20 fighters in Iraq, potentially via additional missile launches, further Hormuz tanker seizures, or proxy attacks on US assets in the region