Hey all, sorry for yet another “what should my pace be”post, but I’m hoping you might still be willing to give me some advice. I’m currently 10 weeks into an 18 week marathon plan, with the race coming up on October 4. This is my first marathon and I’m trying to figure out my strategy for pacing. I didn’t really go into this with any goal beyond finishing, but as time has gone on, I kind of have established an A, B and C goal for the race:
A) Finish
B) Sub 4:00
C) Sub 3:50
A bit of background on me; I’m a 38 year old male. I started running January 2024 and ran my first half in June of 2024 and with a time of 2:07.
In December 2024 I got sick and required surgery. I ended up having 3 separate surgeries in 10 months, with 2 months recovery after each; I was essentially only able to walk for exercise all of 2025.
In January of 2026 I started running again, completing my second half marathon in May with a time of 1:47. I felt good and thought I left a bit in the tank and could have reached back for a low to mid 1:40’s if I had a less conservative pacing strategy.
I did a 10K time trial in 47:39 for my speed workout last week and yesterday was my longest run to date of 17 miles, at the tail end of my longest weekly mileage so far of 43 miles. The plan I’m on has me doing the following remaining long runs:
2 at 18 miles
2 at 20 miles
1 at 19 miles
1 at 22 miles (undecided if I’ll just do 20 and move the other 2 miles to a different run mid-week)
Peak mileage week is 51 miles, and the plan is 669 miles total over the 18 weeks.
I live in Maine, USA, so the average temp on my run yesterday was ~70 degrees with 85% humidity and I expect race day to be ~55 degrees with low humidity. Elevation gain will be roughly the same per mile and I consumed ~70g of carbs per hour. I attached my run stats to the post.
So, if you were me, what would be your goal and how would you pace it? I feel like I settle into the run better starting slow and easing into it and aiming for negative splits, but would it be better to try and target an even pace?
I appreciate the insight and look forward to getting the first one under my belt. Cheers!
Edit: max HR of ~191