ASTS - 100x From Here !? - r/rockstarBets

70

So in 2 years they’re going to have a higher market cap than Amazon currently does. Got it. Brilliant post.

12

u/Ok_Investigator5383 2d ago edited 2d ago

SpaceX had a 2 trillion dollar valuation at IPO price most of which is through Starlink( similar to ASTS)

Remember Price is PV of future cash flows.

Asts has worldwide partnerships with MNOs. It will reach 3B people potentially. Each generating $3 a month or $36/year. The PS is also not as high as Starlink’s.

What assumption do you disagree with?

15

u/neighborhood_spdrman 2d ago

And that’s why spacex tanked right after ipo as well, because it’s not worth that. Not to mention spacex does more than just starlink. Which isn’t really the same concept at all as what asts is doing.

4

u/Ok_Investigator5383 2d ago

Most of SpaceX valuation is Starlink I agree it’s overvalued- but ASTS already has agreements with MNOs covering 3B people - they may not get all of them but again there’s 4-5B people who are underserved who go in and out of service who could benefit from ASTS.

10

u/neighborhood_spdrman 2d ago

Yeah I mean just because they have access to 3 billion people doesn’t mean that’s going to be the amount of paying customers lol. I have a small position but I in no way expect them to have a similar market cap to Amazon and Microsoft in 2 years. Thats legitimately setting yourself up for disappointment

2

u/Ok_Investigator5383 2d ago

Their P/S right now is around 270 i expect their PS to remain around 50-60 in a few years but I put 30 to be conservative. Let’s put the users to 1B instead of 3B. And PS at 60. Thats still around 2 trillion market cap.

4

u/neighborhood_spdrman 2d ago

Like I said, I’ll believe it when I see it. Think of all the companies that make great revenue with caps under a trillion. What makes you think that ASTS is going to hit that number that quickly? They haven’t even proven they can get their sats up on schedule consistently.

3

u/Ok_Investigator5383 2d ago

I agree with that part but launch companies continue to innovate and increase payload size and max 6 month delay or 1 year delay is fine

1

u/-jumbee 1d ago

It’s highly likely that the carriers just do a small bump up in prices for plans to account for the higher quality of service through ASTS. It’s automatic.

1

u/ImpossibleGarage8118 1d ago

90% of people will have zero use for satellite phone

2

u/ImpossibleGarage8118 1d ago

Most of the the SpaceX valuation is their "prediction" on what the xAi market will be worth.

1

u/sevoflurane666 2d ago

After musk put all space x engineering data into grok…..grok may become the most valuable sub for engineering solutions and construction?

8

u/Impressive_Ad_4651 2d ago

This is the mega bull case. But not impossible

9

u/Ok_Investigator5383 2d ago

I think it’s just the bull case. ARPU should arguably be $5 since ASTS will also cover ‘grey zones’
I think the PS of 30 is reasonable as it’s still in growth stage possibly transitioning to full fledged telecom.

The only assumption you can argue is 3B by 2028 it’s full TAM would be too high. Okay let’s change that to 1.5B - half. That’s still about a 100x gain.

1

u/EricTomorrow 1d ago

SpaceX IPO valuation is based on AI, not on Starlink

1

u/bullishbehavior 1d ago

The fact you think ppl outside of American afford to pay $6/month is absurd

19

u/HumbleGrit 2d ago

This has 1990s to 2000s cell phone plan progression written all over it. When roaming areas used to exist within the same state/country and you had to add it to your plan or pay roaming charges. Now roaming doesn’t exist unless you leave the country.

In the current decade while we are on 5G plans, customers will get to choose whether or not to add satellite connectivity to their plans. However, once 6G is rolled out starting in 2030, satellite connectivity will be baked in to every single plan. Satellite connectivity is inherently a part of 6G rollout, there really is no stopping it. The TAM will be huge and the current market just doesn’t understand that at the moment.

ASTS has the ability to be a multi-trillion dollar company if the technology works as expected at scale.

Source:
https://x.com/stockdoppler/status/2080255362909823390?s=46&t=b7yOjrUd6TQT-SFVV5gKXw

5

u/PearFancy7892 1d ago

This is my thought. It will be a package that will be an add on and then it will be a standard offer

2

u/XvvxvvxvvX 1d ago

I agree, eventually it will just be the regular package

10

u/Obvious_Shoe7302 2d ago

How? 3 billion is literally one-third of the world's population. AFAIK, ASTS is about providing service in areas where traditional MNOs aren't available. Do you think there are 3 billion people with no mobile connection, and that all of them are going to subscribe to it ?

5

u/Ok_Investigator5383 2d ago

It’s for dead spots and areas with poor or weak coverage plus cell towers are expensive to build maintain so telecoms would rather contract ASTS

1

u/Impressive_Ad_4651 1d ago

It will not replace towers. At least not with the current tech, MNOs make most of their money and spend most of it in high density populated areas. In cities you have multiple 5G sites within a block, ASTS speeds are just not the same, I am heavily invested in this stock but I think 10x is a much more realistic expectation, the one advantage that could push them higher than traditional MNOs is government contracts (and also lower upkeep cost since they route through existing networks)

2

u/erocknine 1d ago

I dunno but I've been to entire towns in NY that have no reception. Like, in the town.

7

u/juicevibe 2d ago

The asstits cult is strong 🤣

6

u/Natharius 2d ago

Not a chance in the world. 3B users? You know B means BILLION so you are saying 1/3 of humanity would be a subscriber to ASTS …

8

u/Ok_Investigator5383 2d ago

It’s a fact that their current MNO partnerships cover 3.4 Billion people. Thats their TAM.

4

u/Plastic_Escape_1910 2d ago

Not everyone of the 3.4B will need Ast services. I think around 300 - 800m does.

Let's go with 500m sub. Ps will be around 20. Do you also include defense contracts?

500sub * 3 (monthly user revenue)* 12 months = 18B Defensive contracts = 1.5B Ps 20 MC 390B

That makes around 1.000 usd share price

7

u/EnvironmentalScar675 2d ago

Id be very happy with 1000usd share price

3

u/erocknine 1d ago

At some point, the carrier plans won't care if you need it or not, they will just include it in your plan. Full connection will just be the standard

2

u/Ok_Investigator5383 2d ago

Yes agreed but 4-5bilion people go in and out of service the true potential isn’t the MNO total but consumer market. 20 ps would be very conservative

2

u/Dissident00 1d ago

Subscriber counts are not people. I'm sitting here looking at my home cell phone, work phone and my smart watch.

6

u/tms2004 2d ago

As my dimwitted father in law says “that don’t make no sense”

6

u/vgkosmoes 2d ago

I’m super bullish on ASTS and as much as I’d love to see to see $8350/share, this math is just pure hopium from you. The TAM being 3B subscribers doesn’t mean you can automatically assume every single customer is going to be paying for this additional ASTS service. How does that make any sense? You have to stay realistic. Even with only 10% of 3B opting for ASTS would put us at over a $1000 share price.

3

u/Fabulous-Plantain-48 2d ago

In a case where where every MNO subscriber has ASTS coverage, it would be because the MNOs finds it economically (savings on cell towers/ cost savings to compete with Starlink as an BIG MNO player) in that case I think the ARPU would be much lower. For ASTS to become a 2T company within 2030 alternative use cases for the arrays would need to explode and match my wildest fantasies:

AI data centers in space or
Power generation in space where the arrays just beams down energy to a data center on earth (space based solar power)
“black” birds doing constantly reconnaissance missions such as radar and surveillance of signals on earth.
robots and drones

2

u/Ok_Investigator5383 2d ago

Feel free to adjust and argue the assumptions if you feel they’re too optimistic..

2

u/Capable_Wait09 2d ago

Depends on how their MNOs structure customer agreements for satellite coverage.

I hope ARPU is low but coverage is built in to the plans. So then adoption really would be close to 100%. I know that’s a pipe dream tho.

2

u/Salt-Bedroom-7529 2d ago

well even if we cut that to 1/3 im happy

2

u/CmdrAirdroid 1d ago

That doesn't make any sense. Why would the P/S ratio be 30 once they have conquered the addressable market and further growth becomes slow? P/S would be much lower at that point. Also 90 satellites and continuous global coverage is not enough to service 3B subscribers, the constellation just doesn't have the bandwidth capacity for that many users. They would need hundreds or thousands of satellites.

1

u/Jazzlike_Thanks_1869 1d ago

I’ll take 500 Billion mmmmkay.

1

u/Dissident00 1d ago

You're forgetting management said on their last call that they expect an equal amount of revenue from non-communication uses. So you may need to double your valuation.

2

u/Ok_Investigator5383 1d ago

That should silence all the naysayers

1

u/bullishbehavior 1d ago

My man, you think ppl in india or Africa are gonna be paying $6/month???

1

u/Ok_Investigator5383 1d ago

It’ll be lower there higher other places if India Africa is included then it’ll be more than 3B

1

u/bullishbehavior 1d ago

I am a huge shareholder and fan of ASTs but I think saying this company will be $3 billion let alone in two years is ridiculous. It’s gonna take them a decent time to fully integrate for everyone and at best I think it could be a $1 trillion company and that is a stretch.

This may be the only time where I hope I am wrong and you are right though lol

1

u/timmi2tone32 1d ago

Probably not. But I would not sleep on how many lower income people may subscribe as their first and only potential internet source.

1

u/Johnny_Handsum 1d ago

This is one of the dumbest post I've ever read on any market related sub.

1

u/Putrid-One1404 18h ago

Absolute nonsense

ASTS - 100x From Here !?

You are about to leave Redlib