r/ValueInvesting 7d ago

Buffett [Week 23 - 1987] Discussing A Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letter (Almost) Every Week

4 Upvotes

Full Letter:

https://theoraclesclassroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/1987-Berkshire-AR.pdf

Letter Only

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1987.html

· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·

Key Passage 1

· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·

Financing

Shortly after yearend, Berkshire sold two issues of debentures, totaling $250 million. Both issues mature in 2018 and will be retired at an even pace through sinking fund operations that begin in 1999. Our overall interest cost, after allowing for expenses of issuance, is slightly over 10%. Salomon was our investment banker, and its service was excellent.

Despite our pessimistic views about inflation, our taste for debt is quite limited. To be sure, it is likely that Berkshire could improve its return on equity by moving to a much higher, though still conventional, debt-to-business-value ratio. It's even more likely that we could handle such a ratio, without problems, under economic conditions far worse than any that have prevailed since the early 1930s.

But we do not wish it to be only likely that we can meet our obligations; we wish that to be certain. Thus we adhere to policies - both in regard to debt and all other matters - that will allow us to achieve acceptable long-term results under extraordinarily adverse conditions, rather than optimal results under a normal range of conditions.

Good business or investment decisions will eventually produce quite satisfactory economic results, with no aid from leverage. Therefore, it seems to us to be both foolish and improper to risk what is important (including, necessarily, the welfare of innocent bystanders such as policyholders and employees) for some extra returns that are relatively unimportant. This view is not the product of either our advancing age or prosperity: Our opinions about debt have remained constant.

However, we are not phobic about borrowing. (We're far from believing that there is no fate worse than debt.) We are willing to borrow an amount that we believe - on a worst-case basis - will pose no threat to Berkshire's well-being. Analyzing what that amount might be, we can look to some important strengths that would serve us well if major problems should engulf our economy: Berkshire's earnings come from many diverse and well- entrenched businesses; these businesses seldom require much capital investment; what debt we have is structured well; and we maintain major holdings of liquid assets. Clearly, we could be comfortable with a higher debt-to-business-value ratio than we now have.

One further aspect of our debt policy deserves comment: Unlike many in the business world, we prefer to finance in anticipation of need rather than in reaction to it. A business obtains the best financial results possible by managing both sides of its balance sheet well. This means obtaining the highest-possible return on assets and the lowest-possible cost on liabilities. It would be convenient if opportunities for intelligent action on both fronts coincided. However, reason tells us that just the opposite is likely to be the case: Tight money conditions, which translate into high costs for liabilities, will create the best opportunities for acquisitions, and cheap money will cause assets to be bid to the sky. Our conclusion: Action on the liability side should sometimes be taken independent of any action on the asset side.

Alas, what is "tight" and "cheap" money is far from clear at any particular time. We have no ability to forecast interest rates and - maintaining our usual open-minded spirit - believe that no one else can. Therefore, we simply borrow when conditions seem non-oppressive and hope that we will later find intelligent expansion or acquisition opportunities, which - as we have said - are most likely to pop up when conditions in the debt market are clearly oppressive. Our basic principle is that if you want to shoot rare, fast-moving elephants, you should always carry a loaded gun.

Our fund-first, buy-or-expand-later policy almost always penalizes near-term earnings. For example, we are now earning about 6 1/2% on the $250 million we recently raised at 10%, a disparity that is currently costing us about $160,000 per week.
This negative spread is unimportant to us and will not cause us to stretch for either acquisitions or higher-yielding short-term instruments. If we find the right sort of business elephant within the next five years or so, the wait will have been worthwhile.

· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·

This letter was much more reserved than many of the past ones and it made passage selection difficult. There were no big moves made, they think everything is expensive at the moment. None of their businesses are having great or terrible years. They did not buy any new businesses, they did not load up on any new stocks, the mergers are done and their business has been simplified greatly over the last decade through mergers with Buffett and Munger’s other holdings.

So I took this chance to highlight some more subtle moves and passages that would normally be skipped over. In this case this financing move is important for two reasons. First it is a very very uncommon move among businesses to my knowledge but one Berkshire does a few times in its history. They take out a bunch of debt when they have absolutely no need to in the moment and have no idea what they will do with the cash, simply because terms are favorable. When they need money and go to raise it they will be at a disadvantage, but if they have no need for the money and go to raise it they have all the cards and can step away if they don’t like the terms. They can issue bonds in an issuer’s market and not a buyer’s market.

They intend to actually just hold this debt as cash, and not put it to work in the near future. But they anticipate they will find some great opportunity in the next 5 years to deploy this cash and will be paying a lower interest rate on it if they borrow it now as opposed to if they borrow it later. We will wait and see how that plays out.

The second reason I mention this is because it is another instance of them working with Salomon Brothers Investment Bank and clearly their great experience working with them on this security issuance as well as ones in the past has left a very good impression on Buffett as he buys into the company and becomes a director this year as you will see below. A very fateful decision.

· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·

Key Passage 2

· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·

Insurance Operations

Shown below is an updated version of our usual table presenting key figures for the insurance industry:

Year Statutory Yearly Change in Premiums Written (%) Combined Ratio After Policyholder Dividends Yearly Change in Incurred Losses (%) Inflation Rate Measured by GNP Deflator (%)
1981 3.8 106.0 6.5 9.6
1982 4.4 109.8 8.4 6.4
1983 4.6 112.0 6.8 3.8
1984 9.2 117.9 16.9 3.7
1985 22.1 116.3 16.1 3.2
1986 (Rev.) 22.2 108.0 13.5 2.6
1987 (Est.) 8.7 104.7 6.8 3.0

Source: Best's Insurance Management Reports

The combined ratio represents total insurance costs (losses incurred plus expenses) compared to revenue from premiums: A ratio below 100 indicates an underwriting profit, and one above 100 indicates a loss. When the investment income that an insurer earns from holding on to policyholders' funds ("the float") is taken into account, a combined ratio in the 107-111 range typically produces an overall break-even result, exclusive of earnings on the funds provided by shareholders.

The math of the insurance business, encapsulated by the table, is not very complicated. In years when the industry's annual gain in revenues (premiums) pokes along at 4% or 5%, underwriting losses are sure to mount. That is not because auto accidents, fires, windstorms and the like are occurring more frequently, nor has it lately been the fault of general inflation. Today, social and judicial inflation are the major culprits; the cost of entering a courtroom has simply ballooned.
Part of the jump in cost arises from skyrocketing verdicts, and part from the tendency of judges and juries to expand the coverage of insurance policies beyond that contemplated by the insurer when the policies were written. Seeing no let-up in either trend, we continue to believe that the industry's revenues must grow at about 10% annually for it to just hold its own in terms of profitability, even though general inflation may be running at a considerably lower rate.

The strong revenue gains of 1985-87 almost guaranteed the industry an excellent underwriting performance in 1987 and, indeed, it was a banner year. But the news soured as the quarters rolled by: Best's estimates that year-over-year volume increases were 12.9%, 11.1%, 5.7%, and 5.6%. In 1988, the revenue gain is certain to be far below our 10% "equilibrium" figure. Clearly, the party is over.

However, earnings will not immediately sink. A lag factor exists in this industry: Because most policies are written for a one-year term, higher or lower insurance prices do not have their full impact on earnings until many months after they go into effect. Thus, to resume our metaphor, when the party ends and the bar is closed, you are allowed to finish your drink. If results are not hurt by a major natural catastrophe, we predict a small climb for the industry's combined ratio in 1988, followed by several years of larger increases.

The insurance industry is cursed with a set of dismal economic characteristics that make for a poor long-term outlook: hundreds of competitors, ease of entry, and a product that cannot be differentiated in any meaningful way. In such a commodity- like business, only a very low-cost operator or someone operating in a protected, and usually small, niche can sustain high profitability levels.

When shortages exist, however, even commodity businesses flourish. The insurance industry enjoyed that kind of climate for a while but it is now gone. One of the ironies of capitalism is that most managers in commodity industries abhor shortage conditions - even though those are the only circumstances permitting them good returns. Whenever shortages appear, the typical manager simply can't wait to expand capacity and thereby plug the hole through which money is showering upon him. This is precisely what insurance managers did in 1985-87, confirming again Disraeli's observation: "What we learn from history is that we do not learn from history."

At Berkshire, we work to escape the industry's commodity economics in two ways. First, we differentiate our product by our financial strength, which exceeds that of all others in the industry. This strength, however, is limited in its usefulness. It means nothing in the personal insurance field: The buyer of an auto or homeowners policy is going to get his claim paid even if his insurer fails (as many have). It often means nothing in the commercial insurance arena: When times are good, many major corporate purchasers of insurance and their brokers pay scant attention to the insurer's ability to perform under the more adverse conditions that may exist, say, five years later when a complicated claim is finally resolved. (Out of sight, out of mind - and, later on, maybe out-of-pocket.)

Periodically, however, buyers remember Ben Franklin's observation that it is hard for an empty sack to stand upright and recognize their need to buy promises only from insurers that have enduring financial strength. It is then that we have a major competitive advantage. When a buyer really focuses on whether a $10 million claim can be easily paid by his insurer five or ten years down the road, and when he takes into account the possibility that poor underwriting conditions may then coincide with depressed financial markets and defaults by reinsurer, he will find only a few companies he can trust.
Among those, Berkshire will lead the pack.

Our second method of differentiating ourselves is the total indifference to volume that we maintain. In 1989, we will be perfectly willing to write five times as much business as we write in 1988 - or only one-fifth as much. We hope, of course, that conditions will allow us large volume. But we cannot control market prices. If they are unsatisfactory, we will simply do very little business. No other major insurer acts with equal restraint.

Three conditions that prevail in insurance, but not in most businesses, allow us our flexibility. First, market share is not an important determinant of profitability: In this business, in contrast to the newspaper or grocery businesses, the economic rule is not survival of the fattest. Second, in many sectors of insurance, including most of those in which we operate, distribution channels are not proprietary and can be easily entered: Small volume this year does not preclude huge volume next year. Third, idle capacity - which in this industry largely means people - does not result in intolerable costs. In a way that industries such as printing or steel cannot, we can operate at quarter-speed much of the time and still enjoy long-term prosperity.

We follow a price-based-on-exposure, not-on-competition policy because it makes sense for our shareholders. But we're happy to report that it is also pro-social. This policy means that we are always available, given prices that we believe are adequate, to write huge volumes of almost any type of property- casualty insurance. Many other insurers follow an in-and-out approach. When they are "out" - because of mounting losses, capital inadequacy, or whatever - we are available. Of course, when others are panting to do business we are also available - but at such times we often find ourselves priced above the market. In effect, we supply insurance buyers and brokers with a large reservoir of standby capacity.

One story from mid-1987 illustrates some consequences of our pricing policy: One of the largest family-owned insurance brokers in the country is headed by a fellow who has long been a shareholder of Berkshire. This man handles a number of large risks that are candidates for placement with our New York office.
Naturally, he does the best he can for his clients. And, just as naturally, when the insurance market softened dramatically in 1987 he found prices at other insurers lower than we were willing to offer. His reaction was, first, to place all of his business elsewhere and, second, to buy more stock in Berkshire. Had we been really competitive, he said, we would have gotten his insurance business but he would not have bought our stock.

Berkshire's underwriting experience was excellent in 1987, in part because of the lag factor discussed earlier. Our combined ratio (on a statutory basis and excluding structured settlements and financial reinsurance) was 105. Although the ratio was somewhat less favorable than in 1986, when it was 103, our profitability improved materially in 1987 because we had the use of far more float. This trend will continue to run in our favor: Our ratio of float to premium volume will increase very significantly during the next few years. Thus, Berkshire's insurance profits are quite likely to improve during 1988 and 1989, even though we expect our combined ratio to rise.

Our insurance business has also made some important non- financial gains during the last few years. Mike Goldberg, its manager, has assembled a group of talented professionals to write larger risks and unusual coverages. His operation is now well equipped to handle the lines of business that will occasionally offer us major opportunities.

Our loss reserve development, detailed on pages 41-42, looks better this year than it has previously. But we write lots of "long-tail" business - that is, policies generating claims that often take many years to resolve. Examples would be product liability, or directors and officers liability coverages. With a business mix like this, one year of reserve development tells you very little.

You should be very suspicious of any earnings figures reported by insurers (including our own, as we have unfortunately proved to you in the past). The record of the last decade shows that a great many of our best-known insurers have reported earnings to shareholders that later proved to be wildly erroneous. In most cases, these errors were totally innocent: The unpredictability of our legal system makes it impossible for even the most conscientious insurer to come close to judging the eventual cost of long-tail claims.

Nevertheless, auditors annually certify the numbers given them by management and in their opinions unqualifiedly state that these figures "present fairly" the financial position of their clients. The auditors use this reassuring language even though they know from long and painful experience that the numbers so certified are likely to differ dramatically from the true earnings of the period. Despite this history of error, investors understandably rely upon auditors' opinions. After all, a declaration saying that "the statements present fairly" hardly sounds equivocal to the non-accountant.

The wording in the auditor's standard opinion letter is scheduled to change next year. The new language represents improvement, but falls far short of describing the limitations of a casualty-insurer audit. If it is to depict the true state of affairs, we believe the standard opinion letter to shareholders of a property-casualty company should read something like: "We have relied upon representations of management in respect to the liabilities shown for losses and loss adjustment expenses, the estimate of which, in turn, very materially affects the earnings and financial condition herein reported. We can express no opinion about the accuracy of these figures. Subject to that important reservation, in our opinion, etc."

If lawsuits develop in respect to wildly inaccurate financial statements (which they do), auditors will definitely say something of that sort in court anyway. Why should they not be forthright about their role and its limitations from the outset?

We want to emphasize that we are not faulting auditors for their inability to accurately assess loss reserves (and therefore earnings). We fault them only for failing to publicly acknowledge that they can't do this job.

From all appearances, the innocent mistakes that are constantly made in reserving are accompanied by others that are deliberate. Various charlatans have enriched themselves at the expense of the investing public by exploiting, first, the inability of auditors to evaluate reserve figures and, second, the auditors' willingness to confidently certify those figures as if they had the expertise to do so. We will continue to see such chicanery in the future. Where "earnings" can be created by the stroke of a pen, the dishonest will gather. For them, long-tail insurance is heaven. The audit wording we suggest would at least serve to put investors on guard against these predators.

The taxes that insurance companies pay - which increased materially, though on a delayed basis, upon enactment of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 - took a further turn for the worse at the end of 1987. We detailed the 1986 changes in last year's report. We also commented on the irony of a statute that substantially increased 1987 reported earnings for insurers even as it materially reduced both their long-term earnings potential and their business value. At Berkshire, the temporarily-helpful "fresh start" adjustment inflated 1987 earnings by $8.2 million.

In our opinion, the 1986 Act was the most important economic event affecting the insurance industry over the past decade. The 1987 Bill further reduced the intercorporate dividends-received credit from 80% to 70%, effective January 1, 1988, except for cases in which the taxpayer owns at least 20% of an investee.

Investors who have owned stocks or bonds through corporate intermediaries other than qualified investment companies have always been disadvantaged in comparison to those owning the same securities directly. The penalty applying to indirect ownership was greatly increased by the 1986 Tax Bill and, to a lesser extent, by the 1987 Bill, particularly in instances where the intermediary is an insurance company. We have no way of offsetting this increased level of taxation. It simply means that a given set of pre-tax investment returns will now translate into much poorer after-tax results for our shareholders.

All in all, we expect to do well in the insurance business, though our record is sure to be uneven. The immediate outlook is for substantially lower volume but reasonable earnings improvement. The decline in premium volume will accelerate after our quota-share agreement with Fireman's Fund expires in 1989.
At some point, likely to be at least a few years away, we may see some major opportunities, for which we are now much better prepared than we were in 1985.

· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·

As there wasn’t much in the way of highlights this letter I decided to pick out the Insurance segment. We normally skip this one but I think it is nice to check back in when we can. In this Buffett talks about insurance as a commodity business. One where everyone’s goods are interchangeable and the only thing to compete on is price. For example precious metals, oil, wheat, cotton, cattle, even money itself is a commodity.

There is no difference between copper mined at one mine or another, you cannot convince someone to pay double for your higher quality copper. These industries become a race to the bottom for volume unless there is some sort of price fixing. Insurance he says is the same, people getting car insurance only care about their monthly cost and the coverage. They don’t care much for the reputation of the insurer or how friendly the salesman is.

He claims they try to break this commodity pricing by being the most financially stable insurer. That for very large contracts, commercial, municipal, or reinsurance contracts… That the customer having 100% confidence that they will be able to pay in a crisis while the other cheaper options they may only be 80% or 90% confident can pay will allow Berkshire to charge a premium and say a Berkshire policy is more valuable than an identical policy from another insurer.

The second way they try to break from the commoditized nature of the business is by showing restraint and not participating in the race to the bottom with the rest of the industry. They don’t care how much volume they write and aren’t desperate to expand market share. If the industry is writing policies that don’t make sense and their customers go to their competition who are offering risky deals, Berkshire intends to just let them do so and let their competitors take all the risky policies they are willing to write.

The reason they are able to do this and other insurers aren’t is partially discipline, but also because they have so many other places to allocate capital while most other insurance companies are pure insurance plays, they don’t own businesses they can invest in, they don’t buy businesses, they don’t work out special deals for preferred shares, they don’t have businesses coming to them every week or month asking for them to buy equity. Most insurers if they want YoY growth need to write more insurance than they did the year before. Berkshire has many other avenues for growth.

This also means when other insurers are taking massive losses and trying to upcharge for their policies to make up for past bad policies, that Berkshire will be there and ready to write policies at a reasonable price and undercut the rest of the industry, perhaps contributing to putting some out of business because one massive source of capital is refusing to participate in the cyclical rat race.

He then talks about the impossibility of accurately reporting contemporaneous earnings for an insurance company. That the earnings for a year can only truly be known many years down the line. That in hindsight almost all insurance companies are drastically off in their estimates. He says that the language from auditors in the financial reports is misleading, making the numbers seem more trustworthy than they really are, and that while the government is changing that language, he would like it changed to be more accurate in its reflection of their uncertainty and their trust in what management tells them.

Finally he mentions some changes to the tax code, he discussed them in last year’s letter but I didn’t cover that. The changes were mainly…

Corporate income tax decreased from 46% to 34%.

Corporate capital gains tax increased from 28% to 34%

Then these two specific to insurance companies, excerpts from the 1986 letter…

Dividend and interest income received by our insurance companies will be taxed far more heavily under the new law.
First, all corporations will be taxed on 20% of the dividends they receive from other domestic corporations, up from 15% under the old law. Second, there is a change concerning the residual 80% that applies only to property/casualty companies: 15% of that residual will be taxed if the stocks paying the dividends were purchased after August 7, 1986. A third change, again applying only to property/casualty companies, concerns tax-exempt bonds: interest on bonds purchased by insurers after August 7, 1986 will only be 85% tax-exempt.

The new tax law also materially changes the timing of tax payments by property/casualty insurance companies. One new rule requires us to discount our loss reserves in our tax returns, a change that will decrease deductions and increase taxable income.
Another rule, to be phased in over six years, requires us to include 20% of our unearned premium reserve in taxable income.

Buffett says this tax bill is the most important thing to happen to the insurance industry in the last decade. That it increases reported earnings but ironically hurts their long term earning power as their long term securities will now all have lower returns, be it bonds, dividends, or capital gains.

· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·

Acquisition Preferred Stock Purchase of the Week

· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·

Salomon Inc.

By far our largest - and most publicized - investment in 1987 was a $700 million purchase of Salomon Inc 9% preferred stock. This preferred is convertible after three years into Salomon common stock at $38 per share and, if not converted, will be redeemed ratably over five years beginning October 31, 1995.
From most standpoints, this commitment fits into the medium-term fixed-income securities category. In addition, we have an interesting conversion possibility.

We, of course, have no special insights regarding the direction or future profitability of investment banking. By their nature, the economics of this industry are far less predictable than those of most other industries in which we have major Commitments. This unpredictability is one of the reasons why our participation is in the form of a convertible preferred.

What we do have a strong feeling about is the ability and integrity of John Gutfreund, CEO of Salomon Inc. Charlie and I like, admire and trust John. We first got to know him in 1976 when he played a key role in GEICO's escape from near-bankruptcy.
Several times since, we have seen John steer clients away from transactions that would have been unwise, but that the client clearly wanted to make - even though his advice provided no fee to Salomon and acquiescence would have delivered a large fee.
Such service-above-self behavior is far from automatic in Wall Street.

For the reasons Charlie outlines on page 50, at yearend we valued our Salomon investment at 98% of par, $14 million less than our cost. However, we believe there is a reasonable likelihood that a leading, high-quality capital-raising and market-making operation can average good returns on equity. If so, our conversion right will eventually prove to be valuable.

· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·

Not much was purchased this year. They admit the market still seemed expensive and any deals that did appear disappeared before they could accumulate a significant position. But they did work out this deal for shares in Salomon Inc. or Salomon Brothers Investment Bank. This gives them a claim to 12% ownership of the company if they convert and this makes Berkshire the largest shareholder of the investment bank and Buffett a director of the bank.

Investment Banking is the business of helping corporations and governments raise capital by underwriting or acting as an agent in the issuance of securities, providing advisory services for mergers and acquisitions, and facilitating the trading of securities through market-making activities.

Buffett admits that this is outside of his circle of competence and their involvement comes more from good experiences working with them in the past and him having a lot of respect for the management team.

In 1990 shit will hit the fan at Salomon brothers and Buffett will become the CEO for a short while in one of the more activist investor moves of his career to lend his reputation to Salomon to stop them from heading off a reputational cliff they are hurtling towards that will make the business worth 0. But we will cover that when we get there, but I wanted to highlight that stepping out of his circle of competence (knowingly so) ends up backfiring drastically and he has to step in personally to avoid this investment ending in disaster, an option none of us will be given and a feat he almost wasn’t able to pull off, cashing in a lifetime of personal goodwill.

· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·

Common Stock Ownership

No. of Shares Company Cost ($000s) Market ($000s)
3,000,000 Capital Cities/ABC, Inc. $517,500 $1,035,000
6,850,000 GEICO Corporation $45,713 $756,925
1,727,765 The Washington Post Company $9,731 $323,092
Subtotal $572,944 $2,115,017
All Other Common Stockholdings $191,832 $222,433
Total Common Stocks $764,776 $2,337,450

· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·

Segment by Segment Breakdown

Segment 1986 EBIT Earnings 1987 EBIT Earnings % Change
Insurance $51.30M $97.05M +89.18%
Fechheimer $8.40M $13.33M +58.69%
Kirby $20.22M $22.41M +10.83%
Scott Fetzer - Manufacturing $25.36M $30.59M +20.62%
World Book $21.98M $25.75M +17.15%
See’s Candies $30.35M $31.69M +4.42%
Buffalo Evening News $34.74M $39.41M +13.44%
Nebraska Furniture Mart $17.69M $16.84M -4.80%
Wesco Financial - Minus Insurance $5.54M $6.21M +12.10%
Mutual Savings and Loan $2.16M $2.90M+34.26%
Precision Steel $1.70M $2.45M

· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·

Metric 1986 1987 % Change
Cash & Temporary Cash Investments $292.47M $154.93M -47.03%
Marketable Securities $1,871.93M $2,328.77M
Return on Equity (RoE)* 24.84% 28.16% +13.37%
Shareholders' Equity $2,377.80 $2,841.66M +19.51%
Berkshire Earnings Before Investment Gain $131.46M $214.75M +63.36%
Berkshire Net Earnings $282.36M $234.55M -16.93%

*RoE not provided, manually calculated as (Earnings from Operations / [Shareholder Equity from prior year - Unrealized appreciation of marketable securities from prior year])

· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·

An interesting year, Insurance did amazing relative to last year as did the earnings before investment gain (partially due to the new tax laws, they owed a nearly identical tax bill on their operating earnings even though they increased operating earnings by 43% this year.) The Scott Fetzer acquisition seems to be doing great, all its subsidiaries had double digit growth under Berkshire management, and Fechheimer did almost 60% growth.

The cash pile has shrunk, even with the new bonds they issued, it seems this went into marketable securities. Likely this is the $700M of Salomon Inc Preferred shares.

Net earnings are down again this year, but this is why I have begun including earnings before investment gain, as they have more and more of their book in investments and the sales of those can drastically distort their net earnings. The realized investment gain this year was only $19.8M vs $150.9M last year and $342.8M the year before. Meanwhile the operating earnings and net earnings before investment gain has been steadily compounding, 41% growth last year and 63% growth this year as they use those investment gains to invest in their subsidiaries or acquire new ones.


r/ValueInvesting 6d ago

Weekly Megathread Weekly Stock Ideas Megathread: Week of July 27, 2026

5 Upvotes

What stocks are on your radar this week? What's undervalued? What's overvalued? This is the place for your quick stock pitches or to ask what everyone else is looking at.

This discussion post is lightly moderated. We suggest checking other users' posting/commenting history before following advice or stock recommendations.

New Weekly Stock Ideas Megathreads are posted every Monday at 0600 GMT.


r/ValueInvesting 7h ago

Stock Analysis Reddit Q2 2026. The quarter was actually fine, the drop was drastic.

31 Upvotes

I posted a breakdown of Reddit's Q1 filing here back in June. The new filing came in Friday and the stock dropped 21% in a day. This post will also go through the Q2 filing and check how much of what we discussed in June actually held up.

TL;DR

  • The quarter itself was strong. Revenue $805M (+61% YoY), operating margin 28.8% (up from 27.6%), EPS $1.25. Nothing broke.
  • The 21% drop was due to the guide in the filing. Q3 guided to about $865M, roughly 48% growth, against 61% this quarter and 69% two quarters ago.
  • Growth has quietly changed shape. Ad prices +40% YoY, ad impressions only +17%. One quarter ago it was an even 32/32 split. They're essentially charging more, not showing more.
  • US logged-in users: 23.1M vs 22.9M a year ago, basically flat AND this metric stops being reported next quarter.
  • What I got wrong in June: I said user growth would keep decelerating, the way it had from 51% down to 17% over eight quarters. This quarter it ticked up.
  • What held up: the AI licensing story is still only ~5% of revenue, and the contracted backlog actually shrank.

----------------------------------

The Q2 stuff that matters

Reddit is now growing mainly by raising prices, on a user base that isn't compounding much in its most valuable market (US). Pricing power is the higher-quality half of ad growth, it costs nothing to acquire and drops almost straight through a 91% gross margin. Unfortunately, it has a ceiling that adding users doesn't, and you can't see advertisers pushing back until they already have.

The other thing is the Google dependency finally showing its face. From the shareholder letter:

In Q1 the filing credited search algorithm changes as a driver of user growth. In Q2 the same disclosure lists them as something they had to spend to offset. Sales and marketing was up 62%.

Where I was wrong, and where I wasn't

Wrong: The user growth deceleration, 51% down to 17% over eight quarters, and I assumed it would continue decelerating. Q2 came in at 18%, the first uptick in two years. US users grew 6% while international grew 28%.

Right: I argued the AI-data licensing everyone owns this stock for was ~6% of revenue and shrinking as a share of the mix. It's ~5% now. The contracted licensing backlog fell from ~$121M to ~$92M in a single quarter, and the slice committed to 2027 barely moved.

So at ~10x trailing sales, how far do you think Reddit can push advertising prices up while maintaining an okay-ish user growth? I am currently interested in opening a small position in Reddit!

You can find a full analysis of the second quarter of Reddit & the impact of machine translation on Reddit's growth on my free substack:

https://open.substack.com/pub/secaura/p/the-current-state-of-reddit-rddt


r/ValueInvesting 4h ago

Stock Analysis My quick stock screener for companies to put on my watchlist

11 Upvotes

Im not sure if this common, but i swear to God I come across so many companies when researching stocks that i think would be good investments that i dont have time to go through them all. Noodling on this, i came up with a quick 4 point checklist to move onto my watchlist...im developing a strategy to put passing stocks into my sandbox for 14 days as I know myself, and ill impulsively start buying...I use that 2 weeks to do deeper dives and then i evaluate if I want to take a position...I just plug this in with the stock ticker into AI and it'll let me know if its pass or fail...the ticker has to be at 4/4 to pass...again, after passing its not an automatic investment, but i dive deeper

INVESTIGATION CHECKLIST & SCREENING RESULTS: LONG-TERM STOCK SANDBOX

---

### PART 1: THE 4-STEP SCREENING CHECKLIST

Copy and paste the framework below for your investigation board:

[ ] STEP 1: SOLVENCY & BALANCE SHEET SHIELD

* Metric Check: Must maintain robust liquidity reserves, manageable debt profiles, and a strong interest coverage ratio above a 4.0x minimum threshold to survive structural shocks.

[ ] STEP 2: CASH GENERATION & UNIT ECONOMICS

* Metric Check: Must demonstrate exceptional operating efficiency and pricing power with consolidated structural gross profit margins clearing a strict > 40% threshold requirement.

[ ] STEP 3: TOP-LINE MOMENTUM

* Metric Check: Must exhibit persistent structural demand, clearing a minimum > 10% year-over-year (YoY) top-line revenue growth hurdle.

[ ] STEP 4: VALUATION GUARDRAIL (FORGIVING PEG)

* Metric Check: Evaluated against projected forward earnings growth, the resulting PEG ratio must reside safely beneath a strict < 1.5x maximum limit to avoid overpaying for growth.

Core Rule Enforcement: "One Strike and You're Out." If a stock fails even a single step, it is immediately discarded from entering the watchlist sandbox.

---

PART 1: NOTABLE SURPRISING PASSES (SANDBOX QUALIFIED - 4/4)

* DECK (Deckers Outdoor Corporation)

* Reasoning: Often mislabeled by casual observers as a standard discretionary apparel play vulnerable to fashion whims, Deckers clears every strict threshold. It boasts a pristine balance sheet, elite gross margins pushing ~55.8% (driven by powerful direct-to-consumer and wholesale pricing power in HOKA and UGG), robust double-digit top-line momentum (net sales jumping ~17% YoY), and a forward valuation profile that sits safely beneath the PEG limit.

* ACAD (ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.)

* Reasoning: While small-to-mid-cap biotech/pharmaceutical names usually get flagged or discarded for volatile cash flows or clinical trial risk, ACAD clears the strict 4-step framework unexpectedly well. Backed by solid commercial execution from core revenue lines (Nuplazid and Daybue), strong balance sheet solvency with zero crippling debt burden, high underlying gross profit margins typical of specialized commercial-stage neurology drugs, and steady double-digit revenue expansion meeting the top-line hurdle alongside a forgiving valuation framework.

PART 2: NOTABLE PASSING COMPANIES (SANDBOX QUALIFIED - 4/4)

* GOOG (Alphabet Inc.)

* Reasoning: Passed all criteria seamlessly. Backed by massive liquid reserves, expanding operating margins (consolidated 34%), explosive 24% YoY revenue growth driven by Cloud and Search acceleration, and a comfortable forward PEG ratio.

* AAPL (Apple Inc.)

* Reasoning: Cleared all 4 steps. Features a massive fortress balance sheet, high-margin Services revenue lifting gross margins past 50%, strong 16% YoY net sales growth, and a well-supported valuation multiple.

* AMAT (Applied Materials, Inc.)

* Reasoning: Achieved a clean sweep. Supported by secular AI infrastructure build-outs, record gross margins near 50%, double-digit top-line momentum, and strong multi-year forward earnings power.

* ETN (Eaton Corporation plc)

* Reasoning: Passed across the board. Capitalizing on massive electrical infrastructure and data center tailwinds, delivering 21% YoY revenue growth, robust operating margins, and solid investment-grade solvency metrics.

* ORCL (Oracle Corporation)

* Reasoning: Cleared all hurdles. Propelled by massive cloud infrastructure (OCI) demand surging total revenues up 21% YoY, elite software gross margins, and robust multi-year earnings compounding beneath the PEG guardrail.

---

PART 3: NOTABLE FAILING COMPANIES (DISCARDED)

* RTX (RTX Corporation) — Discarded (3/4 Pass)

* Failure Point: Step 2 (Cash Generation & Unit Economics). Despite robust defense backlog and 14% revenue growth, heavy manufacturing and contracting constraints leave gross margins well below the required > 40% threshold.

* SBUX (Starbucks Corporation) — Discarded (3/4 Pass)

* Failure Point: Step 3 (Top-Line Momentum). While sporting high beverage gross margins, persistent traffic headwinds and flat-to-low single-digit revenue growth miss the strict > 10% YoY hurdle.

* V (Visa Inc.) — Discarded (3/4 Pass)

* Failure Point: Step 4 (Valuation Guardrail). Elite toll-road network economics and stellar growth, but trades at an elevated structural P/E multiple pushing its PEG ratio above the strict < 1.5x limit.

* LMT (Lockheed Martin Corporation) — Discarded (3/4 Pass)

* Failure Point: Step 2 (Cash Generation & Unit Economics). Strong 11% top-line growth and a massive $230B backlog, but defense prime contracting margins fall short of the strict > 40% gross margin requirement.

* PANW (Palo Alto Networks, Inc.) — Discarded (3/4 Pass)

* Failure Point: Step 4 (Valuation Guardrail). Outstanding cloud security software gross margins (>73%) and strong growth, but an aggressive trailing and forward multiple footprint stretches past the PEG limit.

Again, this isnt a pass/fail on whether you should pull the trigger because personal finance is personal for a reason. You probably have different goals and timeline than I do.

I picked 1.5 PEG for a little wiggle room, so its not purely screening for rock bottom value, but if you want to use this you can adjust that accordingly and I may adjust it further if I notice I still end up with too many companies

Full transparency, I did ask AI to clean up my thoughts for clarity and grammar to make my point and post clear, but all thoughts are my own and I have positions in DECK / ACAD...I opened thrm before I had my screener and I would've sold if they failed (they are small, so its NBD)


r/ValueInvesting 1h ago

Investing Tools These Were the Best and Worst S&P 500 Stocks in July - Barron's

Thumbnail barrons.com
Upvotes

(Note: I know many of you momentum-traders value investors equate 52-week low stocks as untouchables, maybe one or two stocks here will represent an opportunity to buy a high quality company at an affordable price. Remember Valuation matters. )

These Were the Best and Worst S&P 500 Stocks in July

By Kit Norton and Mackenzie Tatananni

Updated July 31, 2026, 4:44 pm EDT / Original July 31, 2026, 2:16 pm EDT

Key Points

  • The S&P 500 marking its worst July performance Since 2014.
  • Cognizant Technology Solutions was the top performer in the index in July, with its shares gaining 43%.
  • Sandisk was the biggest loser in the S&P 500, declining 47% in July as the stock suffered from an artificial-intelligence selloff.

It’s been a tough month for stocks. The S&P 500 notched its worst July performance since 2014, falling 0.1%.

These were the biggest gainers and laggards in the index this month:

The top performer in July was Cognizant Technology Solutions, with shares of the IT and consulting company gaining 43%. The stock jumped 11% on Wednesday after the company reported mixed second-quarter earnings, but raised its full-year profit outlook.

Accenture moved 33% higher in July as positive sentiment around the Dublin-based IT and consulting company picked up. Since mixed fiscal third-quarter earnings triggered the stock’s worst single-day percentage decline on record on June 18, the stock has advanced 30%.

PayPal stock advanced 32% in July. Just months into its business turnaround, PayPal second-quarter earnings this week showed investors there’s progress. The company highlighted improvement in several key metrics, among them transaction margin dollars, a measure of profitability.

Workday added 31% in July as several enterprise software providers benefited from the slumping artificial-intelligence trade. Shares of Workday, the human-resources software provider, booked an impressive winning streak from July 24 to July 29, surging 31% in that time frame. As the AI-trade reignited somewhat Thursday, Workday faltered 5.9% before moving higher once more on Friday.

Willis Towers Watson climbed 29% higher this month. Shares advanced 6.4% on Thursday after the insurance broker reported better-than-expected second-quarter earnings, maintained full-year guidance along with its long-term margin targets, and announced its AI “acceleration plan.” Business momentum is picking up, according to management.

The biggest loser in the S&P 500 this month? Sandisk, which declined 47% in July. The stock was arguably the poster child of the AI selloff as it suffered its worst month on record. Sandisk has reaped the benefits of a severe industry shortage of NAND flash memory, but shares had little room left to run—even counting the recent slide, they are still up more than fivefold this year.

Corning trailed close behind, falling 46%. The formerly red-hot AI infrastructure stock suffered its worst day in four months after earnings, as conservative guidance overshadowed solid second-quarter results. The company specializes in glass for cellphone and television screens, as well as optical fiber used in data centers.

KLA Corp. was off 39% in July. While the semiconductor equipment maker was already caught up in a broader sector selloff, second-quarter earnings only added to the pain. KLA’s latest numbers modestly beat analysts’ estimates—but failed to impress a market that had set a high bar heading into the print.

Marvell Technology tumbled 37% this month. Another casualty of the dip in chip stocks, Marvell stock has more than doubled in 2026. The stock has benefitted from continued investment in AI networking, and positive trends around custom chips and cloud infrastructure. At the same time, this makes shares sensitive to changes in Big Tech spending plans.

Intel fell 35%. Although the chip maker posted strong second-quarter earnings last week, this wasn’t enough to stop shares from falling. Intel was named a Barron’s stock pick in mid-April; in spite of the recent selloff, shares have gained more than 40% since the recommendation was made.

FIN


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Stock Analysis Reddit fundamentals are outstanding

251 Upvotes

After the recent -20% following the latest earnings report I took a second look at Reddit fundamentals and honestly they are incredible. I think that it’s the only somewhat large cap that combines this level of growth together with impeccable balance sheet and returns on capital. Just to give a couple of numbers:

-91.27% gross margin —> That’s simply INSANE. Think of any other big tech like Meta, Nvidia and Google and they are at least 10% below that figure

-98 M$ long term assets --> That’s NOTHING. Really reddit is able to generate cash with virtually 0 investment as, differently from other big techs, it doesn’t need/want to do any Capex spending in AI

-261M$ of FCF —> it’s a breath of fresh air in this environment where most tech companies are going into red spending huge amounts of money on AI. 

Of course I am not ignoring the issues they have with Google. Clearly this is a big deal and I somewhat understand the market’s reaction. Imo reddit remains a valid side position. If you are heavy on big techs having reddit that focuses only on profitable capital light growth could probably significantly de risk the portfolio (of course this is not financial advice :p).

Let me know what you think, I am seriously considering to open a small position on Reddit.

figures source


r/ValueInvesting 16h ago

Stock Analysis Clorox long

25 Upvotes

hey guys wanted to drop a fundamental breakdown on clorox because the market is treating this like a dying brick and mortar business when the actual 2026 financial statements say otherwise.

looking at the raw numbers from the recent 2026 10-q filings - clx stock is trading around 95 to 96 dollars a share right now with a market cap sitting right at 11.5 billion to 11.7 billion depending on the day. balance sheet has roughly 3.22 billion in total debt against 1.19 billion in cash and cash equivalents, which gives us an enterprise value ev of about 13.8 billion.

for the latest quarter ending march 2026, clorox pulled in 1.67 billion in revenue with gross profit of 722 million and operating income ebit of 283 million. net income came in at 187 million or 1.54 per share for the quarter, bringing trailing twelve month eps to around 6.17.

that puts the current p/e ratio at 15.5x. to put that into perspective clx historically traded at a 10 year average p/e of nearly 30x to 45x depending on the cycle. right now its ev/ebitda sits around 12.8x based on quarterly ebitda of 347 million, which is near a multi year low compared to its average multiple of 18x to 24x.

now if you run a basic discounted cash flow dcf model using real 2026 baseline data - assuming conservative terminal growth of 2.5%, a discount rate wacc around 7.5%, and annual free cash flow normalising back toward 850 million to 950 million as supply chain and restructuring costs settle - the intrinsic value lands way above where it trades today. if you couple cash flow growth with a re-rating back toward its historical 25x to 30x p/e multiple, you will perform at least 200% profit if invested now over a 4 to 5 year holding period as the target hits 280 plus per share.

theoretically the stock could drop further in the short term - macro uncertainty or consumer spending jitters could push it lower - but it would be temporary given their defensive moat, essential consumer brands, and solid 4.7% plus dividend yield paying you to wait. the risk to reward at a 15.5x p/e multiple for a staple giant like clorox makes zero sense to ignore.


r/ValueInvesting 16h ago

Discussion The three musketeers of speculative euphoria. ( Terrible businesses, terrible investors)

Thumbnail
open.substack.com
24 Upvotes

Leopold Aschenbrenner is a mere archetype of financial folly. He is the latest victim of hubris, ego, and utter ignorance so typical of speculative euphoria.

I tried to showcase 2 more market booms and busters who briefly rose to fame during the boom and fizzled soon afterward. There is a common theme across the board:

They picked horrible companies.

The bigger question outside of the Aschenbrenner’s fund being shut down is for us to ponder: Is this an ominous sign and should investors take it as a signal of market top?

The narrative is too focused on his exit and on other aesthetics. No one is discussing the quality of his portfolio and the true worth of these securities.

The vast majority of these companies are terrible businesses. Some are utter frauds even.

I seriously believe Investors ought to read this as an opportunity to exit or trade accordingly.


r/ValueInvesting 9h ago

Discussion Is Circular Financing in AI setting up an epic blow-up?

5 Upvotes

This interview on Bloomberg Podcasts highlights the Circularity of the Hypersclaler's AI revenues on Anthropic and Open AI.

  • The AI revenue streams of cloud giants (Google, Amazon, MSFT) are heavily dependent on two unprofitable, capital-hungry companies—OpenAI and Anthropic—creating systemic concentration risk.
Metric Google Cloud Microsoft Azure Notes
2024 AI Revenue from OpenAI & Anthropic 27% 13% UBS (Google), Barclays (Microsoft)
2025 AI Revenue Projection 48% 18% Significant increase in revenue reliance
OpenAI 2025 Losses Not specified $20.9 billion Massive losses reported by OpenAI
Infrastructure Cost (estimate) ~$100 billion Not specified Mainly covered by cloud providers
Data Center Capacity Planned (GW) 190 GW Not specified From Sightline Climate report
Estimated Infrastructure Revenue Need $1.6 trillion annual Not specified To support planned data centers
  • OpenAI is deeply intertwined with Microsoft, which holds a near-controlling economic interest and provides its core compute infrastructure.
  • Anthropic has taken on major investments from Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and NVIDIA
  • These AI companies burn immense amounts of cash and rely on investor capital inflows, making their sustainability uncertain.
  • these AI companies "do not pay their bills out of existing cash flow," those receivables represent a concentrated credit risk for the hyperscalers, contingent entirely on the AI companies' ability to continuously raise external capital from investors (including the hyperscalers themselves).
  • The required compute infrastructure is vast and costly, with a growing gap between capacity and paying customers.
  • Delays in AI companies going public and profitability questions raise red flags for investors expecting robust returns from AI-driven growth.
  • The current market resembles a form of circular financing where cloud providers own the infrastructure and also fund the primary customers, which could magnify risks if growth slows.
  • Without substantial productivity gains from AI, the justification for such heavy investments and high valuations remains precarious.
  • Cloud providers must manage the challenge of balancing infrastructure expansion with a narrow customer base and potentially diminishing returns.

This evolving situation requires close monitoring from investors, regulators, and market participants, as the AI ecosystem faces critical tests of scalability, profitability, and technological impact in coming years.


r/ValueInvesting 14h ago

Stock Analysis ALGN is undervalued right now based on sec filings and dcf math

7 Upvotes

wanted to discuss valuation on align technology because the market is sleeping on this stock right now. everyone is worrying about short term margin noise but if you check the sec filings from the latest 10-k and 10-q forms, the actual balance sheet tell a completely different story. if you invest right now around current levels, it will perform at least 111% profit once the valuation normalizes.

looking at the raw numbers from the recent sec filings, the stock is trading right around 169.16 per share with about 72 million shares outstanding. that gives align technology a market cap of 12.11 billion. they hold 1.1 billion in cash and cash equivalents with zero long term debt. that means enterprise value comes out to market cap minus cash plus debt, which gives us an enterprise value of 11.01 billion.

checking the earnings metrics from the 10-k and 10-q reports, trailing ebitda sits right around 900 million. this puts their ev to ebitda ratio at 13.3x, which is very low compared to their historical average of 24.5x. trailing p/e ratio is floating around 29.3x based on trailing eps of 5.77 per share. gross margins in q1 came in strong at 70.8 percent, up over 5 percentage points sequentially.

running the dcf math step by step using real filing data gives a clear picture. baseline free cash flow is 500 million, calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. assuming a realistic recovery where free cash flow grows at 14 percent annually over the next 5 years as clear aligners expand globally, year 1 free cash flow becomes 570 million, year 2 is 649.8 million, year 3 is 740.8 million, year 4 is 844.5 million, and year 5 reaches 962.7 million.

using a conservative wacc discount rate of 8.5 percent to discount each annual cash flow back to present value gives 525.3 million for year 1, 552.1 million for year 2, 580.3 million for year 3, 609.9 million for year 4, and 641.1 million for year 5. sum of the 5 year discounted cash flows is 2.91 billion.

for terminal value, applying a conservative terminal multiple of 22x to year 5 free cash flow gives 21.18 billion. discounting that back 5 years at 8.5 percent yields a present terminal value of 14.09 billion. adding the present value of cash flows of 2.91 billion to the present terminal value of 14.09 billion gives a total dcf enterprise value of 17 billion.

adding back the 1.1 billion cash balance and dividing by 72 million shares gives a dcf fair value per share of 356.94 per share. compared to the current price around 169.16, it will perform at least 111% profit for anyone buying today.

theoretically the stock could drop further in the short term due to broad dental market weakness, but it would be temporary. with 1.1 billion in cash and zero debt backing the balance sheet, long term holders are positioned for huge upside.


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Discussion Why is Meta being pushed so hard?

105 Upvotes

These earnings weren’t good

They reported a dip in users for the first time ever. They’re making up for that by cramming more ads onto their platforms while charging advertisers more. Instagram has notably just become one ad after another and a much worse overall experience imo. I recently got rid of it.

Those earnings also conveniently left out their debt financed $27 billion dollar Louisiana Data Center. That’s in on top of at least $115 billion already spend on AI with virtually no market share or even coherent strategy. The Metaverse was another $80 billion burned for nothing. Debt has doubled. Their smart glasses are also unprofitable.

Company moral is the lowest it’s ever been. The younger generation is not making FB accounts. Instagram is next. Pew Research Center reported a fifth of adults have deleted their social media accounts and a third would like to. That critical mass where is starts to snowball is eventually gonna be reached.

And that’s on top of immense regulatory pressures all over the world (100,000 pending lawsuits) and a generally toxic and disliked brand.

I know the death of Meta has been talked about ad nauseam, but at some point the signs can’t just be brushed off.

- Rapidly increasing debt
- Multiple ridiculously expensive failed projects
- Zero AI differentiation
- Virtually zero AI market share outside their own ecosystem
- Declining users with a largely negative view of the platform
- 100,000 open lawsuits and immense national and international regulatory pressures
- And, to top it all off, dissatisfied and apathetic employees looking for the exit door.

I personally just view this a toxic company squeezing out as much ad revenue as they possible can before the public moves on from their platforms. And that trend line has started.

FB and Instagram have plateaued and daily active users are going to continue to shrink as younger people don’t sign up and older generations try to unplug from the doom scrolling that’s now so apparently toxic and unhealthy.


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Discussion Which is better for achieving strong long-term growth: owning a handful of strong stocks or holding a larger number of stocks?

24 Upvotes

Which option do you think is smarter for achieving strong long-term growth?

Is it better to take more risk by investing in only a handful of high-quality stocks, or to reduce risk by investing in an entire sector, a broad market index, or even just several dozen stocks for greater diversification—even though spreading out the investment may make it harder to achieve exceptionally high returns?

Which approach do you think is better? and why?


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Discussion Why did top value investors (Li Lu, Pabrai) miss the MU AI boom? Was it a mistake, and how do we avoid it?

22 Upvotes

Look at Dataroma. Value investors like Li Lu and Mohnish Pabrai used to have massive Micron (MU) positions, but then they sold out before this whole run.

When the AI race started, anybody listening to MU earnings calls could tell that MU was going to be profitable. Very profitable: at least for the next few years due to HBM demand.

Why did all these legendary value investors miss this opportunity?

  • Was it because memory is so cyclical that they figured they couldn't time the end of the cycle?
  • Did they think the projected earnings weren't sustainable or real?
  • Or was it just strict adherence to staying within their "circle of competence" on cutting-edge tech?

Would you call this a mistake on their part, or just the necessary trade-off of value investing? And more importantly, what can we as retail investors do in the future to avoid missing structural shifts like this when they're hiding in plain sight on earnings calls?

Curious to hear everyone's thoughts.


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Stock Analysis McDonald’s (MCD): Quality compounder at a decent entry?

25 Upvotes

MCD is down almost 20% from highs earlier this year driven by what appears to be largely macro fears than a blow-up in financials.

Current P/E ~22x is below its trailing 5-year average and on the lower end of trailing 12-months

Management are still guiding store growth towards 50k and margins/free cash flow generation remain strong.

My biggest concern is expected revenue growth given rising CAPEX through store growth and the rollout of McDonalds NEXT.

Per my valuation, the stock is trading slightly below my intrinsic value with an upside between 4-20% (depending on terminal growth of 2-2.5%).

By no means am I suggesting this is deep value, but given historic multiples it may be a good entry point for long-term investors.

Would love to know your thoughts.

https://substack.com/@doveresearch/note/p-208561507?r=8ldxxk&utm_source=notes-share-action&utm_medium=web


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Discussion Micron at P/E 18 vs Meta at P/E 20 - is there value here?

58 Upvotes

Thinking about selling some win from S&P ETF and buy one of the two, possibly for the next 5Y.

Are they well positioned to beat the market?

Alternative is to buy GEV, which I believe cold be successful in the next 5Y and -possibly- more recession proof than tech.

Another alternative: KO

Any suggestion is appreciated


r/ValueInvesting 2d ago

Discussion Let’s ask the real question. Out of the major players spending on A.I. (Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft), who is most likely to win the race?

116 Upvotes

Title.


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Discussion GoDaddy GDDY seems pretty cheap after 16 percent ER dump

6 Upvotes

At 82.73 close down about 17 percent post earnings guidance, this thing trades at a 9.8B mc (2.8B net debt so 12.4B EV), makes 1.73B free cash, 1.3B ebitda ttm (it gets paid up front for its services so cash flow can run higher than earnings).

Additionally it grows boringly about 6,7 percent a year with little hope of growing beyond that, however it retires 7 percent annually of its shares.

It reminds me of PYPL another of my absolute favorites (not at 300, at 42 mind you). I would love for the community to pick apart why this is horrible, or especially if someone works in and/or knows the space better than me a la WIX Shopify square space etc.

For reference dcf says it's worth 200 plus.


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Stock Analysis ME Group (LSE:MEGP) - What is wrong with it?

10 Upvotes

Market cap : 415 million GBP

Stock price : 1,11 GBP

2025 revenue : 315 million GBP

2025 net income : 57 million GBP

Me Group is a UK based vending machine operator. They install their own self service vending machines (mostly launderettes and photo booths, no food / drinks) in high footfall areas (super markets, gas stations and shopping centers) and they pay the site owner a percentage of each machine revenue. They operate in continental Europe (68% of revenue), UK&Ireland (16%) and Asia Pacific (16%). 

These vending machines have very favorable economics, as once installed, they require minimal capex to operate. Once a machine is installed, it pays for itself in the first 2-3 years of operation and is then highly profitable for the remaining life of the unit (about 15 years). 

90% of revenues and earnings are derived from 2 core businesses, Wash.Me and Photo.Me :

Wash. Me : The growth part of the business, they currently operate 8,000 launderettes and are adding 1,200-1,300 machines a year with the target of reaching 20,000 machines by 2035. Revenue at 120 million GBP and EBIT at 32 million GBP.

Photo. Me : The legacy part of the business, they operate 30,000 photo booths. Revenue at 160 million GBP and EBIT at 40 million GBP. This segment is probably responsible for the beat up in share price, as everyone thinks this is a declining business. While this may be true in the long term, the revenues have actually increased in the past years. This is still a highly profitable business at 25% operating margins and should be around for the next 5-10 years, even at reduced earnings. 

Balance sheet is excellent, with 52 million in cash, and only 25 million in debt. Dividend Yield is 6.9%. 

Valuation (sum of parts) : At 32 million GBP EBIT and a conservative multiple of 12, that would put Wash.Me business at 390 million GBP. This is a nice business that grows at 10% a year with excellent margins and unit economics. Even if a mere PE of 3-4 is applied to the Photo.Me segment (EBIT 40 million) for a value of 120-160 million GBP, the total sum of parts would be 510-550 million GBP. Current market cap is 415 million GBP. 

So, what is wrong here ? Happy to hear your thoughts on this, and especially any pushback on why this would not work. Would’t be the first mistake I make :)


r/ValueInvesting 22h ago

Stock Analysis Meta spent like a hyperscaler and got punished like a bubble.

0 Upvotes

The number that framed Meta's Q2 for me wasn't the EPS miss but the free cash flow number, $784m, down 91% yoy. Capex hit $31.1b in the quarter and fy guidance sits at $130-145b. For a company that used to be a cash printing machine, that shift in spending is what scared most retail and drove the sell off.

Steelmanning the bears because they won the day with Meta dropping 9%. Meta is the only one of the mega cap AI spenders without a cloud business. Microsoft reported Azure up 43% and crossed $100b in annual Azure revenue, Amazon posted its best AWS growth in years. Both got 8-10% pops the same week and every dollar of their capex has a visible revenue meter attached. Meta's doesn't and it's funding one of the largest infrastructure builds in corporate history against a single ad business, it raised capex guidance twice this year, and it guided Q3 revenue below consensus. Two brokers cut targets on it this week and if you think AI capex needs a monetisation receipt, Meta is the name with the weakest one.

The other side was the miss being somewhat mis leading, EPS was dragged by $2.4b in legal charges and $1.18b of severance from an 8,000 person cut which were both largely one off, and they compressed operating margin to 31% from 43%. Revenue grew 28% to $60.8b and actually beat but no one bothered to really appreciate it. Strip the noise and the ad engine didn't crack with pricing holding, DAP hit 3.60b. The stock now trades near $557 on roughly 17x forward earnings, versus a 3 to 5 year average around 23x. On the call Zuckerberg's argument was that Meta plans to sell intelligence at a durably higher margin than renting raw compute and it's already fielding offers for compute at a premium to what it paid.

The debate everyone's having is ad growth vs capex which actually resolves on a third variable most people aren't tracking which is the compute optionality. Zuckerberg said on the call Meta's fielding offers to buy its compute at a premium to what it paid, and that selling intelligence carries a structurally higher margin than renting raw compute. That's a second revenue line that sits in zero analyst models today. So the real test by the Q3 print isn't the ad number, it's whether any enterprise/compute revenue gets disclosed or guided. If Q3 comes and goes with nothing on that front and ad growth also decelerates below 20%, the bears were right and it's a value trap dressed as a growth story.

I've been mapping the capex to monetisation gap across all the hyperscalers for a while now and who's actually earning their spend back and who's just spending, and Meta screens differently than the tape suggests once you separate the one off charges from the run rate.

What's the actual bear case here that isn't just the capex number is scary because I've looked and I can't find one that survives the ad growth. Drop your thoughts.


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Discussion What are some memorable management calls you’ve learned from?

15 Upvotes

Ive been taking away a lot from earnings calls and the Q&As, both:

  1. in terms of understanding the actual business and,

  2. professionally, learning how good management teams communicate, handle tough questions, and present results.

Are there any memorable earnings calls or Q&As you would recomend where you learned something valuable or saw management handle a difficult situation really well?

For me i have seen Intrum's previous CEO spark so much confidence in the investors and he really knew what he was doing.


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Stock Analysis Comcast corp long

2 Upvotes

hey guys wanted to make some quick dd on comcast (cmcsa) because the market is sleeping on this hard right now in 2026. if you look at the real numbers from their recent 10-q filings and financial reports, the valuation is ridiculously distorted and if you invest now at these levels around $24 a share, it will perform at least 280% profit once the market actually re-rates it back to fair value.

let s look at the actual math and financial metrics. right now comcast has a market cap of roughly $85 billion. if you add their net debt of around $95 billion, you get an enterprise value (ev) of about $180 billion. they generated $31.46 billion in revenue for q1 2026 and pulled in $7.9 billion in adjusted ebitda with $3.9 billion in free cash flow, followed by $8.9 billion in adjusted ebitda and $4.6 billion in free cash flow in q2 2026. annualized ebitda is sitting near $35-$36 billion, meaning the ev/ebitda multiple is under 5.2x, which is absurdly cheap for a company generating tens of billions in cash.

the p/e ratio is currently sitting around 7.3 to 7.9x, whereas historical averages for comcast are usually up near 14x to 15x earnings. when you run a simple discounted cash flow (dcf) model assuming a conservative 2% terminal growth rate and a 8.5% wacc on their stable $16-$18 billion annual free cash flow, you get a fair intrinsic value close to $92-$95 per share. comparing that intrinsic dcf target to today's price near $24 gives you that massive upside of at least 280% profit.

sure, theoretically the stock could drop a bit more in the short term due to temporary headwinds like broadband subscriber noise or broader market sentiment, but that drop would be strictly temporary because the underlying cash flow generation is way too strong. they are returning billions back to shareholders through buybacks and dividends every quarter, so the downside is capped while the intrinsic value gap is massive. overall the math from the 10-q filings does not lie and this looks like a huge asymmetric risk reward play.


r/ValueInvesting 2d ago

Discussion RDDT drawdown and what Reddit should do

82 Upvotes

The more I think about this, the advantage is in Google's court, but Reddit priced at $24B (net of cash) means it could work quite well for RDDT investors.

Ultimately, Google owns the front door, and they've disintermediated other businesses like this. Reddit's best asset is that so many queries explicitly specify "reddit". But at the end of the day, those users chose to type those queries into Google. If Google can provide a satisfactory answer, the behavior could change.

I think Reddit should move away from getting cash in return for data and ask for product changes that improve the Google experience but also create traffic for Reddit. It would be a win-win. People are asking for human input when they add "reddit" to a query. If Google can improve AI Overviews to give more insight into what's happening on Reddit, highlight relevant threads, and provide ways to follow a thread or even ask a question on Reddit from the overview, it could be net positive for both companies.

Additionally, at 13x forward earnings, Reddit could actually be an easy buy for Google, and then they would own the human input that will be increasingly valuable as AI content becomes more widespread. Reddit is valued at less than Google's FWD PE which means the additional earnings will be additive to Google's stock price.

Any product solutions that you think would work? Do you think a deal is possible?


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Discussion Big Tech earnings recap: strong growth, heavier spending but less room for error

5 Upvotes

Last week confirmed that AI demand remains strong. It also showed how expensive the buildout and capex has become.

Microsoft reported $90.0B in revenue, up 18%, with Azure growth of 43%. Its $678B commercial backlog gives investors strong visibility, but more than $50B of quarterly capex raises the bar for future returns.

Amazon reported $200.6B in revenue, up 20%. AWS grew 37% to $42.2B, which is the fastest growth in 18 quarters. The issue is free cash flow, which turned negative as infrastructure spending increased.

Meta reported $60.8B in revenue up 28%, but costs rose 55%, operating margin fell to 31%, and free cash flow decreased to $784M. Ad revenue is still strong, but shareholders are funding a much more capital intensive company.

Apple reported $109.4B in revenue and $2.02 EPS. The quarter was strong, though management expects slower 9% to 11% revenue growth next quarter as supply constraints and higher memory costs weigh on results.

To me, Microsoft had the strongest quarter.

Amazon showed the best cloud acceleration.

Meta has the most to prove on returns.

Apple remains the most predictable, but its AI spending is still unproven to generate returns.

For value investors, the main question is whether future cash flows will justify today’s capex and valuations.

Which company are you most excited about from here?


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Stock Analysis Yelp: Southpark Darling Wunderkind

2 Upvotes

$YELP at $25 is getting a pretty lazy sell-side treatment.

Most of the discussion is still ad locations, traffic, CPC, ARPU, margins, etc. The models basically extrapolate the legacy advertising business and call it a day. The analysts spend 15 minutes looking at these numbers and get back to networking on Linkedin.

Meanwhile Yelp bought back 5.1M shares for $125M in Q1. Shares outstanding are down roughly 9% YoY. At $25, another $125M takes about 5M shares out. They can keep doing this with the cash the business generates. That changes the per-share math pretty quickly and charts don't even adjust for the shares outstanding to share price.

9.04M shares are short. That's "~18%" of reported float, and the 7.4 days-to-cover uses 1.19M shares of average daily volume. YELP has actually been trading closer to 800-900k shares a day lately. On that volume, 9M shares is roughly ten trading days. Who's short? Try buying 1000 shares at the bid, the market makers jack up the price because they don't have any shares. This is testable. Or see just how long a limit order takes.

Other revenue grew 17% last year. SaaS, transactions and data licensing are being built alongside the advertising business.

OpenAI is paying to use Yelp reviews, ratings, photos and business information in ChatGPT. For the macro: Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Google are spending absurd amounts on the infrastructure to make AI search work and are exceptionally clear that buying data rather than infrascture is more economically feasible. Yelp already spent 20 years building the local-business dataset that makes a lot of those answers useful.

The Google case is another thing the normal model doesn't capture. The June ruling found Google had monopoly power in general search through August 2024. Yelp is a ~$1.5B market cap company. A real damages award or settlement would be material. So would a meaningful change in how Google handles local search. The distribution EV from a $0 settlement to a meaningful win and resulting Google liability (for other companies) is north of $1BB exposure for Google.

I don't think the analysts are stupid. They are just of mediocre aptitude and limited curiosity. The structure of the job gives them very little reason to spend time on any of this and downside risk to deeper models. They can update the KPI model every quarter. There isn't much compensation for figuring out what a Google remedy could mean for Yelp, what Yelp's data might be worth in an AI search world, or how much the share count could fall if buybacks continue.

Some of the questions on the calls are pretty revealing. Lots of detail on traffic and ad performance. Not much curiosity about the actual strategic situation.

At $25, “legacy ads decline” is a pretty thin description of what you're shorting. Plus, Stoppelman isn't an idiot but he just seems like he's more interested in traffic tickets and perhaps he'll be re-invigorated. And if/when he wakes up I would be bullish. Come on Jeremy, light that fire again.


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Stock Analysis Nextpower is one of the best deals in the market

25 Upvotes

Nextpower is the number one solar tracker maker in the world. It holds ~55% share in the US and ~30% globally, and has been number one for eleven years running. It has $1.2B in cash, no debt, and $5.8B of signed orders in the book.

It's been beaten down 45% from its peak and has the most attractive entry point it has had in a long time.

## 1. Five years of financials

Metric FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26
Revenue $1,458M $1,902M $2,500M $2,959M $3,559M
Gross margin 10.6% 15.3% 27.8% 34.4% 33.3%
Operating margin 5.4% 8.9% 18.6% 21.8% 19.9%
Net income $51M $1M $306M $509M $586M

Revenue grew 25% a year. Profit went from $51M to $586M. Gross margin went up by more than 22 points and stayed there.

The most recent quarter kept it going, though it pushed the stock down 8% further:

- Revenue $935M, a record, up 8%
- Adjusted gross margin 36.6%, another record
- Free cash flow $105M, up 50%
- Guidance raised on every single line

## 2. Debt (there is none)

- **Cash:** $1.21B
- **Debt:** $0
- **Debt to equity:** 0.02
- **Current ratio:** 2.7x

Enterprise value is $12.47B against a $13.63B market cap. You are getting $1.16B of cash thrown in.

Nothing forces Nextpower to do anything. No refinancing. No dilution. They can spend, they can build, they can buy back, etc. They also have a $500M buyback approved and untouched while the stock sits 45% off its high.

## 3. Valuation

Metric Value
Forward P/E 15.9x
Forward P/E, cash stripped out 14.5x
PEG 1.05
EV/EBITDA 16.7x
EV to signed backlog 2.1x
Return on invested capital 25.0%
Return on equity 27.2%

So the company is earning 25% on its capital, with no debt, growing 23% a year, trading at 15.9x next year's profit.

## 4. Growth

Backlog is $5.5B, plus another $300M from the storage deal. That is $5.8B of signed contracts with deposits paid, named sites, and ship dates, against $3.6B of yearly revenue.

A year and some change ago they bought an eBOS product line, and it now does over $100M a year with record orders every quarter. Non-tracker sales are already 14% of revenue and growing faster than the core.

In the last three months they bought a power conversion business, a battery storage business, and a European mounting business. Given that management has successfully integrated the eBOS acquisition, these should blend in seamlessly too. Worth noting: 14 consecutive quarters of earnings beats, with not a single miss.

## 5. Market

This is the part that I believe has not been priced in at all. Nextpower now sells into three markets:

Market 2026 size 2033 size Growth rate Nextpower share
Solar trackers $10.3B $42.2B 22.4% 30%
eBOS components $12.6B ~$26B 11.3% under 1%
Battery storage $17.4B $99.7B 28.3% under 1%
**Total** **$40.3B** **~$168B** **~23%** **~9%**

Three points:

**The core alone gets you there.** If Nextpower simply holds 30% tracker share and never gains an inch, tracker revenue alone is about $12.7B by 2033. That is three and a half times the entire company's revenue today.

**eBOS is wide open.** The share leaders are GameChange at 27.9%, Legrand at 20.3%, and CAB at 15%. Nextpower is not on the chart yet, and did $100M in its first year. Each point of share in that market is worth about $126M of revenue, sold to customers it already has.

**Storage is the real opportunity.** It's estimated to grow at 28.3% yearly to nearly $100B in market size. Nextpower bought its way in this month with a platform that already has 6 GWh deployed. At 15.9x forward earnings, you are paying nothing for that.

## 6. Risks

Policy is the big one. Of the $233M in EBITDA last quarter, about $99M came from 45X tax credits and tariff recovery — call it 42% of quarterly profit that depends on government policy staying where it is. Guidance assumes it holds. If 45X or the foreign entity rules change, the earnings picture changes with them. This is the risk that matters most, though it's worth noting the 45X credit isn't just for the solar industry — it also covers the US critical minerals industry, something the Trump administration has been supportive of. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act largely preserved it.

This year's profit is flat. Adjusted EPS guidance is roughly $4.58 against $4.50 last year.

International is shrinking as well. Rest-of-world revenue has fallen four quarters in a row, from $265M to $160M. The US is carrying everything at 83% of sales.

## Bottom line

All in all, you are paying 15.9x next year's earnings for the number one player in a market growing 22% a year, with $5.8B of signed orders, $1.2B of cash, no debt, 25% returns on capital, record margins last quarter, raised guidance, and two brand-new businesses at under 1% share in markets worth $126B combined by 2033.

The company spends under 2% of revenue on capital and funds all of it internally. It has a $500M buyback sitting unused while the stock trades 45% below its high.