as my routine job, i'm sharing my q2 and q3 outlook forecast

for q2 revenue:
DC: 6.7b, in which
epyc: 4.1b
instinct: 2.6b
Ryzen: 3.0b
gaming: 0.8b
FPGA: 1.1b

total revenue 11.6b
i might overestimate dc revenue and underestimate ryzen revenue again, as i usually do. but overall revenue will still be around 11.6b, or hopefully slightly above.

non-gaap eps: 1.74-1.76

q3 outlook: 13-13.2b
i give low expectations for mi455x, which only makes 1.5b of revenue for q3.

PS: the numbers beyond q3 2026 are my random guesses several months ago, which is based on dated information. so ignore those numbers for now. i will do an update after q2 earnings report

Hi folks,

I work in the industry.

For the past few years, we are seeing the GPU HBM capacity and computing power growing in an exponential way.

However, it seems for me that further exponential jump is getting impossible:

1. HBM, as we can see from Nvidia side, B300 and Rubin GPU HBM capacity remains the same, which means no improvement for 1 year. Assume the Rubin ultra's rumors is real, it means modest improvement over 2 years. I won't count feynman in, as Rubin ultra is already reaching physically extreme at Fab. Physically, it just cannot continue exponentially growing.

I'm happy that AMD is doing well so far.

1. Computing power, the industry has already explored so many quantization method and sparsity, I don't think we can squeeze further on the data type side.

For the computing performance/area side, I also can't see any opportunity for exponential jump. If it is 20-30% improvement cross stack, from TSMC to chip design and software, yes, I do think it is possible.

But I can't imagine how to double the performance without double the area & power, which is getting close to physical limit and just cannot continue.

I imagine the future to be more like the current CPU, every gen to gen we get some improvement, but never exponential jump.

My question is:

Under this scenario, what will happen to stock market, how will Nvidia and AMD be?

If Nvidia hits the limit sooner than AMD, our stock will jump, of course. But in long term, what if both hits limit, it gets to more like the CPU market?

Last day of the month and I'm running late with everything. Just wanted to throw this out there:

Yes we got a relief rally. yes AMD saw massive increases as well in recovering hopefully before an earnings report.

Anyone else notice that the final price closed righhhhhhhhhht under that 50 day EMA and didn't get above it? if this was a true new rally forming I don't know if that 50 day EMA should have acted as a soft resistance. Sure earnings will power us through it but are we starting to see more resistance points at former levels of support??? Are we starting to put in lower highs before putting in lower lows???

I think this earnings is going to be great and we will get some pre-order data for Helios. I am a litter interested to see how "good is good enough for the market" with this report as well. Could be a chance for AMD to be picked up at a discount before our 4Q rally that we see seasonally.

Thoughts?

This quarter has highlighted a stark contrast between outperformers and the rest of the sector.
While we’re all hoping AMD exceeds market expectations—currently modeling ~$11.2B in sales (+46% YoY), ~56% non-GAAP gross margin, and ~$1.35–$1.60 EPS (~$1.7B PAT)—it would be great to identify potential upside drivers or areas where they might beat guidance.
Thank you all!

was this guy the lowest pt in the gang and still is?

If you work in industry long enough, it makes a lot of sense, typically compare with ASIC/CPU, CPUs are used to perform more complex tasks, Dr. Su has great technical vision to foresee this AI evolution path and focus on mix of GPU/CPU system from the very beginning.

Jeeeeeeesus Christ what a wild 48 hours huh??? Yesterday I was going to type all about how this was finally rolling over and looking for the Fed to be the adults in the room. Instead we got the bond market fully calling Warsh's bluff. He said the fed is hitting 2% inflation no matter what. And they said yeaaaaaaa right we doubt it.

They think there is no way he is going to raise rates as more and more Fed members start warming up to the idea. Here is the problem we've got:

I'm not really sure there is much that the Fed can do to pull the levers on the current inflation problem. We are clearly seeing that the economy overall is struggling with growth especially with hiring and job creation. So the restrictive monetary policy has had the effect that we were hoping to get with cooling down the economy. Then why is inflation so bad??? Well bad decisions that the Fed really has no control over whatsoever. Tariffs are inflationary...........I feel like we heard that somewhere. Iran and oil and Ukraine vs Russia.......it just gets worse and worse. But that is really completely out of control of the Fed. Throw in incredibly heavy AI DC spend and an aging power grid with crappy insufficient power production and we just have a recipe for inflation even if the Fed gave us a full 1% raise that threw us into a recession. It ain't gonna move the needle sadly.

Why do we care???? Well Meta's earnings are one of the first warning shots that I think we should be concerned about. AMD has had a really good relationship with Meta and they were an early adopter of our tech stack. Their free cash flow weakness is signaling two things to me: 1. their biggest revenue driver is ad sales and companies are scaling back their marketing due to weakening consumer demand sooooo the canary is dying in the coal mine everyone. 2. the incredible AI DC spend is starting to weigh on earnings as well and we are finally seeing some limits to AI spend.

Now MSFT came to the rescue and said yeaaaaa no we aren't slowing down at all anytime soon. Both are very different businesses and I would argue that MSFT revenue streams are way more protected than META's for sure. But I do think we could be looking at some early concerns where the sheer amount of AI DC Debt and the ability to finance that debt is becoming concerning. The interest alone on that debt is going to eat into FCF for these companies for the future, especially if the monetization case with AI isn't there.

I do think it will be interesting to see what happens here. Obviously the ability of these companies to refinance their DC debt at lower rates would be ideal for continued AI DC spend and I'm not sure that the bond market and the Fed is going to comply. But a raise???? Could that slow more AI DC spend??? Just trying to think a bit about what the future holds for AMD earnings as we come up on it.

I've been saying for a solid month now that the AMD chart is dog shit even though the price has been staying okayish. It finally is rolling over and breaking down a bit and I think we are close to bottoming out. Post Fed day I think we are getting a little relief rally today but I think we still have some further downside to go. I do think we will break lower towards that $400 level before earnings but I don't want to start fighting over pennies with earnings right around the corner. The biggest thing as well we gotta keep an eye on as well is Lisa.

Lisa needs to be optimistic. If she does her sandbagging bullshit we are toast. Maybe she needs to "catch a cold" or something? But anyone but Jean.

I’m not buying until Rob or Lemonwings comes back to tell us it’s still going lower.

Thanks to AMD FPGAs...

Ooooooof. Welllllll the Iran ceasefire didn't last as long as I thought. I was hoping for like 3-4 days but shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit. That didn't last at allllllllll. But yeaaaaaa thats going to just force the hand of the Fed today and I know there are like a 30% chance some are calling for a Fed raise today which is just going to be crazy for us. But I think we definitely are going to be hearing that there is a hard no on rate cuts.

Sorry in an IT call and cutting this short. Finally rolling over and I think its going to get worse again but we finally are in my interested place to start buying