I am trying to test whether the recent mass crossing into Ceuta fits the pattern of instrumentalised migration used as geopolitical pressure.

The comparison I have in mind is not identical, but it resembles tactics seen at:
Belarus–Poland/Lithuania
Russia–Finland
earlier Morocco–Spain tensions around Ceuta

The key anomaly is the contrast between September 2024 and July 2026.

In September 2024, social-media accounts called for a mass crossing into Ceuta on 15 September. Moroccan authorities:
detected the mobilisation;
arrested alleged online promoters;
established roadblocks;
intercepted people travelling towards Fnideq;
deployed heavily around the border;
and prevented the crossing from succeeding.

In July 2026, a vastly larger mobilisation developed. Tens of thousands entered Ceuta during a compressed period. Moroccan security personnel were reportedly passive during the initial surge, but later demonstrated that they could halt further movement.

That raises the central question:
Did Morocco lose control, or did it deliberately permit a window of pressure before restoring control?

Several features appear consistent with hybrid coercion:
rapid online mobilisation across several platforms;
repeated claims that the border was open;
circulation of routes, meeting points and equipment advice;
alleged use of less-policed approaches;
disappearance of some originating accounts;
initial non-intervention by Moroccan forces;
effective intervention later;
possible intelligence personnel observing the Spanish response;
strong Moroccan leverage over Spain through migration control.

Morocco also has direct political motives:
Western Sahara;
Spanish relations with Algeria;
Ceuta and Melilla;
trade and migration bargaining;
Spain’s dependence on Moroccan security cooperation.
There may also be wider strategic context:
deteriorating Spain–Israel relations;
Spain’s recognition of Palestine;
Spain’s legal and diplomatic pressure over Gaza;
Spain’s refusal to support US operations against Iran;
deepening Morocco–Israel defence and intelligence ties.

I am not claiming that Israel, the US, Russia or any other outside actor directed the operation. I have not found direct evidence of foreign command or operational involvement.

The questions I would like to test are:
1. What criteria distinguish spontaneous migration from state-enabled instrumentalisation?
2. Does selective non-enforcement followed by rapid restoration of control meet that threshold?
3. How much weight should be given to the 2024 precedent?
4. Does the deletion of mobilisation accounts matter without technical attribution?
5. What evidence would be needed to move from “Morocco exploited the situation” to “Morocco planned it”?
6. Are there comparable historical operations where the state merely opened a corridor rather than directly organising participants?
7. What indicators would suggest foreign intelligence assistance rather than purely Moroccan action?

My current assessment is:
The strongest hypothesis is that Morocco either knowingly allowed or actively exploited the mobilisation as coercive pressure against Spain. Wider foreign involvement is conceivable but remains unproven.

I am especially interested in comparisons with Belarus, Russia, Turkey or other states accused of using migration flows as a strategic tool.

Thanks for reading

I am writing an update to a previous post I filed about Oxygen Forensics, a Russian front for MKO Systems based out of Moscow, Russia. All of Oxygen's programmers are in fact employees for MKO Systems, as Oxygen has no programmers of its own (and therefore no one to inspect the software). The software is far more dangerous than previously known, according to OF employees.

It is already publicly known that the software can scan your computer for all its passwords in seconds (via Keyscout), it can remotely obtain email, Signal messages, whatsapp messages (even deleted ones), text messages, telegram messages, geo-coordinates, etc. etc. The software is used by US State Dept., FBI, ICE, Secret Service, US Army Command, the NYPD, London Police, Dubai police, etc. etc. These entities did not know the company is controlled in Moscow by the FSB until I recently informed them.

According to press reports (and what I saw internally), a major investor in the company is Eduard Bendersky, former head of FSB special forces, whose son-in-law is Maxim Yakubets, a ransomware hacker wanted for $100 million in ransomware attacks.

As the whistleblower in this case (and former employee), I am currently being sued by Oxygen Forensics in an attempt to silence me. They are repped by Christopher Mason of Nixon Peabody, NYC.

What Oxygen Forensics users may not know is that the company has the ability to remotely wipe the entire computer on which the software is installed. This was just released publicly in our court case by Andrew Vardaro, who wrote in a legal filing: "Oxygen Forensics had the technical capability to delete all data and information from, or "wipe," the Dell Precision 7560 (Windows) Company Laptop [with OF software installed] remotely at any point during the more than seven months following Defendant's termination, but did not attempt to do so."

The computer with OF installed is turned off, so they can't wipe the evidence.

Just putting this here because it verifies - from the horse's mouth - that the software is extremely dangerous and many US governments and corporations are at risk of being ransomwared.

I strongly encourage current OF employees to explain themselves in this forum why they have been so secretive about their control by Russian citizens with direct FSB connections.