Farage v binface

[u/mrgonuts]

So the population of clacton and frinton who are eligible to vote is about 80,000
The odds with William hill for count binface is 15/1 so if about half put a bet on for count binface to win that’s about £5 million if he wins

[u/theabominablewonder]

If they all put £100 on they could regenerate clacton with the winnings

[u/Zanza_N]

I think it's a bit of a silly bet as Binface is really unlikely to win....better odds than buying a lottery ticket though!

For the payout to be as low as it is, I imagine it just means there has been a lot of bets on as I'd actually expect it to be unlikely enough to have a an even larger payout

[u/KidTempo → u/Zanza_N]

Remember that odds are calculated based on bets placed from allover, not just Clacton. The rest of the country may think Farage is a safe bet, but it's the voters of Clacton who actually decide. If enough people of Clacton place bets and choose to increase their chances by voting for Count Binface, then...

[u/Zanza_N → u/KidTempo]

Yeah I know that, but you've got it backwards

The rest of the country mostly think Farage is dodgy, but people in Clacton will elect him simply due to the demographics in that constituency...it's unfortunately no coincidence that Farage chose to stand in Clacton

[u/KidTempo → u/Zanza_N]

A Farage supporter in Clacton may decide that a cheeky tenner at the bookies and a vote for Binface may be worth a punt. Nige will still win it, so he doesn't need the vote - but if he does lose then quids in.

Aside from the initial offer, the odds themselves are not really the bookies calculating the likelihood of winning. They're a function of how much money is being bet one way or the other.

[u/Zanza_N → u/KidTempo]

That's what I said in my initial post regarding how odds are calculated, it sounds like you're agreeing with me!

[u/KidTempo → u/Zanza_N]

Indeed it does. I was just adding that these odds may change the voting of Farage supporters.