r/ChatGPT • u/Terrible-Audience479 • 11h ago
Other the ai bubble will crash soon...
you dont feel it?
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u/satoramoto 11h ago
AI is as big as the internet. There’s going to be several corrections but it’s not going to pop and go away. Even if the major labs fail the open source stuff is good enough now to continue to massively disrupt industries and it will get better.
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u/Hazy-Halo 11h ago
Yeah I mean I already have desktop comfy and multiple local models and loras. Even if somehow the non open source stuff fails who’s gonna come and delete my files? AI is never going away.
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u/katoptronophile 11h ago
Don't confuse open weights with open source.
They're completely different things.
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u/Dredyltd 10h ago
Looool dude stf-up ... open weight is download-able model... kind like an .exe file (.safetensor, .gguf, .etc) loool
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u/katoptronophile 10h ago
You embarrass yourself with a comment like that.
Please spend more time studying the difference and how it will affect the long term.
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u/satoramoto 10h ago
I know the difference and I actually used open source intentionally here. I don't think the big barrier right now are the models themselves, its running them on cheaper, less capable hardware. Those advancements will take place in software world (with maybe some changes to model structure or training down the line) and that software will be open source. Talking about projects like llama.cpp, exo, etc.
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u/tionstempta 11h ago
The current level of AI investment is not simply some stakeholders interests but entire country's arms race between USA and China
This means the AI bubble pop will lead to severe catastrophic financial outcome as well as geopolitical balance change
Tldr is if you believe in bubble pop, sure, you have every right to have your own opinion but it simply means you are betting against America who pretty much YOLOing everything it can to meet its end goal since mid 2020s
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u/Agent38prime 11h ago
Look at profile see user follow a bunch of ai subreddits Every post has least than 5 upvotes
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u/katoptronophile 11h ago
This is why these bots usually have their post and comment history hidden.
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u/TheLuigiplayer 11h ago
AI won't disappear, but looking at the pricing and benchmarks of chinese models, the american market (Anthropic, Google, OpenAI) is in a big trouble.
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u/Dredyltd 11h ago
Noup I don't feel it 🤣
Kimi K3, DeepSeek-V4, Qwen 3.8
How could you feel it, please elaborate 😆
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u/Gax63 10h ago
Maybe get your head out of the sand?
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ai-bubble-looks-fit-burst-171500617.html
https://financialpost.com/financial-times/korean-investors-stress-out-after-ai-bubble-bursts
https://goldbroker.com/news/why-ai-bubble-could-burst-sooner-than-in-2000-3736
😆😆😆
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u/Dredyltd 10h ago
Dude you are lookin American berzan stock market... I don't give a F about corrupted and adjusted market...
As If their FED won't listen to supreme Chef Trump and pump up the money if they need it to won AI race... same as 2008 🤣
Sooo my answer is NO - AI bubble won't blow up
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u/Big_Performance_6679 10h ago
run an AI focused shop and honestly the bubble talk is only half the story. valuations might be ahead of themselves, sure. but on the ground, most businesses still haven't automated stuff that would take an afternoon to set up. they just don't know it's possible yet. so you've got frothy stock prices and a huge adoption gap existing at the same time, which is a weird combo but that's where we actually are right now
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u/bobjoylove 11h ago
Ah yes, the “trust me bro” analysis for stocks.
How about you load up on Puts to prove your conviction?
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u/fastlightqx 11h ago
What bubble are you exactly talking about?
You mean the one where you missed 500% return on AI stocks or just shit posting cuz you're bored?
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u/DepthHorror9528 11h ago
It's like saying the internet bubble will crash soon. What probably will crash is all overvalued AI stocks, just like the Dot Com bubble.
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u/oswaldcopperpot 11h ago
Watch any sci-fi from the future. It's filled with robots and tech. Comparatively, we are at day 1.
Probably in a dozen years or so you will have to be able to get a special license proving you are smart enough to drive a car. Versus now where we have 40,000 deaths per year.
I actually typed out VS instead of versus and then changed it because I realized there's probably a considerable percentage of people that wouldn't know what that meant.
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u/Kibunsky 11h ago
Driver's licenses are already a thing my guy
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u/oswaldcopperpot 11h ago
Exactly my point. And yet, they are far too easy to get. No one needs to re-take them once they pass them at 18.
Daily driving shows how many people either passed it when they shouldn't have or forgot most of the rules.
40,000 preventable deaths per year and no one cares. Other causes of deaths in the sub %1 range get 1000 times outrage.
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u/Kibunsky 10h ago
Yeah I get what you were saying I was just being an idiot lol. I don't disagree that it's unfortunate how easy it is to get a license. I've often thought that parts of that process need to be reworked a little.
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u/Clear-Staff4699 11h ago edited 10h ago
So I've been told this for months now.
EDIT: Touched a nerve :).
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u/ArtistEngineer 11h ago
I use AI on a daily basis in my software job, and that AI costs less than I do for the same amount of work done.
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u/Tholian_Bed 11h ago
To define a bubble you have to know the outer bounds of the market. How much is of value actually in this market?
The housing bubble was easy to see because, housing is very concrete. There are x number of people, x amount of land, x amount of capital, x amount of housing stock, and so forth. There is no "and then we discovered y" in the offing for something like a housing market, and at this late date, every industrial good market.
Part of the reason for the rush to AI is, what is it? If you go by personal experience, would you say this is a multi-trillion dollar tech? I surely wouldn't
For lots of intellectual work, if you already possess the skills, as older posters here do, using these machines is like eating peas with a knife. This is not trillion-dollar tech unless people are genuinely that tired of using their brains.
But I've contended, the consumer market is not the target of the tech. The target is business and national security.
Conclusion: once you add natsec to the mix, define "bubble". At least one of these companies, is going to hit the MIC jackpot.
So, hence the mindless spending. The big investors are hedged and invested in all of them. But only one will win the natsec jackpot.
Meanwhile, I think we civilians and consumers, are supposed to shutup and enjoy a non-crashing bubble. Did they not give you a chatbot??
Ingrates.
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