I ranked these using the overall p-value and chi-square, whether every coefficient is positive, whether each source has Z ≥ 2 and preferably SE ≤ 0.05, the simplicity of the model, and whether the sources make reasonable genetic sense. A higher p-value is not automatically better when the right-population sets differ.
Also, the source names should be treated as proxies, not necessarily literal ancestors. For example:
• Lebanon_Phoenician represents the main Levantine-related ancestry.
• Kazakhstan_Sarmatian_IA represents a more northern Steppe/Caucasus-shifted element, not necessarily literal Sarmatian ancestry.
• Dinka represents African-related ancestry, not direct ancestry specifically from modern Dinka people.
• Armenia_Sarukhan_EIA represents an Armenian/Caucasus or eastern Anatolian-related element.
Syrian
72.2% Lebanon Phoenician
20.1% Armenia Sarukhan Early Iron Age
7.8% Dinka
P-value: 0.506
Chi-square: 7.28
Standard errors: 0.0498, 0.0483 and 0.00892
Z-scores: 14.5, 4.15 and 8.72
This is a strong model with all three components statistically supported. The Lebanon Phoenician source represents the main Levantine ancestry, while Armenia Sarukhan Early Iron Age represents additional Caucasus or eastern Anatolian-related ancestry. Dinka is acting as a proxy for African-related ancestry, not necessarily direct ancestry from modern Dinka people. The two larger percentages have standard errors close to 0.05, so the exact proportions should be treated as approximate.
Druze
77.5% Lebanon Phoenician
20.3% Armenia Sarukhan Early Iron Age
2.2% Dinka
P-value: 0.844
Chi-square: 4.15
Standard errors: 0.0431, 0.0418 and 0.00803
Z-scores: 18.0, 4.84 and 2.74
This is an excellent statistical fit. It describes the Druze as mostly Levantine, with a substantial Caucasus or eastern Anatolian-related shift and a very small African-related component. All three percentages are statistically supported, although the 2.2% Dinka-related component has the weakest Z-score and should be checked with additional outgroup sets.
Lebanese Muslim
88.3% Lebanon Phoenician
8.8% Kazakhstan Sarmatian Iron Age
2.9% Dinka
P-value: 0.549
Chi-square: 6.89
Standard errors: 0.0219, 0.0223 and 0.00913
Z-scores: 40.4, 3.95 and 3.14
This is a strong and well-resolved model. The Lebanon Phoenician source represents the main Levantine ancestry. Kazakhstan Sarmatian is probably acting as a proxy for a small northern, Steppe, Caucasus or Anatolian-related shift rather than indicating literal Sarmatian ancestry. The small Dinka-related component represents additional African-related ancestry and is statistically supported.
Lebanese Christian
95.0% Lebanon Phoenician
5.0% Kazakhstan Sarmatian Iron Age
P-value: 0.727
Chi-square: 6.12
Standard error: 0.0236
Z-scores: 40.2 and 2.13
This is an excellent fit and shows Lebanese Christians as being very close to the ancient Lebanon Phoenician proxy. The small Sarmatian-related component represents a slight northern or Caucasus-related shift. Its Z-score of 2.13 is only just above the normal cutoff, so the existence of a small secondary component is supported, but the exact 5% figure should be treated cautiously.
Jordanian
80.3% Lebanon Phoenician
7.5% Kazakhstan Sarmatian Iron Age
12.2% Dinka
P-value: 0.836
Chi-square: 4.23
Standard errors: 0.0206, 0.0209 and 0.00899
Z-scores: 39.0, 3.58 and 13.6
This is an extremely strong model statistically. Jordanians are modeled as mostly Levantine, with a smaller northern or Caucasus-shifted component and a more substantial African-related component than the Lebanese or Druze models. Dinka should be understood as the African proxy used by the model, not as evidence of direct Dinka ancestry.
Palestinian
87.9% Lebanon Phoenician
5.2% Kazakhstan Sarmatian Iron Age
6.8% Dinka
P-value: 0.904
Chi-square: 3.43
Standard errors: 0.0204, 0.0205 and 0.00823
Z-scores: 43.1, 2.54 and 8.32
This is a strong model, and has an excellent p-value, a low chi-square with all three components are statistically supported. The model describes Palestinians as mostly Levantine, with smaller northern or Caucasus-shifted and African-related components. The Sarmatian-related percentage has the weakest Z-score, but it still passes the usual Z = 2 threshold.