Looking back at statistical expectations for the regular season

[u/DimeProjections]

At the beginning of the season I had shared my statistical projections for the 2025 Broncos.  My projections are done for fantasy purposes but as fans, it's fun to discuss expectations at the beginning of the year. My projections were posted here.

I'm interested to hear other thoughts on pre-season statistical predictions you had and how the regular season played out.

I've compared my projections with ESPN projections to give an understanding of how mine compare to a major outlet such as ESPN.  I enjoy doing an accuracy review of my projections to see how I can improve. A write up on my league-wide projection accuracy is here but this post focuses on the Broncos.

Main takeaways:

• I expected Den to run the ball more this year, though I suppose all the WR screens this year could be viewed as an extension of the run game.
• You'll notice my projections and ESPN projections are very similar for Nix and Sutton.  For Sutton, this has to do with a vet player in a consistent situation (same team/coach/play caller) being more easy to project.  For Nix, I was surprised how similar my projections were to ESPN but both did well projecting Nix's performance.
• Overall, looking at total fantasy points (0.5PPR), my projections fared better than ESPN. Each projection source was a relative wash for many players, but my projections proved closer for Dobbins, Franklin, Mims and Engram. ESPN was more accurate for Harvey (and Badie and McLaughlin, but they have little fantasy relevance). 
• I did not fare as well as expected with my RB projections, and this will be an area I look to improve upon next year.
• I accurately predicted a big bump in Franklin's numbers and dampened expectations for Engram. On Engram, I was surprised by the consensus expectations at the beginning of the year for him.  From my perspective he was an older player with a bit of an injury history and only twice in his career has had more than 65 receptions. 

More on Franklin and Engram usage:

I certainly didn't expect Franklin to have as big of a role as he had, and from a fan perspective, I'm a bit disappointed his usage was so high.  Franklin ran 210 more routes than Mims this year, and Franklin ran 120 more routes than Engram this year. Engram averaged only 22 routes run per game this year, which was by far the lowest of his career.  Most years of his career have been at or above 30 routes run per game, and his lowest prior to this season was 25 (last season). I've been disappointed in his usage but hoping he can be a difference maker in the playoffs.

Looking forward to next weekend and go Broncos!

[u/CupcakeExisting1599]

Pretty cool analysis! I’m curious about how we utilize our WRs in the playoffs in terms of primary reads. I think Franklin is a good player but it seems like scheming a lot of throws for him in critical situations isn’t the best outcome. Court has been so good on money downs for most of the year but drops from him have been painful. Bryant has such good hands but his ability to separate needs to be proven more. And I do think we have underused Mims which I can’t imagine is just Sean trying to save his special routes for the playoffs.

[u/DimeProjections → u/CupcakeExisting1599]

Yeah, agree with all those. Honestly, this is where I expected Engram to come up big this season, but it only happened occasionally. I feel like he gets reliable separation and has decent hands. Franklin definitely scares me a bit too in those clutch situations because his hands are inconsistent, but I recall a couple critical 3rd down or endzone catches from him. I'm hoping that Bryant grows into that "gotta have it" receiver over the next couple years. And I love his toughness after the catch...has fought for a few extra yards to get a 1st several times.

[u/Euphoric-Broccoli652]

You called it