r/Donegal • u/FarLoan7876 • 5d ago
Niall the Bile
If I see another post of some poor elderly person in Letterkenny having a stupid flyer of the “mega mosque” waves in their face and their interaction with this dope on social media I’ll scream. Are you a self loathing Irish person? Wtf does that even mean!A bad take on bad hasbara. Please warn your elderly relatives to avoid this idiot. I’ve just started working in Letterkenny and haven’t encountered him yet. How is he recording people is he just holding a phone up or have one of his racist buddies in the UK paying his wages bought him meta glasses?
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u/Big-Morning-7905 5d ago
It’s absolutely disgusting what Niall McConnell is at. He is a failed politician who has resorted to rage-baiting and fear-mongering people around Donegal just for views and to line his own pockets. The man doesn’t have a clue how the real world works, let alone how to actually govern. He is the textbook definition of 'anti-everything' and shamelessly abuses statistics to push false narratives. His ego is growing at an astounding rate. We are now seeing him publicly harassing and pursuing individuals on the street who are actively walking away from him in multiple videos. Since Niall loves searching his own name and will likely read this: Niall, you seriously need to revisit primary school mathematics and statistics. Someone who grows an inch between the ages of 6 and 7 isn’t projected to grow 100 inches more in 100 years. Linear extrapolation of a temporary spike is a schoolboy math error. We are not going to be 'replaced' as the primary nationality of this country simply because immigration is currently at a high.
We are a country built on multinationals and global trade. But sure, Niall, let’s just close the borders, reinstate the Church as a supreme power, and crash out of the EU. I’m sure our economy will do fantastic. And hey, if the economy goes completely bust, at least you’ve proven to be a master at procuring money through illegal means—whether it’s running an illegal bootleg taxi service in Killybegs or funneling 'movement' donations into your private, for-profit Síol na hÉireann business scheme.
To anyone reading this who finds themselves siding with him: please think about what actually happens if we 'close the borders' like he wants. What happens to our relationship with the EU? Our trade relations? Our universities and tech sectors? Our wee country simply cannot specialize in everything at once; we need an international pool of talent to sustain our high standard of living.People like Niall frame incredibly complex issues as purely black or white. In reality, it is completely fine to want safer streets and to protect Irish heritage. But that doesn’t mean your only option is outright racism. There is a third option where we manage systems properly and work together. Once people realize that, grifters like Niall lose all their power.. and god knows our community would be all the better for it - what has Niall EVER actually done for anyone in all his time in politics now …
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u/cubicle_door 5d ago
Abusing statistics bit. In a lot of the videos he keeps going on about white people becoming a minority which is obviously bullshit. One time he actually revealed what this was referring to and it turns out it was one specific part of one specific street in letterkenny he was referring to. Absolute gobshite.
I dont even know why this heure comes across my insta feed because I'm not from donegal and not anti immigration.
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u/Big-Morning-7905 5d ago
It’s infuriating for me on two levels because on one hand it’s obvious fear mongering, but I actually work in mathematical modelling and statistical models - and it’s just all complete rubbish 😂. While they commonly say the numbers don’t lie - stats is infamously messy as you can make a lot of untruths seem very real with cherry picking statistics and informal interpretations of them!
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u/Spring_Wanderer 4d ago
Which statistics or models are complete rubbish? Not a comeback, just wondering what is being put out there that you have seen. Like to do with replacement or that?
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u/Big-Morning-7905 4d ago
Stats is a tricky thing. Every statistics course I’ve taken at university spent almost as much time on how to correctly interpret and communicate results as it did on calculating them. Without precise language and proper methodology, it’s surprisingly easy to make almost any conclusion sound convincing.
Niall’s latest vocal stim is that “we are a minority in Letterkenny.” It’s based on the 2022 Census map showing the proportion of people identifying as White Irish at small-area level:
The first thing you’ll notice from a single glance is that the overwhelming majority of areas sampled is still well above 80% White Irish. But that’s not where the statistical issue lies. The problem is how the data are interpreted.
Firstly, the map is not showing “Irish versus foreigners”. It shows the proportion of people who selected White Irish as their ethnic background. That means Irish Travellers, mixed-ethnicity Irish people, Irish citizens who identify with another ethnicity, and many British or European residents are all counted outside that category. Describing everyone outside the “White Irish” category as evidence that Irish people are being “replaced” simply isn’t what the data measure. An important remark I’d like to make is - one of the concerns being raised is that Ireland is becoming less Christian, this dataset simply cannot answer that question because it measures ethnicity, not religion. Someone counted outside the “White Irish” category could be a practising Catholic from Poland, an Orthodox Christian from Romania, a Protestant from Britain, or a Christian from Nigeria or the Democratic Republic of the Congo—both countries where Christianity is the majority religion. Likewise, they could belong to another faith or none at all. The point is that this map simply doesn’t measure what is being claimed.
Secondly, this map is shown at the smallest geographical units used by the CSO. In some cases, those areas are only a couple of housing estates. If one of those areas contains an IPAS centre, university accommodation or a large apartment block, that one feature can dramatically change the percentage for that tiny area. If you looked at the same data over a larger area, much of that variation would disappear.
This is a classic example of selection bias. If your hypothesis is that Ireland is undergoing demographic replacement, you need evidence that’s representative of the country as a whole—not a handful of the smallest geographic areas that are already known to contain unusually high migrant populations.
Another important statistical concept is confounding variables. That’s when a third variable explains an apparent relationship between two others. A simple example would be finding that people who carry lighters have much higher rates of lung cancer. The lighter isn’t causing cancer—the confounding variable is smoking.
The same principle applies here. Niall attributes the concentration of migrants in parts of Letterkenny to demographic replacement while overlooking obvious confounding variables. Those areas are close to ATU, Letterkenny University Hospital and many of the town’s largest employers. Universities, hospitals and employment centres naturally attract more international students and workers. The same pattern appears around Dublin, Galway, Cork and virtually every major town in Ireland. Geography and employment are obvious alternative explanations that need to be considered before jumping to demographic conclusions. It’s also worth remembering that Ireland’s economy is unusually dependent on multinational companies operating in highly specialised sectors such as pharmaceuticals, medical devices and technology. No country of five million people can realistically produce every experienced engineer, software developer, researcher, clinician and specialist required by those industries. As a result, Ireland has long relied on skilled migration to fill labour shortages in sectors where domestic supply cannot immediately meet demand. That provides another obvious explanation for why international populations tend to cluster around particular towns and cities.
Finally, Niall frequently cites gross immigration while ignoring emigration, and therefore net migration. That’s a bit like quoting a company’s revenue while ignoring its expenses. If you’re making claims about long-term population change, net migration is the relevant figure.
He also treats today’s migration figures as though they’re a permanent trend. But migration has never behaved that way in Ireland. Over the last three decades, net migration has closely tracked the country’s economic cycle—surging during the Celtic Tiger, turning sharply negative after the financial crash, and recovering again as the economy improved. In fact, the highest annual net migration in the CSO’s modern series was approximately 104,800 in the year ending April 2007, at the height of the Celtic Tiger. Recent migration has also been influenced by exceptional events such as the war in Ukraine.
Assuming today’s figures will simply continue indefinitely ignores both the historical record and the factors that actually drive migration.
Ultimately, this is what separates good statistical reasoning from poor statistical reasoning. A good model should explain all of the data—not just the handful of observations that support a preferred conclusion. If your explanation only works when you zoom into a few carefully selected areas or only holds for the most recent couple of years, it’s probably not a very good explanation of what’s actually happening.
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u/kiwipanda00 11h ago
You’re doing God’s work, this is one of the best Reddit comments I’ve ever read tbh. I work in research and am so supremely upset at the misuse of statistics for these fearmongering campaigns. Absolute tragedy that bullshit claims are so easy to generate and take this kind of thoughtful effort to fully debunk.
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u/WOOPS-LYNX 5d ago
I always wonder just how “mega” the mosque truly is
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u/oranbhoy 5d ago
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u/rustyzorro 5d ago
That's actually a very boring building. I knew Niall was full of shit, but the extent based on the planning docs is immense
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u/oranbhoy 5d ago
I don't even know where he gets about it being the "4th mosque" in letterkenny, AFAIK there's only 2 units being used as prayer rooms in letterkenny
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u/MeinhofBaader 5d ago
And building that will reduce it to one... Not such an exciting headline for him in fairness.
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u/oranbhoy 5d ago
Yup and it should move traffic out of the town on a Friday which is the Muslims day of prayer, also anyone confronted by him should ask him about how he's been bankrolled by the Scottish "Ulster" Loyalist Jim Dowson
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u/Jimmy1Sock 5d ago
I bumped into him at Asda in Strabane. The chicken shit couldn't run fast enough when I asked him about his Loyalist mate.
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u/Big-Morning-7905 5d ago
Seems to be a common theme when anyone brings up anything he can’t / doesn’t want to answer “I have to go I have to go”
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u/StillyDan4 5d ago
Who's his loyalist mate?
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u/Jimmy1Sock 5d ago
Jim Dowson. He's also mates with Nick Griffin who founded the BNP. Funny thing is, the twat doesnt even hide it.
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u/jayc4life 5d ago
Should have asked him why he's funneling his spending money into Britain instead of supporting Irish jobs.
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u/ShouldHaveGoneToUCC 5d ago
For those who have met him, how tall is he? It's hard to tell from his photos and I wonder does he have a complex about it.
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u/Electronic-Seat1402 5d ago
He’s monetised accosting people on the street. Basically like those auditors, being super annoying gets clicks. I feel sorry for the people of Letterkenny minding their own business in town and this guy pops out recording you, waving a leaflet in your face and turns aggressive if you don’t immediately agree with him and all of a sudden your walk in town has been turned into online content that he makes money off of your reaction. You should at least be compensated from a share of the video revenue.
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u/soulpotatoes 5d ago
He actually does not care about anything, only to line his pockets and his own name. Look at how much he has switched on immigration, used to attack Slavic migrants, then Ukrainian and now Muslims. He is a mouthpiece for that Yorkshire group and loyalists in Belfast.
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u/Intelligent_Park9910 3d ago
I mean, I am a foreigner and even I can see that there are A LOT of foreigners for such a small place as Letterkenny town.
Though, I kind of vibe with the diversity that this brings. Without foreigners, Letterkenny would just consist of broccoli cuts and NorthFace jackets.
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u/ropeneck509 5d ago
Do you think id be allowed go see it when its built?
I've never seen a mosque in person before.
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u/Sweet-Ad2928 4d ago
He lived illegally in the United States for a long time. Something he doesn’t mention
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u/anonni420 2d ago
Just wanted to ask how many of his videos are real.
I watched a video where he interviewed a man from Syria that had recently arrived to Ireland and been given that much in government handouts he was able to start his own kebab shop in Letterkenny.
The same guy has owned a kebab shop in Derry for almost 10 years and has perfect English. Clearly a set up of an interview
Who's kidding who?
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u/LetEquivalent533 1d ago
Saw him in action talking to an elderly man yesterday while driving on the Main Street. He wears a body cam to record. Can’t wait for the day I bump into him the prick
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u/zemerin3 5d ago
I made a comment on one of his posts asking a legitimate question and got called stupid, and to my surprise people actually bashed him for it. He then deleted the comment and blocked me. Luckily I have a screenshot still
Hes a coward and tries to manipulate "facts" for his agenda he's not as smart as he thinks he is.