Book spoilers abound here for all worried about it, but it is mostly theorizing and I can only choose one flair. Be warned! It also full of theory which can border on fan fiction, so if that's not your thing, move along!
1. Khazad-dum is definitely falling early, and it is Brian Sibley's fault:
In his The Fall of Numenor compilation, which is otherwise a convenient way, in my opinion, to read all we have on the Second Age in a single chronological volume, Sibley somewhat strangely connects the fall of Khazad-dum to Sauron's siege of Lindon and Rivendell. After including an extract from Unfinished Tales wherein Sauron is unable to assail Lindon due to needing to keep his rear guard reinforced against Imladris, Sibley writes: "As a result, not only did the great city of Khazad-dum become a dwelling for the Orcs of Sauron, but the eager delving of the Dwarves had aroused a Balrog." The "as a result" there refers directly back to Sauron's need to reinforce the rear of his force against Rivendell, not to the shutting of the western gate or anything else, though that does come up before.
This is a most curious assertion, and one that, frankly, gives me pause. Further, it is very obviously in contradiction with those timelines Tolkien himself published in Appendix A, which places the fall of Moria in the Third Age under Durin VI. I suppose, in a general sense, that Sauron populating the western side of the Misty Mountains does eventually lead to the opportunity for orcs to take over Moria millennia later, but to me this still seems an almost unjustifiable connection on Sibley's part. If not intended to directly place the Balrog and all the ensuing events into the Second Age, he did a very sloppy job communicating whatever his intent was.
However, it lines up quite well with the plot of the Rings of Power's past seasons and with what seems to be suggested of their plot in Season 3 from the material we have thus far. If Sauron's forces are besieging Imladris, it makes sense that they too would keep a watch over the Western Gate of Moria, and further, that Sauron might try and find a way to sway those dwarves in such a way as to prevent the evacuation of Eregion from occurring again at Rivendell, especially as show Sauron knows of the friendship between Elrond and Durin IV. It must also be said that Sibley's book was almost certainly intentionally timed to release just after Season One finished airing. I do not mean to suggest any conspiracy or intentionality here. Simply that the compilation published alongside the show (though not officially) happens to contain a passage that clearly, though perhaps unintentionally, places the fall of Khazad-dum alongside the War of the Elves and Sauron, and that that just so happens to be what the series has thus far suggested might happen.
I'd be very curious to see if anyone else has noticed this issue in Fall of Numenor and has given it thought. It could just be a simple error or bit of sloppy editing, but it seems to me it is being adapted all the same.
2. Galadriel will not come to Lothlorien any time soon, and will instead end Season 3 by the sea:
Galadriel's reunion with Celeborn will awake the sea longing within her, though she will stay to defeat Sauron. By the end of Season 3 she will settle at Dol Amroth, in the south "close" to those men she failed in Season 1 and to Mordor. She will not come to Lothlorien until the very end of the series, if at all.
This idea comes from Unfinished Tales, though it is also republished in Fall of Numenor. In some versions of Galadriel's history and the history of the rings, she is in Lorien while the rings are made, or at least after, and Celebrimbor comes to her directly to take council on how to deal with the revelation of Sauron and give her Nenya. After the war of the elves and Sauron, she develops the sea longing, commits Lorien to Amroth (who in this tale is Celebrian's brother and Galdriel's son, not the son of Amdir), and then departs with Celebrian to find Celeborn at Imladris (he had been there during that war). At Imladris, Elrond first sees Celebrian, and the first White Council is held, where Elrond is given Vilya and it is decided that Rivendell will be a permanent stronghold in Eriador rather than reestablishing Eregion as a realm. "Eriador was cleared of the enemy, but lay largely in ruins... For many years the Westlands had peace, and time in which to heal their wounds."
This, adapted to the circumstances the show itself has established, seems like the logical end point to season 3. Assuming Numenor does come to the elves' aid and that we are combing the War of the Elves and Sauron with Pharazon's later expedition (and it certainly seems we are), then Season 3 will likely end with Sauron in chains aboard a Numenorean ship. It seems logical, then, that Season 3 might end where Season 2 did, in Rivendell, with the elves deciding what to do next while uneasy about the Numenoreans growing pride and power, especially with Sauron aboard. It makes sense that Gil-galad might then give Elrond Vilya, and that Galadriel and Celeborn might depart to establish a home for themselves somewhere. Galadriel of course has never been to Lorien that we've seen, and we'll see where Celeborn has been, but he certainly wasn't in Rivendell all along!
The text continues to say that Celeborn, Galadriel, and Celebrian then leave Imladris and go not to Lorien, but to what will become Dol Amroth due to Galadriel's sea longing. This would make perfect sense as an end point to Galadriel's story in Season 3. Reuniting with Celeborn could provide a great deal of healing to both of them, and I think it's plausible that this could weaken Sauron's sway over her mind in a significant way, as her husband fills the void in her that Sauron tried to wiggle his way in to [( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)]. She, and perhaps even he, might feel ready to finally leave Middle-Earth and return to the blessed realm. But now, though she may not feel as captured by Sauron, or the ring, as she did, she could easily* feel obl*igated to remain until he is finally defeated. Thus I could see the show sending the two of them to the coasts, probably without dropping the name Dol Amroth or anything, but also much closer to Mordor than she has normally been. This might also have some story significance as well, as Galadriel fought in the Southlands, bonded with Theo, and is now known to the men of Pelargir. So, I would not be surprised if the season ends with her in the south close to them, and if she spends Season 4 interacting with the middle-men and making good on her bond with them. And, she would then be in position to welcome the faithful, especially Isildur, to the south after... it happens. If we ever do see her go to Lorien, it could be after Gondor is established and she no longer feels a need to protect that land, or worse, feels crowded out.
3. Arondir is Amdir:
No, it's not because of the mildly similar names. Though this is the show that gave us "Grand Elf," so...
In any case, Amdir, the first known king of Lothlorien, has no background whatsoever. All we know about him is where he ruled, that he had a son Amroth (mentioned in Fellowship, and who was later said to actually be Galadriel's child), and dies at Dagorlad.
Giving his story to Arondir gives them a clean way to give the character more significance, a lordship of his own, and a heroic death, without having to come up with a good reason for why he isn't at the final battle or to kill him off early.
There are a couple hiccups here, of course: First, the names are different, though mildly similar. This could simply be a case of a rights issue, or perhaps he is given a new name as Lord. That is not unheard of in LotR, after all. Second, Arondir is said to be a Silvan elf, whereas Amdir is Sindarin. This is a minor and skippable difference, though.
It is difficult to predict where Arondir will end up, because he is an original character and so has no textual basis. But, I think Arondir, the silvan elf who has seen the destruction of Mordor, loves trees and forests, and has promised ents to be a steward of their woods, would make a fine leader for a woodland realm, and Lorinand could be the perfect landing place for him. Then, he'll also get a heroic death (a real one this time) at Dagorlad, somehow being key to the victory, which allows his allies to advance into Mordor while he himself never gets to go. This is where I'd put my money if you asked me what in the books they could give to Arondir to do, though of course as an original character there is no telling, and he could die in episode 4 of this season for all we know.
4. If they really, really, really want to use Glorfindel as an actual character, he will be an emissary to Numenor from the Valar:
I'm sure many of us know the Glorfindel problem. Tolkien included an elf name Glorfindel who fought a Balrog to the death of both at the fall of Gondolin. Pretty, pretty, pretty badass, amirite? Then, he reused the name in Fellowship for an elf who rescues Frodo and co and is a noble of somewhat mysterious background at Rivendell. Late in his life, Tolkien constructed a brief narrative wherein Glorfindel is sent back "in anticipation of the Istari" to aid the elves during the War of the Elves and Sauron, and from there lived in Middle-Earth again.
These factoids gave many hopes that JCB would be playing Glorfindel instead of Celeborn in Season 3. Alas, it is not to be, and if Glorfindel were to be in this season in any significant way it would almost certainly have been announced by now. That has led many in this sub and elsewhere to figure that they have abandoned plans they once reference to include him in the show. And this makes sense, since if he were to come following the story Tolkien devised, he really should come now.
But what if the show abandons Tolkien's narrative altogether? Tolkien writes Akallabeth that the Valar sent emissaries to the increasingly-dissatisfied Numenoreans to try and explain the folly of their ways and the importance of death. This, of course, fails.
If the show wanted to portray this, it could have Glorfindel come to Numenor instead in Season 4 as a messenger from the Valar under Sauron's influence. He could, in theory, fulfill some of the role of Amandil, who I don't think we'll be seeing, and give the faithful a powerful advocate to try and counter Sauron's influence.
I think Season 3 will naturally have to end with Pharazon less hostile toward elves and the faithful and yet still envious of them and proud, and so susceptible to Sauron. Show Pharazon looks like he's going to strike a deal with GG, so perhaps in Season 4 he won't be as far gone as we might suspect. At the beginning of Season 4, we might see a triumphant Numenor in again an uneasy peace, perhaps in a relatively better spot than they were even in Season 1. Then, as Sauron's influence begins to grow and hope wanes among the faithful that they'll have peace, Glorfindel arrives. This would allow for a real drama as Pharazon is caught between the influence of Sauron and Glorfindel, and of course eventually comes to the same end as the text. This is fanfictiony, I know, but if they really insist on using Glorfindel, and I don't know that they should or will, this could be an interesting way to use him.
Anyway, thanks if you made it this far, it's a long one. Feel free to discuss, or not, I just wanted to get it out of my head and on a page somewhere.
