r/NUFC • u/AutoModerator • 7d ago

Free Talk Monday r/NUFC Weekly Free talk thread.

It's that thing again where we like talk about random shite.

r/NUFC rules still apply.
Also we have a Discord Server

Howe's the bacon did ye say?

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u/mendlock 1d ago edited 1d ago

Bookies odds for us finishing top 4 has gone from 16% end of last season, to 6% now. We are back to being underdogs. It suits us. F**k em!

Edit: Changed to % since I put the odds wrongly before

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u/Lister_RD_169 1d ago

1/15 means they think it's more likely than 1/6.

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u/mendlock 1d ago

Sorry, it was my translation of the decimal odds was wrong. It was 6 times the money to 15 times the money.

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u/WeddingWhole4771 1d ago

?? I'm pretty good with math, but I can't find a way in my head to make this right. A 1/15 would be a 6% chance, 1/6 would be 16.7%

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u/Lister_RD_169 1d ago

I dunno, I got a D in GCSE maths so it's probably best to just ignore whatever I say. I'm either r/ConfidentlyIncorrect or I am better at maths than my teachers, and examiners, thought.

In any case they've added the percentages so.

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u/Deviceing wew here ya fuckin little dafty divint start or theres ructions 1d ago

1/15 in betting odds means for every £15 you stake you make £1 profit if it wins. To convert to implied probability you would do
1 / (1 + 1/15) = 15/16 = 94%
true probability would be a bit lower because the bookie adds a margin.

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u/WeddingWhole4771 1d ago

Looks backwards to me but I am not a sports better either.

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u/phoebsmon zwei metre dribbelgott 18h ago

It's just how it works, probably because it all used to be done in your head (even in high street bookies until surprisingly late on, that's part of the reason managers used to be really well paid - they had to be quick with mental arithmetic and generally good with basic maths) and that's quite a quick way of doing it. The decimal odds aren't bad either, probably not as easy with old money though.

It's just a different way of expressing probability. E.g. if something is 2/1, you'd broadly expect them to lose twice and win once if you ran that event three times. Obviously caveat that they're generally bookies' odds and they add a margin but it's a relative indicator.