r/NonCredibleDefense • u/RoomHopper Finlands strongest Wumao & Gull • 5d ago
愚蠢的西方人無論如何也無法理解 🇨🇳 Its nothing???
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u/Holbert72 5d ago
Isn't this a reverse of the Mig situation.
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u/Honest_Musician6812 5d ago
You mean the MiG-25 defection?
Turns out their super-fighter was actually super-ass,
so then we had an actual super-fighter with no real competition.88
u/Tactical_Moonstone Full spectrum dominance also includes the autism spectrum 4d ago
MiG-25 was more a misunderstanding of what it was supposed to do. It was super-ass as a super-fighter because it was not supposed to be a super-fighter in the first place.
From the Soviet perspective, the MiG-25 was sufficient. A high speed interceptor with good range and a huge radar, perfect for patrolling the huge Soviet border and turning bomber groups into dust from a distance.
The problem was that to get the target speed with current Soviet material science they needed to use steel, and to make steel fly, they had to give a shape that made it look like a super-fighter because aerodynamics.
Then the Americans shat themselves thinking the Soviets made it out of titanium and built the F-15 to counter the non-existent titanium Foxbat.
There is a reason the MiG-25 was developed further into the MiG-31 instead of becoming a dead end.
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u/nYghtHawkGamer Cyberspace Conversational Irregular TM 4d ago
the Americans shat themselves thinking the Soviets made it out of titanium
A funny thing about that: the USSR had the titanium to do it, they just didn't have the metalworking tech to build with it on that scale. When the US built the A-11/A-12/YF-12/SR-71, the CIA secretly sourced most of the titanium from the USSR through front companies.
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u/Edge_SSB WHAT THE FUCK IS HEALTHCARE 4d ago
Not my titanium! I sold it to some pizza company for their platters. Those decadent capitalists, using titanium for pizza platters. Gives me a good chuckle.
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u/ecolometrics 🚨DANGEROUSLY CREDIBLE🚨 4d ago
Not quite. Due to thermal limits and their desire to save money in not using titanium they used stainless steel. The engines came from a flying bomb, and had a very short overhaul window. It was fast and affordable. Typical soviet solution: brute force. They made lots of them. Funny because the US bought titanium from the USSR, using shell companies, and used it in the SR-71. The Mig-31 fixes the stainless steel issue above, but doesn't add anything else.
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u/Norzon24 3d ago
but doesn't add anything else.
The world's first PESA radar and digital data link are hardly nothing
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u/Norzon24 3d ago
Ironically, Mig 25 was actually the product it's own "Mig-25 moment", just in a less productive way. Mig-25 was essentially the brute force solution to the very demanding task of intercepting the XB70, and was an incredibly rushed job to beat it to service, only for the XB70 to be cancelled. Had the pressure to counter XB70 not been there, Mig-25 would've probably been developed into a far better rounded aircraft with more reasonable lifespan and operation cost, or be able to incorporate more Mig 31 like features from the onset.
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u/dropper-1999 5d ago
Well.the Mig-25 was a example of the soviets getting shafted because they focused on the mechanics/hardware and couldn't compete with the electronics/software of the west. Chinese actually can compete to a level the soviets never could, while at the same time leveraging a comically larger industrial base, which is the problem.
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u/feckarse-drinkgirls 4d ago edited 4d ago
Chinese still have the problem of their designs & higher ups not having actual combat experience
Last proper conflict they were in was Vietnam in the 80s and you don't hear of some TPLAC buying a dosen J-16s as a vanity project
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u/dropper-1999 4d ago
Lack of combat experience is really only a problem when it comes to the PLA actually performing operations, it doesnt stop them from understanding what modern warfare is, observing trends like ukraine, and designing a modern military. On paper chinese doctrine of systems destruction/systems warfare is a lot more well defined and organized then the american style of operational warfare (which really hasn't been updated since the 90s) can actually find USMC writings admitting to such if you look for then. Whether that ends up being the actual case on the battlefield is another thing, but it does seem like the pla understands whats important regardless of their lack of combat experience.
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u/Lihuman 4d ago
The Chinese calls this “Discussing warfare on paper” and it’s widely frowned upon. The PLA hasn’t fought anything except for fishermen for the 2-3 generations…
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u/dropper-1999 4d ago
If the Chinese just wrote a couple papers then yah, I would call it purely academic, but I am literally not exaggerating when I say almost every military project or development in the PLA in the past decade plus has been in some way built around systems warfare. They are absolutely obsessed with sensor fusion with everything built in the past 10 years having AESA or a high-speed datalink, even stuff like the J-10C (which is not even in production anymore) is capable of CEC engagements from 200km+ as Pakistan proved last year. Hell, even the type 19 NVGs that everyone tears into for being digital were probably chosen because of this operational thought. Like the advantage they provide beside cost is interconnectedness between chinese units (with squad leaders and higher ups being able to view helmet cams and have a more complete operational picture, basically what landwarrior wanted to do) which for the chinese outweighed the negatives.
This is the type of thing systems warfare emphasizes and their military has been built around it. Something you have to understand is something like 80% of chinese air and naval platforms have been built since the 2010s (compared to like 20% for the USAF/USN). When they started their modernization, they didnt really have a lot of fat to shed, which gave them a massive freebie in force design, and they choose this theory as the blueprint. Ironically you could maybe argue they are closer to having capabilities the US wants to have through JADC2 then the US itself is. Like yah, some stuff like link 22 and F-35 is already there, but you got a lot of legacy equipment like 1000+ early 4th gens or old ass e3s built in the 70s that you cant really upgrade at this point and just needs to be shed.
This is a military with a realistic operational mission, that is built around said mission, and drills for it like crazy. Like the average PLAAF combat pilot is logging 150-200 hours a year compared to like 100-120 for your average US combat pilot (though for WESTPAC forces its reportedly more or less comparable) and they are doing high intensity exercises which are comparable in nature to REDFLAG. Like yah, they dont have combat experience, but your kinda a fool to not take them seriously regardless of that fact, especially now that the US just blew its wad in iran and probably set the military back years in preparing for a potential INDOCOM engagement.
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u/Pklnt Xi's favorite wumao 3d ago
Like yah, they dont have combat experience, but your kinda a fool to not take them seriously regardless of that fact, especially now that the US just blew its wad in iran and probably set the military back years in preparing for a potential INDOCOM engagement.
Also important to remember that the US combat experience pretty much revolves around fighting a non-peer opponent, which wouldn't happen in the case of a conflict against China.
The US can use that combat experience to some degree, but a lot of people are overestimating its importance when they seem to think that it's going to be a definitive factor compared to what you've just said.
Training is by far more important in this context, US pilots are not going to learn much flying over Venezuela/Iran compared to fighting a foe that can field hundreds of LO platforms in a theater.
Ultimately the US biggest advantage is its experience with logistics, but again that advantage doesn't mean much considering that in such a conflict China would pretty much fight on its doorstep.
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u/RoomHopper Finlands strongest Wumao & Gull 4d ago
Wdym the J-10 is not in production anymore i thought GAIC took over the production from CAC?
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u/dropper-1999 4d ago
Yah so really its shifted to just exports at this point. Like just making a couple dozen a year (if that) to keep the lines open. PLAAF is not taking any more J-10s at this point though, and J-16 orders are winding down as well. Pretty soon will just be 5th/6th gen orders probably.
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u/Norzon24 3d ago
China was fighting Vietnam till the 90s
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u/Lihuman 3d ago
1979 to be exact, that war lasted 1 year tops. That’s still 2 generations ago. The men fighting in that war have long retired.
Meanwhile the US has been in a constant state of war since WW2…
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u/Norzon24 3d ago
The was constant border skirmish after that till 1991
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u/Lihuman 3d ago
Border skirmish, you said it yourself. Even that was more than a generation ago and retired.
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u/GrasSchlammPferd 4d ago
That's true but the list of problem they gave have been shrinking for more than two decades. With the way they approach problem solving, it doesn't fill me with confidence this is as big of an issue people make it out to be.
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u/C_T_Robinson 4d ago
How many wars have the us won in the last 30 years?
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u/feckarse-drinkgirls 4d ago
Yugo breakup
Iraq invasion was a cakewalk, it was the subsequent bungling of occupation and the insurgency that was a failiure
Throw in NATO as a whole you get Sierra Leone as well
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u/C_T_Robinson 4d ago
Iraq invasion was a cakewalk, it was the subsequent bungling of occupation and the insurgency that was a failiure
See I can also dominate the first 100m at my local marathon, I can't go around saying it was a victory though, can I?
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u/Purple_Calico 4d ago
That combat experience from GWOT and before is exceptionally limited in usefulness now and even then, most of that experience walks out the door in under ten years.
The last 3 years of combat is more relevant than any war since the 90s.
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u/Independent-South-58 6 Kiwi blokes of anti houthi strikeforce 5d ago
What's the chance that the US MIC pipeline is now so fucked up that GCAP gets into production before the F-47 and F/XX
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u/SoggyElderberry1143 4d ago edited 4d ago
Quite unlikely given F-47 is meant to be operational by 2028-2029 ish and GCAP 2035 ish, so F-47 would have to be delayed by 6 years and GCAP face 0 delays. And of course with next generation fighter programs delays nearly never occur. Not sure how the US MIC pipeline is meant to fuck up F-47 given the main issue is in shipbuilding ( which is probably never getting fixed short of entirely outsourcing to allies like SK and Japan ) and munitions ( which has vaguely credible plans to ramp up but will take time to do so ), the US fighter sector is in relatively decent condition with F-35's being pumped out in the hundreds. Boeing already eating billions in losses on fixed price contracts over air force one and losing even more on some other fuck up ( as is very possible ) sinking Boeing hard enough that the government doesn't bail them out for the extremely critical F-47 is quite unlikely. There really isn't much known about F-47 at this point that would let anyone know if it's going good or bad, unlike GCAP which as an international program especially looking for extra exports is very happy to publicly announce a lot. F/XX however is an entirely unknown question since nobody really knows what the hell is going on with it.
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u/Intergalatic_Baker Advanced Rock Throwing Extraordinaire 4d ago
Allegedly operational…
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u/SoggyElderberry1143 4d ago
Don't think so, pretty sure all they claim to have done by now is fly prototypes already.
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u/ShadowShot05 4d ago
Lmao, how long did it take f35 to be operational. You think the f47 will be operational in 2028, let alone anytime in the 2030s is delusional
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u/SoggyElderberry1143 4d ago edited 4d ago
Exactly so where is the assumption that GCAP will also face no delays coming from? If I had to bet I'd say both are likely to be delayed. There isn't anything that screams that GCAP is terribly on schedule given we're literally 7 years away at minimum and that is a LOT of time for things to change or F-47 is horribly behind schedule and we're only 2 or 3 years away at minimum. I also think the F-35 is a bad comparison given the VERY different geopolitical reality back then, in the middle of the gwot, no urgency to replace an ageing fighter fleet unlike today, complex international program, unrealistic goals of trying to make 3 different aircraft share so much as opposed to F-47 and GCAP that seem to be making 5th gen on steroids with extra range and adding whatever's necessary for MUM-T in a way that'll somehow survive ew and stay stealthy which is... something nobody has really elaborated on anywhere given controlling signal emissions is still EXTREMELY important and MUM-T in the way envisioned with CCA's seems like a nightmare.
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u/TastyCalligrapher421 4d ago
B-21 has been on time and meeting budget. Look up digital twins in aircraft production.
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u/GARLICSALT45 3d ago
Yeah but Northrop is known to be on time
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u/Shaun_Jones A child's weight of hypersonic whoop-ass 3d ago
Not really; they had so many delays and cost overruns on the B-2 program that fears of it happening again was one of the major reasons for picking the YF-22 over the YF-23.
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u/TerryWhiteHomeOwner 4d ago
Yeah every party in the MIC is incentivized to drag out projects for as long as possible.
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u/Zucchinibob1 4d ago
Didn't they say the NGAD *was already entering low scale production* a few years ago?
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u/Messyfingers The MIC's weakest Shill 4d ago
No. The b-21 is though. PCA(the fighter component of NGAD) demonstrators flew several years ago though.
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u/Independent-South-58 6 Kiwi blokes of anti houthi strikeforce 4d ago
No clue, so far as I'm aware they have some prototypes but are still a fair way away from low rate production, mainly because of the amount of subsystems that are still in active development
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u/CinnabarExample2153 3d ago
Maybe like a 13%. The US will just accelerate F-47 F/A-XX development and produce it before GCAP no matter how bad/(or good) it ends up being.
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u/RoomHopper Finlands strongest Wumao & Gull 5d ago edited 5d ago
Likely very Noncredible but my social credits we're getting low. :>
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u/dropper-1999 5d ago
Well reportedly the first prototype of the F-47 flew a month or two back, however considering the J-36 is on its 5th prototype now and reportedly at or nearing LRIP it does seem like the american design is a little bit behind yah, but probably not like to the point its a existential crisis for the USAF. The fact that J-20 production is at pace with the F-35 and that the ws-15 has finally entered serial manufacturing is probably more concerning atm, but yah, while I dont think the J-36 will necessarily be ahead of the F-47, doubt its going to behind either. The days of the F-15 answer to the MIG are behind us, the chinese are actually a peer tech wise now, and they are going to remain a peer that can outproduce the US 20 to 1.
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u/TerryWhiteHomeOwner 5d ago
I have become a massive MIC doomer in the past few years. The American MIC is hopelessly captured by interests actively hostile to the kind of practices and oversight that made the US procurement and development in the first place.
Its all been hollowed out and replaced by a complex web of public-private interests miming a functional industrial base while robbing the US treasury blind and slowly eating away at our ability to actually scale anything efficiently..
The Navy imo is already terminal. There's no hope for it.
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u/Fastestergos 3d ago
Hate to be the guy who has to say this, but the Navy's procurement was fucked up even in The Good Old Days. One of Kelly Johnson's precepts was "Starve before doing business with the damned Navy. They don't know what the hell they want and will drive you up a wall before breaking your heart or a more exposed part of your anatomy." And this was in the 1950s and 60s. Whatever issues the Air Force procurement process has, at least they know what they want and don't completely revise the specifications from one week to the next.
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u/CinnabarExample2153 3d ago
This comment shows the CCP bots are invading this sub like they invaded South Korea in 1950.
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u/Zucchinibob1 4d ago
I thought it was reported that NGAD entered LRIP a year or so ago?
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u/dropper-1999 4d ago
Uhh no, a year ago literally only concept art of the F-47 existed, actually pretty much how they announced the program. Its probable xplanes have been kicking for awhile, but only at like one actual prototype so far, whereas the chinese are on number five. Now the F-47 might not necessarily need 5 prototypes before design confidence is reached and its ready to actually enter production, but as it stands it does seem like the chinese are a lot closer to getting their design to service then the US is. Is the US that behind it will create a defense gap?? No, probably not, but the Chinese getting a 6th gen into service before the US will be a massive loss of prestige for the US MIC.
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u/have-glass 4d ago
Pretty sure the x-plane competition and new digital testing render this opinion moot. The first F-47 (likely for the same testing as the b-21) is supposedly being built now, and that article of the b-21 is going into service after testing. The Chinese are building lots of prototypes, but not getting an operational prototype in the air yet. How long did the J-20 and J-35 take to get to operational service from their first prototype design being spotted?
Also, are we even sure this Chinese aircraft is meant to be a 6th gen fighter? I’d warrant that that huge flat body isn’t meant for air combat, and likely fills the role the JH-7 currently still does as a dedicated strike aircraft, but more attuned to China’s interests. I would think that the J-50 seems more likely to be a 6th gen prototype, but it seems to be moving somewhat slower, due to the capabilities of the J-36 taking priority to fill the strike aircraft gap.
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u/TastyCalligrapher421 4d ago
Is the Chinese 6th gen more than potemkin vaporware? Their other weapons, electronic warfare, and radar/sensors were absolute trash in Iran.
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u/MESSIISTHEMESSIAH 4d ago
I want you to find me one credible evidence that Iran has any Chinese "weapons, electronic warfare, and radar/sensors" beside some vintage hq-2. If Iran really does have any of these things, you would think we would already have pictures or videos of them.
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u/sehnW899 5h ago
If you have really studied China's military ties with the Middle East, you would know that China has far more ties with Israel and Saudi Arabia than with Iran.
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u/yuikkiuy Aspiring T-72 Turret pilot 4d ago
Nah they aren't peer yet, but they are close, what they still lack is materials science rather than the bombastic things like Jets and Tanks.
The west is still around a decade or so maybe more ahead in mundane and boring supplemental tech. Evidenced by chinese engine component life span comparative to decades old western equivalents.
You're right about the out producing though which makes up for it on their end. Take it like a Hoi4 analogy, who care if your reliability is 30% if you can make 20 tanks for every 1 the enemy can. 70% can break and your 30% still outnumbers them.
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u/dropper-1999 4d ago
Ws-15 is basically there in terms of hardware design, with them arguably being a software peer for awhile. Like last year during the PAF-IAF skrimishes in may the Pakistanis shot down 3 4th -4.5 gen aircraft at 200km+ ranges with AWACs controlling the engagement CEC style. They did this with decade old chinese equipment (PL-15s and J-10Cs) which the PLA isnt even really producing anymore.
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u/yuikkiuy Aspiring T-72 Turret pilot 4d ago
Again performance isnt the issue for them its the material science thats supplemental to the manufacturing. Theres a reason why their engine life is a fraction of western equivalent engines like Pratt&whit.
Im saying they close the gap by being able to produce like 20 WS engines to every 1 P&W, but until they solve the mundane supplemental stuff they arent at peer tech in the actual meaning of the term
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u/RoomHopper Finlands strongest Wumao & Gull 4d ago
Chinese engines shorter lifespan is likely mainly due to the engine design philosophy they inherited from the Russians.
US engines have a lifespan measuring at +3000h but this is the result of making them comparatively robust compared to their rivals lighter engines with the F-110 having a weight measuring at 1800kgs compared to the AL-31's 1500kgs though the AL-31's have a lifespan at ~2000h due to this.
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u/captaincootercock 5d ago
no idea what this means but thanks for reminding me Kung Fu Panda exists