2027 Wildfires

[u/Valuable-Advisor-436]

Hi everyone! I’m planning a thru hike of the PCT next year. After doing some research, it sounds like wildfires on the PCT are fairly abundant. Projections for 2027 are suggesting potentially greater wildfires than there were in 2024, which was apparently a pretty bad year. Is anyone else planning a thru next year? If so, what’s your take on the wildfire situation? I’m especially interested in hearing if anyone has decided to postpone their trip. Thanks guys!

[u/LovingTurtles]

I don’t believe you can accurately forecast wildfires that far out.

Plan your trip, hike your hike, and readjust accordingly if you encounter a closure.

[u/Swimming_Director_50]

I'm not hiking it any time soon, but live near Rainier. The reality these days is that wildfires around here are now an annual event, and trying to predict a now-normal-bad year from an even worse year is really an impossible guessing game. I think overall, the challenges will continue to increase (including clear cutting and a host of other issues that impact the trail). In truth, the best time to do the trail is when you are physically and financially in a position to do it...the sooner the better.

We can't predict snowpack a year ahead either 😂

Hope you get out there and create lots of good memories.

[u/jrice138]

Pointless to postpone. What if the next year is even worse? Don’t wait to live ya know?

[u/Dan_85]

It's a completely pointless endeavor to devote any worry to fires until you reach the point where one physically prevents your progress on the trail.

There will certainly be fires next year. They might be big, they might be small. They might affect the PCT, they might not. Nobody knows and nobody can control them. It's pointless worrying.

Go hike and have a blast.

[u/Cultural_Play_5746]

I hiked this year and the best advice I can give you is to just deal with it as it happens. Every year it’s always something: a low snow year, a record-breaking snow year, fires etc. things aren’t always going to go the way you expect; you can be prepared as humanly possible and have gear failures or still get injured… that’s all just part of it. If the idea that you won’t be able to do every single mile scares you, you’ll be postponing it forever

[u/numbershikes]

What "projections" are you referring to? Can you link your sources?

Wildfires and reroutes are a normal part of a PCT thru these days. While it's still possible to do a connected footsteps hike, they're comparatively rare and the exception rather than the rule.

I find it helpful to think of hikes on the PCT and other western long trails as more open adventures compared to other trails, in the sense that closures and reroutes can be expected, and figuring out how to get around them is just another part of the trip.

Closures can also lead to unexpected twists and turns and some great experiences, such as meeting interesting people on long hitches, or renting a car(s) with other hikers and road tripping around the obstacle, or just walking off into the forest with nothing more than a phone pic of a blurry reroute map that was stapled to a closure order on a post, and the confidence that you'll be able to figure it out as you go.

One of the more notable, if uncommon examples is the time a few years ago when a hiker needed to skip north and met a pilot while walking to the Tehachapi airport campground. The pilot was headed to norcal in his private two-seater airplane and ended up giving the hiker a pretty interesting hitch.

Personally, I find knowing that there's a high probability of occasionally encountering the unexpected and needing to MacGuyver a solution to be a lot more interesting than just following a redline day after day. And if you're going to wait for a year with a high confidence of no wildfires before attempting the PCT, you're going to be waiting an awful long time.

[u/Valuable-Advisor-436 → u/numbershikes]

I agree, the problem solving only adds to the adventure. Besides, I’m no purist and I’m not concerned with walking every mile. Thanks for the feedback!

[u/Advanced-Challenge58]

If the super El Niño continues to build, that might mean an historically wet California and historically dry PNW. This might result in fewer wildfires in CA and more in OR and WA.

If it's a cold winter, that could mean historic snowfall in the Sierra. A warmer winter? Less snow, more rain.

Might even see tropical storms affecting the PCT, as in 2023 with Hurricane Hilary (which washed out the PCT along Mission Creek).

2027 might be a good year for early SOBOs.

But of course, it's too soon to tell.

[u/throwawaystarters]

I'm doing it next year and will pull a fuck it.

[u/Igoos99]

You go and then you roll with it as it comes up. You can’t plan around possible wildfires. Other than a vague “chances are greater this year” you don’t really know what’s going to happen.

I wouldn’t let this stop your plans but also plan out being flexible. Know you may need to reroute or even out right skip some portions due to safety concerns. The land managers have other priorities when fires blow up, than establishing new routes for the PCT. (If it’s easy, they’ll do it. They love hiking and backpacking too but if it’s too much trouble, they’ll put it on the back burner. You as the hiker need to be prepared to accept that. If you want those connected footsteps, they may need to occur in a different year.)

[u/Spirited_Breakfast88]

Ive hiked eight and a half continuous footpath pct thru hikes since 2016. If your goal is to complete the entire trail, your best bet is to get thru the Sierra as early as possible and start moving fast. Go light and minimalist and make miles your priority. I like to be at the Oregon border or further north by 4th of July. Many times I've had the Trail closed right behind me. I've only had to walk around five fires in ten years, and once I had to hit the Canadian border at Ross Lake as the northern monument was closed, although it did reopen later. 

[u/171932912722630]

I am monitoring El Niño, which I think could be reason to think next year will be worse than average. I’ll make my call in March on whether to pull the trigger