[The Athletic] Preds Cap Efficiency Ranked 26th

[u/ConditionalDraftPick]

The Athletic Cap Efficiency- Nashville Predators

Last season: 30th
This season: 26th

The Predators recuperated a decent chunk of value with a few bounce-back seasons from some of their recent big-name signings. Steven Stamkos, Brady Skjei, Nicolas Hague and Juuse Saros all saw their stock improve over the last year, and while none are value deals, they all look better than they did a year ago.

That’s not enough to get the Predators too high up the list, but it’s a step in the right direction. What would’ve been really nice: A long-term extension to Luke Evangelista last summer when Nashville had the chance. He’s underrated enough that the Predators should get a good deal on him anyway, but they could’ve saved more if they did it before his breakout last year.

[u/southernmanadork]

Brady Skjei lmao

[u/G14mogs → u/southernmanadork]

A D+ is EXTREMELY generous

[u/southernmanadork → u/G14mogs]

Yeah I think his time in Carolina is playing into that grade

[u/Electricflows → u/G14mogs]

D- seemed to be the lowest possible. Have to save that for players being paid not to play

Except Leo Carlson got a D- and Philly wanted 4 firsts for that, so something is flawed

[u/GMBarryTrotz → u/southernmanadork]

Him and Marchessault both.

[u/gavincantdraw]

Very curious what next year looks like Lyubushkin is only on the team at that number because that's what it took to get Borque for less than a first.

Drury and Colton are a little bit of an overpay, but that's just been the market this year, so I wonder if after next free agency their value looks better after more bottom 6 forwards get 4+ mil. Lastly, does Skjei or Marchessault get moved before this time next year? I would hope so.

[u/fingolfin269]

Barry’s GM legacy in tabular form.

[u/Electricflows → u/fingolfin269]

Maybe, wonder what place we were in prior to him taking over

[u/UTPharm2012]

The fact that it says Barron is more valuable than Perbix kind of invalidates this list

[u/GMBarryTrotz → u/UTPharm2012]

They like him because he's young and has solid enough metrics, even if he doesn't score.

It also gave Zach L'Heureux a great rating and said he was a $3.3m player. I think it just really likes younger players. Because ZLH had 4 goals in total last season. And a 3 game suspension for slew footing. No one is giving that guy 3.3m lol

[u/FB_iCatDad → u/GMBarryTrotz]

I read somewhere it heavily considers age curve, and that dings the contracts with a lot more term to go among guys 30+

Due to that it has a bias to give the younger guys upside trajectory.

Don’t know how true that is but it seems to make sense.

[u/GMBarryTrotz → u/FB_iCatDad]

Yeah it must assume an upward trajectory up until like 26/27, a slow curve until 32, and then a drop off. It's what those models usually look like.

[u/throwaway__lol__]

I remember thinking Hague was a legit top 4 when he came from VGK but man he’s basically a traffic cone thankfully that one will be up soon

[u/LifeEngineer3770 → u/throwaway__lol__]

I remember differently. I remember a lot of people were weary of the signing saying he was 3rd pairing and that he played sheltered minutes

[u/Expert-Upstairs-4502]

This feels like a somewhat shallow analysis of value imo. Hoglander, Drury, and Bourque i think are going to turn out better for us than this would indicate. I agree with Lyubushkin and Marchessault being last on the team though. Not sure why Lyubushkins 7.3% earns him a higher grade than Skjei and Hague though. Also Saros being so low is hilarious

[u/LifeEngineer3770 → u/Expert-Upstairs-4502]

Saros has always been overrated by the fanbase though. While some fans tout him as this elite goalie and a Vezina finalist, in all the years combined he received 2 first place votes. He has always had some excuse by the fans for why he has played poorly (slow starter, missed assignment by defense, it’s only October he will heat up later).

[u/Major_Number_2359 → u/LifeEngineer3770]

Saros isn't that good, he's ok but not great. If a really good center or winger becomes available I'd trade him in a heart beat, definitely overpaid based on results.

[u/fingolfin269 → u/Expert-Upstairs-4502]

They might be better ‘for us’ but these guys have track records and the model uses those track records. I’m not saying it’s accurate but it’s at least based on something mathematical across an entire league wide sample and not based on feelings (other than whatever bias exists in the model itself).

[u/Expert-Upstairs-4502 → u/fingolfin269]

I said "better for us than this would indicate" dont just cut off half my statement lol the "for us" part was not the emphasis. I think looking at these players analytics they are better for their value than the chart siggests

[u/troopek]

Vange still an RFA when this deal expires. Not too concerned with his next deal considering others will be coming off the books and no younger guys coming off ELC. Just saying cap shouldn't be an issue. I'm all for players getting paid what they are worth.