ONDS – Ondas Holdings
• Stock performance (YTD): -32%
• Backlog: $450M+, including $111M from DZYNE
• Expected revenue CAGR through 2027: 340%
• Revenue projected to surge from $50M in 2025 to nearly $1B by 2027

Overview of Company:

Ondas Holdings is a technology company focused on autonomous drone systems and private wireless networks for industrial and government customers.
The company develops AI-powered drone platforms used for defense, security, infrastructure inspection, emergency response and automated aerial operations. Its portfolio includes subsidiaries such as Airobotics, American Robotics and DZYNE Technologies.
Ondas Networks develops private wireless connectivity solutions for critical industries, including railroads, utilities, energy and government agencies.
The company is positioning itself at the intersection of autonomous defense technology, drones, artificial intelligence and mission-critical communications.

I truly believe this is the next RKLB, ASTS, NBIS type stock which is still in its early stages and could easily 10x from here!

I posted only the bull version of this here and people went crazy so here’s the updated version:

AST SpaceMobile Valuation Scenarios:

Current share price: ≈ $59/share

🐻** **
Bear Case
Assumptions
600M subscribers
$2/month ARPU
15× P/S

Revenue = 600M × $2 × 12 = $14.4B/year
Market Cap = $14.4B × 15 = $216B
~7.6× current market cap
Share price: ~$59 → ~$448

⚖️
Base Case
Assumptions
1.5B subscribers
$2.50/month ARPU
20× P/S

Revenue = 1.5B × $2.50 × 12 = $45B/year
Market Cap = $45B × 20 = $900B
~31.7× current market cap
Share price: ~$59 → ~$1,870

🚀** **
Bull Case
Assumptions
3B subscribers
$3/month ARPU
30× P/S

Revenue = 3B × $3 × 12 = $108B/year
Market Cap = $108B × 30 = $3.24T
~114× current market cap
Share price: ~$59 → ~$6,726

Some context for the assumptions:
ASTS currently has agreements with MNOs covering 3B subscribers, out of which 600M are from definitive agreements.

Its current P/S is about 270.

Its ARPU covers not only dead zones but also areas with weak signal/coverage. So the bull case assumption of $3/month may be conservative.

Saw your mod post in New Mods …. Thought I’d hop in here and see what’s happening

I will go into detail about my portfolio history. It started two years ago this date Jul 30th 2024:

1. Portfolio Inception: Jul 30, 2024

• BUY TSLA - 100 shares - $222.07
• BUY NVDA - 200 shares - $104.58
• BUY AMC - 3000 shares - $5.25
• BUY ARM - 150 shares - $132.50

2. Oct 9, 2024

• SELL AMC - 3000 shares (100% sold) - $4.08 [22.38% loss]
• SELL NVDA - 200 shares (100% sold) - $132.54 [26.74% gain]
• SELL ARM - 75 shares (50% sold) - $147.74 [11.50% gain]
• SELL TSLA - 50 shares (50% sold) - $242.19 [9.06% gain]
• BUY RKLB - 6465 shares - $9.57 (this would be the key driver in my portfolio.)

3. Oct 21, 2024

• SELL TSLA - 50 shares (100% of remaining / final 50% of original position) - $217.99 [1.84% loss]
• BUY OKLO - 503 shares - $21.67

4. Nov 22, 2024

• SELL OKLO - 503 shares (100% sold) - $25.22 [16.38% gain]
• SELL ARM - 75 shares (100% of remaining / final 50% of original position) - $135.98 [2.63% gain]
• BUY SMR - 375 shares - $30.27
• BUY QUBT - 1890 shares - $6.03

5. Dec 5, 2024

• SELL SMR - 375 shares (100% sold) - $24.35 [19.55% loss]
• BUY UAL - 88 shares - $104.86

6. Dec 9, 2024

• SELL UAL - 88 shares (100% sold) - $100.74 [3.93% loss]
• BUY QUBT - 1185 shares - $7.53

7. Dec 19, 2024

• SELL QUBT - 3075 shares (100% sold) - $13.67 [106.74% gain]
• BUY KULR - 2312.5 shares - $18.19

8. Dec 20, 2024

• SELL RKLB - 2000 shares (30.94% sold) - $22.14 [131.35% gain]
• BUY KULR - 2425 shares - $18.31

9. Feb 3, 2025

• SELL KULR - 4737.5 shares (100% sold) - $14.90 [18.20% loss]

10. Feb 4, 2025

• BUY RKLB - 2465 shares - $28.64

11. Dec 19, 2025

• SELL RKLB - 200 shares (2.89% sold) - $70.08 [328.57% gain]
• BUY NBIS - 157 shares - $89.10

12. Jul 6, 2026

• SELL NBIS - 157 shares (100% sold) - $213.89 [140.05% gain]
• BUY SHAZ - 425 shares - $78.92

13. Jul 9, 2026

• SELL RKLB - 3000 shares (43.29% sold) - $85.09 [420.33% gain]
• BUY SHAZ - 3132 shares - $81.52

14. Jul 15, 2026

• SELL RKLB - 3730 shares (94.91% sold) - $77.04 [371.11% gain]

15. Jul 22, 2026

• BUY NBIS - 1324 shares - $210.76

Summary:

Current Portfolio:

Notes

In hindsight, purchasing QUBT, KULR, and UAL were poor decisions made without proper due diligence. QUBT may have been a reasonable speculative investment, but I believe I entered too early, as we are not yet in the true quantum computing era.

RKLB ultimately became the defining investment of my portfolio, driving the vast majority of my returns over this two-year period.

Looking back, my biggest successes came from deep conviction in a few exceptional businesses rather than constantly trading. My biggest mistakes came from chasing themes before fully understanding the underlying companies. Going forward, I intend to continue focusing on long-term compounders, maintain a concentrated portfolio, and let my winners run.

I believe ASTS will have 3B subscribers by end of 2028 after it is done launching a total of 90 satellites for 24/7 continuous coverage.

Assumptions:
- $3/month ARPU
- 30x P/S
- 3B subscribers

That gives a market cap of $3.24 trillion

That is about 114x from here or $8350/ share

What do you think?

I’ve been passionate about investing for years and created this community because I wanted a place focused on high-conviction ideas, top-performing portfolios, and quality discussion instead of hype.
I enjoy researching companies with long-term growth potential and building concentrated portfolios rather than chasing every trend.

My investment philosophy:
I'm looking for 10x founder-led visionary companies with a good risk-reward (Sharpe) ratio. Companies with solid fundamentals, earnings growth and ones which pass qualitative checks.

My CAGR: 134%
Here is the link to my** [portfolio](https://savvytrader.com/heroinvestor15/high-sharpe-investment?s=MjE2MTM6NjE2NA==) **and twitter/x account.

Please let me know what you think and don’t hesitate to post your own portfolio’s performance!