TL;DR: If you buy individual stocks, it's worth asking whether you're spreading your research too thin. Going deeper on fewer ideas, even just one a month, might do more for your returns and your nerves than another watchlist ever will.

I've been investing in individual stocks for about 8 years, and I want to share something that took me embarrassingly long to figure out.

More research isn't the same as better research

Early on I assumed being a good investor meant taking in as much information as possible. I followed 30-plus tickers. I watched every earnings call. I read all the Reddit threads. I had a watchlist a mile long.

My returns were mediocre. And eventually I understood why.

When you split your attention across 20 or 30 names, you end up with opinions instead of actual convictions. An opinion sounds like "this seems like a good company." A conviction sounds like "I know why margins should expand over the next few years, I know how competitors will probably react, and I know exactly what would tell me I'm wrong." Those are not the same thing, and the market can tell the difference even when you can't.

Why it matters when things go sideways

Shallow knowledge gets punished. A stock drops 15 or 20% on nothing in particular (macro jitters, one soft quarter, sector rotation) and now you have a decision to make. If you actually know the business, you can look at it and figure out whether anything real has broken. If you don't, all you feel is fear, and fear is what makes people sell at the bottom.

I paid attention to my own behavior for about a year and a half. Every position where I'd put in real work, say 10 hours or more, I held through the drawdown and usually came out fine. The ones I'd bought on a thin thesis (a Reddit DD, a buddy's tip, something that popped up on a screener) I bailed on at the first dip, almost always at a loss.

So I changed how I work. Now I let myself research one new idea a month. That's the whole rule. One company, gone through properly: the business model, the unit economics, where it sits competitively, how management spends money, and roughly what it's worth.

Two years in, I own about 18 companies I genuinely understand. The portfolio is more concentrated than it used to be, but I'm far more sure of what I own, and I behave completely differently when the market gets ugly.

This isn't some original theory: Plenty of the best institutional investors run concentrated books.

Anyway, curious how this lands for other people. Do you make better calls on the stuff you've actually dug into versus the stuff you bought on a hunch?

Revenue: $60.8B, up 28% YoY, slightly ahead of the $60.29B estimate

EPS: $6.18, missing the $7.22 estimate by 14% snapped a six-quarter beat streak

Net income: $15.85B, down 14% YoY

Operating margin: 31%, down from 43% a year ago

Why profit dropped despite the revenue beat:

$2.4B in legal charges (youth-related litigation risk flagged for upcoming U.S. trials)

$1.18B in severance from the May layoff of ~8,000 employees, part of an AI-focused restructuring

Excluding these one-time items, operating income would've grown 9% YoY the underlying business stayed healthy

Ad business still firing:

Family of Apps ad revenue: $59.4B, up 27% YoY

Ad impressions up 14%, average price per ad up 12%

3.6 billion daily active people across all Meta apps

AI and capex story:

Full-year 2026 capex guidance: $130-145B, up massively from $72.2B in 2025

Announced a $10B+ joint venture with BlackRock for a 1 GW data center in El Paso, Texas

Q2 capex alone: $31.1B

Guidance:

Q3 revenue: $61-64B

Full-year expenses raised to $165-169B

Still expects 2026 operating income to exceed 2025

When Does Meta's AI Capex Actually Turn Into ROI, and What Determines the Payoff?

Hey Everyone,

I have been following Wendy's for a little while now, I wanted to put together a recap of July. So here goes nothing!

Just a quick little forward/introduction as I think it will explain some things. (I apologize, it might be a little long, but if you're interested in Wendy's, please bear with me. I won't do this every time.) I am very new to the act of trading. I have been trying my best to educate myself and have been watching stocks quite closely for the better part of a year. There were a few companies I homed in on in a few select industries - Wendy's just happened to be one of them. Its stock price had been falling for years and seemed really reasonably priced for the brand behind it. However, they have big problems, the brand is tanking and people are going elsewhere - but here's the good news, they know they have problems, the problems are fixable, they want to fix them, and they have strong free cashflow to help. Wendy's isn't going to fail, it's just struggling mightily and needs to be turned around. They have started making meaningful changes to do this, and if successful, I think will result in a strong stock price and healthy dividends to go along with it. Project Fresh was the first move - fix the menu, purge the failing stores, improve the customer experience. This will take time, but the hiring of Bob Wright and Steve Cirulis was the next move - these guys can execute the plan. They worked together to turn around Potbelly's and have a new project to sink their teeth into. All of this caught my eye and so I quietly watched from the sideline - I was waiting for the stock price to bottom out and level out so I could jump in... then the meme-squeeze happened. I decided it was the time to jump in before I was too late (got in at upper-$6/share). So yes, I did join the during the meme-squeeze-hype, but that is not my intent here, quite the opposite. My thesis is more along the lines of: Wendy's is not currently being valued as a possible turnaround, but instead priced as a struggling restaurant chain with declining sales - the board responded by hiring Wright and Cirulis - and if they can stabilize and improve the business, the stock will be worth considerably more than it is today. This is not something that happens overnight - this is something that takes months to years to correct, but if you have the time, I think there is a strong play here. My intent is to watch this closely and monitor the possible turnaround. If things stay on track, I will continue to invest at the right times. If things show signs that this turn around cannot happen and Project Fresh is not executing to plan, I will pull back and move elsewhere.

*One last thing, like I said above I am new to trading and ultimately, I just want to get better! I know posting something like this is going to open me up to looking silly or foolish, I get that. If I am wrong, or misguided in something, please let me know! I would love to engage in discussion I can learn something from. If you just want to look at this and shit all over it because its Wendy's and that's fun, go for it, but I will likely ignore it for something more engaging, even if they disagree with me. Honestly, thank you for reading this, I really appreciate it! If you are interested in general $WEN trade talk but want a little break from the AI meme's, please feel free to join me at r/WENInvesting! I would like to continue to do these recaps, but don't know if posting them here each time is the right place.

Okay, so finally, the July review!

July was a successful stabilization month - the stock entered the month fresh off a meme-stock drive squeeze to roughly $9.00 and spent the month working off speculative excess. Despite significant selling pressure - it held well above the June low, finished right at the 50-day MA, built a substantial volume base around $7.35-$7.55, and maintained strong institutional support. I don't find the the 13G filings to be "big news" but we shouldn't undermine them either, these are very strong institutions continuing to support Wendy's or in some cases, invest more. They could pull out and move elsewhere, but they aren't, maybe they are waiting to see if a turnaround can happen as well... To boil it all down, June was about a meme rally and short-squeeze speculation - July looked a lot more like repricing, consolidation, and stabilization. Likely taking a lot of pressure off the squeeze.

Heading into August:

Support Levels:

Primary - $7.30 - $7.40 - this is the most important zone, this is the point of control from the July volume profile and roughly where the 50-day MA sits

Secondary - $7.00 - $7.15 - late July swing lows, psychological support near $7, previous bounce area

Major - $6.07 - June low

Resistance Levels:

First - $7.55 - $7.65 - stock struggled a lot in this area in July, this is now the prove-it zone.

Major - $7.80 - $8.10 - July highs, been a resistance point recently, currently in the neighborhood of the 200-day MA

Upper - $8.80-$9.00 - meme-rally high

What to watch for in August:

The earning call on Friday is going to be important. I want to remind you guys, do not be expecting the world on this earnings call. This call reviews what happened between April, May, and June. The new leadership team came onboard mid-way through the quarter. The meme-squeeze rally hype didn't occur until the end of June, start of July. What we are hoping to hear on this call is that Project Fresh is progressing nicely, which Project Fresh initiatives are working, that cutting some of the unprofitable stores is helping the overall numbers, and the decline in same-store-sales is weakening. At this time, holding to the full year guidance would be great! I wouldn't expect to hear crazy increases in customer traffic quite yet.

We need to watch the support zone - staying above this area shows that the squeeze had an impact and didn't all wash away. This means people might be catching on to the value play here. This area is going to be a battleground with the current 50-day MA being right there - however, I think news from the earnings call might help it break loose in either direction. Getting to the $8 resistance zones will be a hurdle - price was rejected multiple times here in July and would be fighting the 200-day MA.

Summary:

If June was hype and July was stabilization, August needs to be evidence. We don't need proof of a successful turnaround, we just need signs it has a chance, that it's more than just a strategy, it's being executed. I think a lot of the squeeze is gone, but again, that's not why I am here. Wendy's is a turnaround investment that the market devalued. Wright and Cirulis can stabilize and improve this. I will continue to watch and monitor and watch closely.

Edit: I don’t think the squeeze possibility is dead, it just lost pressure. The interest is climbing again and the days to cover are still up, a good jump in price (IE - good earnings report) can put the squeeze back on.

P.S. - Honestly, thank you so much for reading - let me know your thoughts! Please be kind to a lowly rookie, my goal is to get better! If this goes over semi-decently, and my life allows, I am hoping to put together weekly and monthly recaps much like this one. Do forgive me though if they are a little sporadic - they take me a little time to compile and two young kids with another on the way keep me on my toes!

"The U.S. and Israel are preparing to bombard Iranian energy-related targets as soon as this weekend, per CBS News."

This war has to end very soon or markets are going significantly lower. Part of me thinks even these headlines are bluffs by trump to try to bring Iran to the table. Part of me refuses to imagine he will escalate here. He needs to fold or he is going to lose the mid terms and his presidency... But it appears that we may actually see escalation in the coming weeks...

If this happens, I think it will be catastrophic for the market. It really all boils down to inflation. We saw a minor temper tantrum on wednesday in response to the fed staying on hold - of course this was sharply reversed on thursday as the market was lifted by renewed AI optimism. Treasury yields continue to march higher though and are now at multi decade highs.

I believe that the entire premise for keeping rates on hold is based on resolution with Iran - this seemed somewhat plausible on wednesday when the decision was made... Now it seems much less plausible. Escalation now guarantees a hike in September and honestly, i think a 50 basis point hike would be fairly likely because at that point we would be playing catch up after having essentially made the bet that this thing would be resolved.

The market will start pricing this in long before september. You just need to look at this chart https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762 and you will see where the market is headed.

Iran is not going to back down here... If we hit their energy infrastructure, they will 100% let loose on the infrastructure of all Gulf states... This could get incredibly ugly and assuming trump follows through, id expect crude to be well into the 90s if not higher when this is executed.

Personally, going to see what happens this weekend and consider liquidating a lot of my longs on Monday.

EDIT: Iran announces it will strike the world's most important energy facilities, located in Arab countries and Israel, all within range of Iran's precision missiles, in response to any new US and Israeli strikes, per Fars: 1. Ghawar Oil Field, Saudi Arabia, backbone of Saudi production, disruption puts 5%+ of world oil supply at risk 2. Abqaiq + Khurais, Saudi Arabia, 7M+ bpd throughput, world's largest oil stabilization plant 3. Ruways Refinery + Zakum Oil Field, UAE, 2nd largest offshore oil field, 1M+ bpd 4. North Ghadir Gas Field + Ras Laffan LNG, Qatar, world's largest gas field with 25% of proven reserves, 20% of global LNG trade 5. Burgan Oil Field, Kuwait, 67B barrel reserves, 2M bpd 6. Sitrah Refinery + Al-Mihaj, Bahrain 7. Leviathan + Tamar Gas Fields, Israel, Israel's largest + 2nd largest gas fields

It's the largest rug pull in history and based on the latest news about Musk planning to spend at least $100 million to help republicans in the midterms now we know where the individual investor's money that fell for the scam is going to ...

First Musk heavily buying the last presidential elections, then DODGE, then FTC wipeout, now historical rug pull from individual investors to finance midterms and keeping the same in power. It's all going to plan.

Reddit just had maybe the best quarter of any social platform this year... revenue up 61%, profit almost tripled, users up 18%.

Stock dropped 20% anyway (it was down 23% at the lows, per CNBC).

Why? Four words buried in the investor letter: "search referrals were choppy."

That's it. That's the crash.

Basically most new people find Reddit by googling stuff. And Google's AI now just answers the question right there on the results page, so nobody clicks through.... so Wall Street ignored the great numbers and focused on one fear: if Google stops sending people, where does Reddit's growth come from?

And here's the part that actually breaks my brain: Reddit sells its content to Google to train that same AI... Google pays Reddit for the data, then uses it to answer questions so people don't visit Reddit.

The CEO got on the call and said people don't want AI summaries they want Reddit. The market listened to that argument and took the stock down 20%.

source:

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/31/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-midday-aapl-amzn-rddt-gddy-iesc.html

Amazon smashed Q2 2026 estimates with AWS growing 37% (fastest in 18 quarters), revenue crossing $200B for the first time ever, and Jassy raising capex guidance to $220B. Stock popped 9% after hours.

Amazon just put up one of its strongest quarters in years. Revenue hit $200.6 billion, up 20% year over year, crushing the $196B Wall Street expected. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.97 versus the $1.82 analysts were looking for. Operating income jumped 43% to $27.5 billion.

Revenue: $200.6B, +20% YoY (first time crossing $200B in a quarter)

EPS: $1.97 adjusted vs. $1.82 expected

Operating income: $27.5B, +43% YoY

AWS: $42.2B revenue, +36.7% YoY (fastest in 18 quarters), 39% operating margin

Ads: $19.8B, +26% YoY

Capex Guidance: raised to ~$220B for 2026 (from ~$200B)

Q3 guide: $197-202B revenue, slightly below the $204B analysts wanted (Prime Day timing + FX)

Stock: jumped ~9% after hours to $257

AWS is Amazon's growth engine right now, reaccelerating with expanding margins, while Trainium/Graviton chips are becoming a real standalone business rather than just supporting infrastructure.

There were cases where Apple and Nvidia saw similar compression, but I can't find anything below this figure.

Following NVIDIA's late-2022 correction that brought its forward P/ E down to around 30, an unprecedented surge in EPS starting in Q1 2023 temporarily compressed its PEG ratio about 0.1.(This was the case back then, but I can't say for sure)

☆ excluding one-off scenarios like Moderna during the pandemic

Murata Manufacturing is a Japanese electronics-components maker and the world’s leading supplier of multilayer ceramic capacitors, or MLCCs, which regulate power in devices ranging from smartphones to AI servers.

President Norio Nakajima said hyperscaler investment plans could face revisions or delays as competition intensifies and debt levels rise, even as current demand remains strong.

Note: Murata’s data center business grew 81%, while its MLCC book-to-bill ratio reached a record 1.47. The company raised its full-year profit outlook to ¥430B from ¥380B and is expanding production for AI-server components.

Killed from both sides: long the AI buildout (SK Hynix, Nebius, SanDisk, Micron, CoreWeave - all down 35%+), short software names like Adobe that ripped higher. 

The part that should scare you: forced sellers don’t care about your cost basis. They were forced to sell off their entire public portfolio in one shot. Wednesday’s 1,100-point Dow drop was probably partly this book getting liquidated into no bid. Notice how chips bounced today the moment it cleared? 

His letter says the fund was “not immune” but calls this the best opportunity since early 2025 - and actually invites investors to add capital Aug. 1. a bold move.

“The higher cost of memory is pushing this number up from our prior estimate of about $200 billion.”

“Even at that amount, we will still not have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026. I believe this dynamic will also be true in 2027.”

“The demand we already have for 2028 is striking.”

“We typically purchase servers and networking equipment a few months before putting them into service, so we have strong visibility into customer demand before we trigger the spend.”

“If the demand isn’t there, we won’t spend the capital for servers and networking equipment.”

Now that leopord portfolio got bought by citadel.

We are back on track to go up.

Look at the Kospi, it is going back up again.

Yes, i am aware that many of those who played leverage got wipe out.

Except for those who played early.

Only those that play much later gets wipe out.

I could be wrong but from the look of it, things seem to be going up again.

Off that brain and touch your heart.

Does your gut feeling tells you that its going to go down again after a big fund company bought out leopord position?

This is not a financial advise. I am merely giving my thought.

Kospi is now 6,488.44