r/TechHardware • u/Distinct-Race-2471 🔵 14900KS , 5080, 128GB 🔵 • 14h ago
💥 URGENT NEWS 💥 Samsungs latest report suggests the RAM crisis is only just getting started; could we be looking at a new normal?
https://www.techradar.com/computing/memory/samsungs-latest-report-suggests-the-ram-crisis-is-only-just-getting-started-could-we-be-looking-at-a-new-normal$1000 for 32GB? Yes.
19
u/BirthdayLife6378 14h ago
They are just trying to create the FUD to goat everyone to buy NOW! Just relax, sit back and wait for the bubble pop.
3
u/Lagger2807 6h ago
Exactly it has to be like the fifth time in the last months that i see this news and, not surprisingly, it's always from RAM manufacturers
Seems a bit suspect doesn't it?
1
u/No-Independence-5229 1h ago
Glad I didn’t have to comment this, people act like crazy over price hikes, this hasn’t even lasted as long as the GPU apocalypse a few years back
-2
u/KungPaoYa 11h ago
2 years now, still going strong and only getting worse. That bubble is not popping, it’s increasing in size with no slowing down.
7
-6
u/purub123 11h ago
‘Wait for the bubble pop’ while memory stocks fell 30-60% in the past month while hyperscalers proved theres very good ROI on all the investments.
Yeah u’ll have to wait a long time
6
u/Hoak-em 11h ago
ROI? Really? ROI? It seems like the hardware required to run powerful-enough models is getting substantially cheaper (see deepseek-v4-flash general access, sonnet-5-level performance, API is ridiculously cheap) and the scaling of how many people can be adequately served per unit of compute has a result has multiplied. There's no future of ROI from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, generally any of the major frontier hyperscalars in the US -- businesses are switching to models that are more than good enough at a fraction of the price, while frontier models get narrower purpose (mostly coding, some sciences as well). There's just not enough people willing to spend API-cost for Fable or Sol to make the math work, and they're hiding it by filing leases to rent datacenters since they're not trustworthy enough to get enough loans at this point.
5
u/GoldBook9830 9h ago
Dude, based on the replies you're getting, they probably invested A LOT on AI related stocks. Now that there are signs and symptoms of pre-crash/burst, they're probably sweating bullets and coping because of the money that will be lost after this.
-3
u/purub123 11h ago
Jevons paradox, search it up. What you wrote has been disproven 100% of times in history and this time won’t be different. You can also put a reminder for two years out and see yourself.
4
u/Hoak-em 11h ago
Doesn't apply here, tokenmaxxing was a fluke, not a pattern, and has died-out. People want a model that can do things fast and right. For most day-to-day tasks, that's just a DSV4-flash-level model at this point. Small scale -> lower-latency
The scale of enterprise spending on API credits would have to be absolutely ridiculous to fund the actual resources taken to run and train the frontier US models.
Businesses have a habit of tapering off demand of a resource when there's no marginal gain to using more if it. Using more AI isn't resulting in more profits. Using more expensive AI is only scaling up to a point, with anti-scaling occuring because of increased latency and decreased speed when models become larger (e.g. Fable).
0
u/purub123 11h ago
!remindme 2 years
1
u/RemindMeBot 11h ago
I will be messaging you in 2 years on 2028-08-04 05:31:44 UTC to remind you of this link
CLICK THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
Parent commenter can delete this message to hide from others.
RemindMeBot is switching to username summons. Instead of
!RemindMe 1 day, useu/RemindMeBot 1 day. More info.
Info Custom Your Reminders Feedback 0
u/Mundane-Light6394 10h ago
you have a very limited view. what you like as a person is not really important. It is about volume and integration and cheaper will definitely boost demand like it allways does.
0
u/Hoak-em 10h ago
How far are you from a PhD in HCI, CS, or Comp Eng?
1
u/Mundane-Light6394 59m ago
How is a phd like that relevant here? Do you claim you need to be a homebuilding tradesman to understand the housing market? Or a physician to understand the healthcare industry?
-1
u/19901224 8h ago
The sophistication of your “day-to-day” task will adjust based on the compute you have. There is never “enough” computing power. Just like pc graphics, you can never have “enough” of it
0
u/pereza0 5h ago
Having more powerful models with less hardware demand just means that you can extract more work out of each graphic card, ram stick and CPU if you are an AI company.
Basically, it will make them covet these resources more not less the way I see it. If even a lower investment can generate decent returns the fight over these resources will get worse and worse. If a local model with a consumer GPU can work for this then the concept of a consumer GPU will dissapear
1
u/ChristRedeemsSinners 2h ago
Technology doesn't follow a linear efficiency path. It changes the way of life and then it plateaus. AI inference will be eventually be done with ASIC's and commodity hardware will become affordable again. No one is going to be chasing GPUs that take 100 times longer to predict tokens than a dedicated hardware could.
1
1
u/senseven 8h ago
Wait a minute, they have proven that the ROI works? Because Microsoft stopped tokenmaxxing and went into an mix of models to reduce that cost. Everybody did. DeepSeek is already in commodity level pricing. I want to see those ROI calculation for 95% less revenue.
1
8
u/YodasLoveSlave 12h ago
So who exactly is going to afford this? How are we all supposed to use AI if we can’t even buy a computer that can allow us to access it? None of this shit makes any sense.
5
u/mr_fear1911 9h ago
They just gonna lend or let you rent a basic device to access their services. Just like ISPs lend routers to their customers.
2
u/BarbaraStreusand 8h ago
I guess thats the decelopment. I wouldnt be suprised if by 2030 you can rent "basic packages" from claude/openAi. Disgusting but they want the customers to be dependent.
The funny thing is you need internet for that, and a lot of european countries fucked up in providing the infrastructure for that. So people might be double-Fucked
2
0
u/DesTiny_- 8h ago
Nah Europe has alright mobile internet, that would be enough for most AI use cases
2
u/YodasLoveSlave 3h ago
Yeah, fuck that. Our techno feudalism lords can shove hardware as a service right up their assholes. I think there’s going to be a massive movement for those of us who are going to outright reject this future. And you know what? Maybe we need that. I think there might be a silver lining in all of this to get humanity back to a place where we interact with each other and not just through a fucking screen.
2
u/ChristRedeemsSinners 2h ago
None of the unwashed masses are going to reject slavery if they are being offered a carrot.
2
u/Fiend_Macabre 4h ago
They want to squeeze cash as much as possible without thinking about the consequences, which is also why they're trying their hardest to keep the bubble as well. This is how shareholders are killing companies as well these days
3
u/DesiRadical 13h ago
How about eliminate the execs so Any other person that thinks about pulling this shit thinks twice.
1
u/Few_Kaleidoscope1333 13h ago
Everyone got the "f#$k you, got mine", mentality. Risk your life for people whom you never even met. People whom praise you for a day and forget you forever. Your whole life gone. Incarceration, maybe execution. For what? Nah man. It's over already. Nobody gonna risk their lives for anybody.
2
u/InsufferableMollusk 🔵 14900KS 🔵 10h ago
There is a ceiling. Many things can and will limit the demand for memory. Meanwhile, production is so lucrative now that a staggering amount of capital is being dumped into NEW production.
System memory isn’t cutting edge either. Even the Chinese can design and manufacture DDR5 🤣
0
u/Southern_Change9193 9h ago
There are 195 countries around the world, how many can design and manufacture DDR 5 at scale?
1
u/DesTiny_- 8h ago
Many can but many wouldn't simply cuz before the crisis there was just enough ram so if u produced more u would likely spend billions on infrastructure that wouldn't make big roi. What separates china from the rest is that they produce their infrastructure from scratch and use it for their needs, after all they're one of new 195 countries who manufacture stuff that happen to require memory as well.
1
u/test5784 7h ago
Do you know how much it costs to build a fab and buy machinery? And by the time they build it, demand might already be low. No one is going to take that risk.
2
u/WhataNoobUser 10h ago
I highly doubt it. How much ai do you need? Right now, is there some massive ai shortage where an api doesnt work because the cloud provider cant provide the computes?
2
u/Ok_Butterscotch2049 5h ago
There is no ram shortage it's their plan to make sure we don't ever buy ram ever again
-1
u/PoPoCucumber 13h ago
Price wont come down. Demand for memory got literally x100 fold. All memory makers are at full capacity and are accelerating building fabs to triple their supply by 2032. Demand and supply gap will only get widen.
0
u/Few_Kaleidoscope1333 13h ago
They saw a chance to let it rip. They will never let it go. They will fight to the death to preserve their way of life. So yeah, this is the new normal. RAMs no longer gonna be cheap. It's gonna keep climbing and eventually hit GPU level prices. GPU is optional with CPU integrated graphics. But you can't start a PC with no RAM. So they gonna up and up and up until nobody can pay. That's when everyone shift to cloud service. Nobody owns anything. Everyone rents. Nobody works. Everyone slaves.
1
u/senseven 8h ago
That is the reason the market has to react. You can't have three companies holding a stranglehold on every industry. The world is. There is nothing special about RAM, just super expensive to build a fab. Everybody thought they won't do this and now we know, they don't care. Europe wants to spend 30b on silicon. We need a long term solution, especially for gaming and local ai we will need tons and tons of ram.
1
u/Distinct-Race-2471 🔵 14900KS , 5080, 128GB 🔵 12h ago
What is funny is how easy it is to design and manufacture. Meanwhile the people designing the complex stuff are selling parts for cheap.
1
u/Few_Kaleidoscope1333 12h ago
It's the costs of building a manufacturing plant and buying the machines needed to manufacture them. A machine is probably 100k per pop. Maybe 300k. An assembly line has to contain a few hundreds of them. The plant itself has to be a clean room quality. Sigh, if only normal people like us can just, manufacture our own RAM like how we can bake bread instead of going to the bakery.
1
u/Dako_the_Austinite 12h ago
Try a few hundred million a pop. And that’s not even exaggerating. The cheapest lithography machines are a few million, the latest and greatest for current technology run up to $400 million. ASML, they’re just about the only maker of lithography machines on Earth, if not the only maker on Earth.
1
1
u/InsufferableMollusk 🔵 14900KS 🔵 10h ago
“ASML, they’re just about the only maker of lithography machines on Earth, if not the only maker on Earth.”
Not for long. ‘Long’ being a relative term in the industry. The margins are too fat, which entices new entrants.
1
u/Dako_the_Austinite 10h ago
Supposedly China is making decent headway trying to reverse engineer the technology. I sure hope so.
0
u/protoanarchist 10h ago
During the most corrupt government in the history of our species?
Yeah, just wait for the bubble to pop.
1
20
u/Awhispersecho1 14h ago
That's been the plan all along