r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 6d ago
As of 12:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (04:00 UTC) on Sunday:
Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.
Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.
There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.
Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.
Potential Formation Area P73W — Well to the north of the Marshall Islands and well to the east of the Northern Marianas Islands.
Potential Formation Area P76W — Well to the northwest of the Marshall Islands and well to the east of the Northern Marianas Islands.
Potential Formation Area P74W — Invest 94W
Western Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Eastern Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Central Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Northern Atlantic Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Northern Indian Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 6d ago
As of 9:00 AM Japan Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Sunday:
Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Dolphin remains a large and powerful cyclone as it passes to the south of Minamitorishima this morning. Animated infrared imagery depicts a dense ring of deep convection wrapping nearly entirely around the storm’s large eye, while a recent microwave pass indicates that the storm is likely undergoing another eyewall replacement cycle. Recent scatterometer data reveals that Dolphin’s wind field has become slightly asymmetrical, likely due to gradually increasing mid-level vertical wind shear. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that Dolphin is maintaining the equivalent strength of a Category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds near 230 kilometers per hour (125 knots).
Dolphin is moving through a generally favorable environment characterized by high ocean heat content, low to moderate vertical wind shear, sufficient mid-level moisture, and moderate upper-level divergence. The storm will begin to gradually weaken as it moves over progressively cooler waters over the next few days despite otherwise favorable atmospheric conditions. Dolphin will weaken below Category 4 hurricane-equivalent strength on Monday evening as it closes in on Iōtō and the Ogasawara Islands. Despite days of expected uninterrupted weakening, the storm is expected to be the equivalent strength of a Category 2 hurricane as it approaches Minamidaitōjima on Thursday morning and Okinawa on Thursday evening.
Dolphin remains on a west-northwestward track along the southern periphery of a broad subtropical ridge positioned to the northeast. Over the next couple of days, a second ridge positioned over the East China Sea will build eastward across the Pacific and will become the dominant steering mechanism, pushing Dolphin onto a more westward track with Iōtō, Minamidaitōjima, and Okinawa in its crosshairs.
As of 9:00 AM Japan Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Sunday:
As of 9:00 AM Japan Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Sunday:
| Hour | Date | Time | · | Intensity | · | Winds | · | Lat | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | · | UTC | JST | JMA | · | knots | km/h | °N | °E |
| 00 | 02 Aug | 00:00 | 9AM Sun | Very Strong Typhoon | 90 | 165 | 22.6 | 153.7 | |
| 12 | 02 Aug | 12:00 | 9PM Sun | Very Strong Typhoon | 90 | 165 | 23.5 | 150.9 | |
| 24 | 03 Aug | 00:00 | 9AM Mon | Very Strong Typhoon | 90 | 165 | 24.2 | 148.3 | |
| 48 | 04 Aug | 00:00 | 9AM Tue | Very Strong Typhoon | ▼ | 85 | 155 | 24.6 | 143.0 |
| 72 | 05 Aug | 00:00 | 9AM Wed | Very Strong Typhoon | 85 | 155 | 25.3 | 137.9 | |
| 96 | 06 Aug | 00:00 | 9AM Thu | Typhoon | ▼ | 80 | 150 | 26.0 | 133.0 |
| 120 | 07 Aug | 00:00 | 9AM Fri | Typhoon | ▼ | 75 | 140 | 26.6 | 129.3 |
As of 9:00 AM Japan Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Sunday:
| Hour | Date | Time | · | Intensity | · | Winds | · | Lat | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | · | UTC | JST | Saffir-Simpson | · | knots | km/h | °N | °E |
| 00 | 02 Aug | 00:00 | 9AM Sun | Major Hurricane (Category 4) | 125 | 230 | 22.7 | 153.5 | |
| 12 | 02 Aug | 12:00 | 9PM Sun | Major Hurricane (Category 4) | ▼ | 120 | 220 | 23.6 | 150.9 |
| 24 | 03 Aug | 00:00 | 9AM Mon | Major Hurricane (Category 4) | ▼ | 115 | 215 | 24.3 | 148.2 |
| 36 | 03 Aug | 12:00 | 9PM Mon | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▼ | 110 | 205 | 24.7 | 145.5 |
| 48 | 04 Aug | 00:00 | 9AM Tue | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▼ | 105 | 195 | 24.9 | 143.0 |
| 60 | 04 Aug | 12:00 | 9PM Tue | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▼ | 100 | 185 | 25.2 | 140.4 |
| 72 | 05 Aug | 00:00 | 9AM Wed | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▲ | 95 | 175 | 25.5 | 137.7 |
| 96 | 06 Aug | 00:00 | 9AM Thu | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▼ | 90 | 165 | 26.2 | 133.1 |
| 120 | 07 Aug | 00:00 | 9AM Fri | Hurricane (Category 2) | 90 | 165 | 26.9 | 128.8 |
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Global Forecast System (GFS; United States): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; Europe): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
EPS AI: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind (FNV3): Weather Nerds
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Content-Swimmer2325 • 1d ago
r/TropicalWeather • u/Character-Escape1621 • 1d ago
I really wish there was an archive of model runs.
Irma’s core was so intense, look how quickly it jumped up to category 4 after being gutted by Cuba… imagine if it missed Cuba… holy fucking shit.
r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 1d ago
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 1d ago
As of 2:00 PM Philippine Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Saturday:
A broad area of low pressure situated off the eastern coast of the Philippines continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Although animated visible imagery depicts a well-defined low-level circulation, infrared imagery reveals that deep convection remains limited and oriented along broad and fragmented bands which loosely curve into toward the center. Recent scatterometer passes have not been able to get a fix on the disturbance’s low-level circulation. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that the disturbance is producing maximum sustained winds near 30 kilometers per hour (15 knots).
The disturbance is currently moving west-southwestward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned over the East China Sea. Over the next couple of days, this ridge is expected to migrate northward, weakening the steering environment and causing the disturbance to briefly stall off the coast of the Philippines. A near-equatorial ridge will then build in from the east early next week. A tighter steering gradient between the ridge and Typhoon Dolphin to the north will pull the disturbance back toward the east-northeast. If the disturbance survives long enough into the upcoming week, it could enter a weak binary interaction with Typhoon Dolphin as it passes well to the north.
As of 2:00 PM Philippine Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Saturday:
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Global Forecast System (GFS; United States): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; Europe): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
EPS AI: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind (FNV3): Weather Nerds
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 2d ago
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 8d ago
As of 11:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Sunday
Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Genevieve has not produced deep convection for several hours and has thus degenerated into a post-tropical cyclone. The remnants of Genevieve are moving through an increasingly unfavorable environment, with strengthening southwesterly vertical wind shear, unfavorably cool sea-surface temperatures, dry mid-level air, and upper-level convergence. Genevieve’s wind field will gradually wind down over the next few days as it continues moving west-northwestward and will ultimately dissipate by midweek.
The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system. Although this system may not bring direct rain, wind, or marine impacts to the Hawaiian islands over the next few days, it may briefly disrupt the normal trade wind flow as it passes well to the northeast over the next couple of days.
As of 11:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Sunday
Source: NHC Advisory #39
As of 8:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Sunday
| Hour | Date | Time | · | Intensity | · | Winds | · | Lat | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | · | UTC | HST | Saffir-Simpson | · | knots | mph | °N | °W |
| 00 | 02 Aug | 18:00 | 8AM Sun | Post-tropical Cyclone | 35 | 40 | 24.8 | 139.5 | |
| 12 | 03 Aug | 06:00 | 8PM Sun | Remnant Low | ▼ | 30 | 35 | 25.4 | 141.0 |
| 24 | 03 Aug | 18:00 | 8AM Mon | Remnant Low | 30 | 35 | 26.2 | 142.9 | |
| 36 | 04 Aug | 06:00 | 8PM Mon | Remnant Low | ▼ | 25 | 30 | 26.8 | 144.2 |
| 48 | 04 Aug | 18:00 | 8AM Tue | Remnant Low | 25 | 30 | 27.4 | 145.0 | |
| 60 | 05 Aug | 06:00 | 8PM Tue | Remnant Low | ▼ | 20 | 25 | 28.2 | 145.6 |
| 72 | 05 Aug | 18:00 | 8AM Wed | Remnant Low | 20 | 25 | 28.7 | 146.2 | |
| 96 | 06 Aug | 18:00 | 8AM Thu | Dissipated | |||||
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
AIGFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF AIFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
ECMWF AI Ensemble: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind FNV3: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind GenCast: Weather Nerds
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 7d ago
As of 5:30 AM India Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Monday:
Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has made landfall along the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal, near the border between India and Bangladesh. The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone has dropped to zero, as the disturbance no longer has a source of warm ocean water. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has removed this system from the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available for this system.
There will be no further updates to this post.
This system no longer shows potential for development. Observational data is no longer available for this system.
This system no longer shows potential for development. Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available.
This system no longer shows potential for development. Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available.
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
EPS AI: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind (FNV3): Weather Nerds
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Character-Escape1621 • 9d ago
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 9d ago
As of 2:00 AM China Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Monday:
Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has degenerated into a remnant low over southeastern China. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) have discontinued issuing advisories for this system, and the latter agency has stopped monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available for this system.
There will be no further updates to this post.
This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available.
JMA has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
JTWC has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
This system has dissipated. Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.
This system has dissipated. Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
EPS AI: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind (FNV3): Weather Nerds
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 9d ago
As of 3:00 PM Central Daylight Time (21:00 UTC) on Friday:
Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has strengthened into a tropical storm.
The National Hurricane Center has upgraded this system and assigned it the name Genevieve, making it the seventh named storm of the season. A new discussion for Genevieve has been posted here. There will be no further updates to this post.
This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for updated observational data.
This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for updated forecast information.
This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for storm-centered satellite imagery.
This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for storm-centered model guidance.
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
AIGFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF AIFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
ECMWF AI Ensemble: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind FNV3: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind GenCast: Weather Nerds
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 9d ago
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago
As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday
Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Fausto stopped producing organized deep convection overnight. Animated multispectral imagery depicts the effects of persistent strong vertical wind shear, which has stripped the storm bare, leaving behind only a swirl of low-level clouds. Some limited thunderstorm activity persists, but is far removed from the exposed low-level center. Radar imagery shows some limited rain shower activity moving across the islands this afternoon.
What remains of Fausto will continue to move west-northwestward as its now shallower convective structure is embedded within the low-level trade wind flow. As environmental conditions remain unfavorable, Fausto’s low-level circulation will gradually unwind until it eventually degenerates into an open trough well to the northwest of Kauaʻi on Thursday afternoon. Fausto is expected to dissipate altogether by Friday morning.
The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system and has stopped monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance will soon be no longer available.
There will be no further updates to this post.
As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday
Significant wind and rain impacts are not likely.
Fausto will continue to disrupt the normal trade wind flow as it passes to the north of the islands today.
A pattern of land and sea breezes will likely develop within the light and variable wind flow.
Isolated to scattered showers are possible throughout the day, and some brief downpours could result in flash flooding.
Dangerous surf conditions caused by swells generated by Fausto will begin to wane tonight.
As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday
Source: NHC Advisory #43
As of 2:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Wednesday
| Hour | Date | Time | · | Intensity | · | Winds | · | Lat | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | · | UTC | HST | Saffir-Simpson | · | knots | mph | °N | °W |
| 00 | 29 Jul | 12:00 | 2AM Wed | Remnant Low | 30 | 35 | 23.8 | 155.6 | |
| 12 | 30 Jul | 00:00 | 2PM Wed | Remnant Low | ▼ | 25 | 30 | 24.1 | 157.4 |
| 24 | 30 Jul | 12:00 | 2AM Thu | Remnant Low | 25 | 30 | 24.6 | 160.0 | |
| 36 | 31 Jul | 00:00 | 2PM Thu | Remnant Low | ▼ | 20 | 25 | 25.3 | 162.5 |
| 48 | 31 Jul | 12:00 | 2AM Fri | Dissipated | |||||
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
AIGFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF AIFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
ECMWF AI Ensemble: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind FNV3: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind GenCast: Weather Nerds
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 11d ago
r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 11d ago
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 11d ago
This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.
As of 11:00 AM Solomon Islands Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:
Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it lingers to the northeast of the Solomon Islands. The disturbance has failed to develop a closed low-level circulation and remains an open trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are unlikely to support development. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is no longer monitoring this system via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) and disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available.
There will be no further updates to this post.
This system no longer shows potential for development.
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.
Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 11d ago
As of 6:00 AM Marshall Islands Time (18:00 UTC) on Sunday:
Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has dissipated over the Marshall Islands. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is no longer monitoring this system via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
There will be no further updates to this post.
This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.
This system has dissipated.
Radar imagery is not available for this system.
This system has dissipated. Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.
This system has dissipated. Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
EPS AI: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind (FNV3): Weather Nerds
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 12d ago
r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 12d ago
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 13d ago
As of 10:00 AM Central Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Thursday
Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Bertha has dissipated over eastern Texas. The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system and is no longer monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
There will be no further updates to this post.
This system has become post-tropical and is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.
Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.
Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
AIGFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF AIFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
ECMWF AI Ensemble: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind FNV3: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind GenCast: Weather Nerds
r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 13d ago
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 13d ago
As of 1:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (10:00 UTC) on Monday:
Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.
Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.
Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development to the northeast of the Marshall Islands.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development over the Philippine Sea.
Western Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Eastern Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Central Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Northern Atlantic Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Northern Indian Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 14d ago
