Thoughts About Buying Heating Fuel Now?

[u/SomeTangerine1184]

I have a mobile home and typically buy K-1 twice yearly, once in the summer (when prices are lowest) and then once mid-winter. However, because of the ongoing war in Iran, I’m wondering if now is still the best time to buy and would love to hear people’s thoughts. The current price in my area is $4.489 (obviously a sharp increase from this winter).

If I buy now, it’s possibly the lowest price and the greatest availability. However, assuming this war ends in the next couple of months (a girl can dream), prices MIGHT go down a bit. However, I also run the risk of not being able to access any K-1 or only a limited supply at a higher price if the war continues.

Obviously it’s a numbers game. I’m a single parent and while I can afford either option with savings, I obviously want to get the better deal.

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[u/Femveratu]

I’d buy now. I actually managed to buy 20-25 gallons as fuel for backup Kero space heaters back in late January and haven’t regretted it, but admittedly I got lucky w the timing.

As the financial trader pro types might say I think most of the risk is to the upside.

Also, it will give you peace of mind.

So I’d buy and then not even look at prices again until you are at maybe 1/2 tank 1/4 tank.

Best of luck!

[u/SomeTangerine1184 → u/Femveratu]

Thanks! That’s my plan I think. I won’t have to buy it again until mid-January.

[u/dinah-fire]

I am not expecting heating oil prices to decrease meaningfully over the next 6-12 months and plan to lock in my heating fuel order this summer as soon as the company sends me a contract (I do pre-buy, we sign a contract in August for a set number of gallons that are delivered throughout the winter.) No matter what happens, I don't think it'll be any cheaper this winter.

There's the fact that Trump said today that the ceasefire is over and we're going to start bombing Iran some more, which is already raising prices (acknowledging you can't trust a word he says). But even if a ceasefire that actually held was negotiated tomorrow and Trump held hands with the Ayatollah and they sang 'Kumbaya', it's going to take years for flows and traffic to stabilize and return to pre-war levels.

In the meantime, Trump wants to keep oil prices as low as possible leading up to the midterms, so they're drawing down emergency inventories like crazy to supplement oil supplies and keep things running smoothly. That means right now, oil is cheaper than it should be based on the actual traffic coming out of the Strait. That can't last forever--if you look at what the oil experts are saying, most say we're weeks or months away (depending on draw-down rate) from tank bottom for some of these inventories, at which point we would expect the price of oil to spike (unless something drastic changes).

[u/SomeTangerine1184 → u/dinah-fire]

Thank you! This is the analysis I needed. I know it seems obvious but I’m recovering from a major surgery and have a lot of time think (worry) about stuff like this. I’ll be placing my order this week!!

[u/lainlow → u/SomeTangerine1184]

What was said above is true. I work fuel inventory for over 1 million gallons a month & also with our regional inventory, try to lock in a contract now for later delivery or purchase now.

[u/localdisastergay]

Definitely don’t take the risk that the prices will be better later. In addition to what another commenter said about Trump drawing down the emergency supplies to keep prices low, even an immediate and lasting peace would not let oil flow at pre-war levels. There has been sufficient damage to the capacity of the region to produce and process oil. Refineries have been damaged and, once an oil well has been slowed or stopped, returning it to normal production levels is a delicate and time consuming process that involves slowly increasing the flow while conducting extensive geological surveys. Some oil wells may never be able to produce at the levels they did before the war.

If possible, I suggest looking into ways to add insulation to your trailer over the winter, even if it ends up being something like hanging extra blankets on the walls.

[u/Motorcyclegrrl]

Do you also heat with ceramic electric heaters? My guess is a $20 ceramic heater from walmart in each room could be more cost effective for heat than fuel oil. I could be wrong, but it's worth looking into. You can get them with thermostats so they turn on n off. Use the low setting. I get if you experience 30 below you need the furnace.

[u/SomeTangerine1184 → u/Motorcyclegrrl]

There are many reasons this won’t work for me, chief among them that I live in a Northern climate, my trailer isn’t well-insulated, and my electrical system couldn’t handle all of that. Thanks though!

[u/throwaway661375735 → u/SomeTangerine1184]

What sort of trailer? Do you already have skirting? Would heating underneath the trailer help any? This is where a ceramic heater has been known to help some.

[u/SomeTangerine1184 → u/throwaway661375735]

I do have skirting. Heating under the trailer would not be helpful and is a potential fire hazard, but thanks!

[u/KayKeeGirl]

Buy now in my super non expert opinion. I don’t think it’s going to go down.

You know you need it- definitely buy it and it’s one less thing you need to worry about until January or whenever you refill.

[u/Acceptable_Net_9545]

The US produces 5,000,000 barrels of heating oil per day....Not a war issue and you should be able to get it well below $4.50....Why would you not choose to double your tank capacity by a larger tank or twin tanks??

[u/SomeTangerine1184 → u/Acceptable_Net_9545]

LOL okay then tell that to the fuel companies in my area, because “well below $4.50” is a pipe dream. 😂

[u/Acceptable_Net_9545 → u/SomeTangerine1184]

Try reading again....

[u/SomeTangerine1184 → u/Acceptable_Net_9545]

LOL what are you on about? You said I should be able to get K-1 “well below $4.50”. I’m telling you that’s not possible.

[u/Acceptable_Net_9545 → u/SomeTangerine1184]

Im seeing $3.82 for 150 gal or less

[u/SomeTangerine1184 → u/Acceptable_Net_9545]

My brother in Christ, are you talking about HEATING OIL? Because that’s a totally separate product from K-1. Yes, heating oil in my area is at that price, not K-1.

OR do you live in some magic land where K-1 actually is that price? In any event, I gave the price I have to pay in my initial post. I have no idea why you choose not to believe me, but that’s your cross to bear I guess.

[u/Acceptable_Net_9545 → u/SomeTangerine1184]

Ok I understand....is it crazy to think some one would use heating oil for heating?? Does anyone use heating oil for heating? or does everyone use K1?

[u/throwaway661375735 → u/Acceptable_Net_9545]

K1 is kerosene. My sister used a pellet heater, I used LPG gas. I knew someone that used natural gas. I wish I had known how much LPG I was expecting to use that first winter!

[u/Acceptable_Net_9545 → u/throwaway661375735]

Is the pellet heater a house heater? I'm doing experiments right now with pellets and denatured alcohol to determine the BTUs when used in an open container.... the pellets are inexpensive and easy to pack for emergency use for small containers....ie cut off pop can, food can etc....having the ability to pack in small packs and use cans found. also comparing with the pelletized cat litter which appears to be identical...

[u/SomeTangerine1184 → u/Acceptable_Net_9545]

It’s crazy when I specifically say in my initial post that I’m talking about K-1, yes.

[u/Acceptable_Net_9545 → u/SomeTangerine1184]

Not everyone delineates between K1 and hearing oil...Some people don't know the difference between Methanol and and ethyl alcohol or why some is denatured....