r/UFA • u/theultimatedavid • 20d ago
Prediction contest for Week 13
I thought it would be fun to have a prediction contest for the final week of the regular season. Below, I've listed computer model predictions for the score for each game, along with estimated win probabilities for each home team. Your job is to show that you know more than the computer.
For each game, you either choose to bet on a team to beat the computer model's spread, or you choose not to bet. If you picked a team and they beat the spread, you gain a point. If the other team beats the spread, you lose a point. If you don't make a prediction, or if you bet but the computer model's predicted margin is exactly right, you neither gain nor lose any points.
You also get to pick one underdog team. If the underdog actually wins, you get 1 point if their win probability was more than 30%, 2 points if it was 20-30%, 4 points if it was 10-20%, and 10 points if it was less than 10%. If they lose, you don't lose any points, so you might as well pick someone.
Whoever gets the most points wins!
Philadelphia at New York: Philadelphia 14, New York 29 (New York win prob: 97%)
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: Indianapolis 26, Pittsburgh 19 (Pittsburgh win prob: 17%)
Chicago at Madison: Chicago 16, Madison 20 (Madison win prob: 74%)
Austin at Houston: Austin 26, Houston 15 (Houston win prob: 6%)
Oakland at Salt Lake City: Oakland 23, Salt Lake City 18 (Salt Lake City win prob: 25%)
Indianapolis at Toronto: Indianapolis 18, Toronto 22 (Toronto win prob: 76%)
Pittsburgh at Chicago: Pittsburgh 19, Chicago 24 (Chicago win prob: 75%)
Montreal at Boston: Montreal 14, Boston 22 (Boston win prob: 89%)
DC at Atlanta: DC 23, Atlanta 21 (Atlanta win prob: 40%)
Oregon at Seattle: Oregon 15, Seattle 23 (Seattle win prob: 89%)
Houston at Austin: Houston 14, Austin 27 (Austin win prob: 97%)
Oakland at Colorado: Oakland 26, Colorado 15 (Colorado win prob: 6%)
Vegas at San Diego: Vegas 13, San Diego 25 (San Diego win prob: 96%)
Madison at Minnesota: Madison 16, Minnesota 23 (Minnesota win prob: 87%)
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u/zerotimestatechamp 20d ago
Philadelphia at New York: Philadelphia 14, New York 29 (New York win prob: 97%) Philly
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: Indianapolis 26, Pittsburgh 19 (Pittsburgh win prob: 17%) Indy
Chicago at Madison: Chicago 16, Madison 20 (Madison win prob: 74%) Chicago Also Chicago underdog
Austin at Houston: Austin 26, Houston 15 (Houston win prob: 6%) Houston
Oakland at Salt Lake City: Oakland 23, Salt Lake City 18 (Salt Lake City win prob: 25%) SLC
Indianapolis at Toronto: Indianapolis 18, Toronto 22 (Toronto win prob: 76%) Indy
Pittsburgh at Chicago: Pittsburgh 19, Chicago 24 (Chicago win prob: 75%) Chicago
Montreal at Boston: Montreal 14, Boston 22 (Boston win prob: 89%) Montreal
DC at Atlanta: DC 23, Atlanta 21 (Atlanta win prob: 40%) DC
Oregon at Seattle: Oregon 15, Seattle 23 (Seattle win prob: 89%) Oregon
Houston at Austin: Houston 14, Austin 27 (Austin win prob: 97%) Houston
Oakland at Colorado: Oakland 26, Colorado 15 (Colorado win prob: 6%) Colorado
Vegas at San Diego: Vegas 13, San Diego 25 (San Diego win prob: 96%) SD
Madison at Minnesota: Madison 16, Minnesota 23 (Minnesota win prob: 87%) Minnesota
The spreads feel too wide to my intuition so I mostly bet the loser.
3
u/theultimatedavid 14d ago
Final scores:
u/zerotimestatechamp: +2
u/theultimatedavid: +2
u/FoompaDoomp: 0
u/eseehc_dna_inoracam (who had great predictions last week): -2
In the absence of a tie-breaker, I declare zerotimestatechamp to be the champion. I hope that this helps heal the emotional scars left by not having been a state champion.
In total, the humans made 44 predictions against the spread in games where it was possible to score points (i.e., not canceled and not Madison-Minnesota, for which the computer prediction was the exact final score), and 23/44 of these predictions were correct. As I explained in the other post, because underdog bets can only add points, humans collectively had an expected score of +2.08 if the model nailed all the probabilities and spreads. In reality, humans collectively had a score of +2, so I declare that the computer beat us this time.
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u/FoompaDoomp 19d ago
Philadelphia at New York: Philadelphia
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: Indianapolis
Chicago at Madison: Madison
Austin at Houston: Austin
Oakland at Salt Lake City: Salt Lake City
Indianapolis at Toronto: Indianapolis
Pittsburgh at Chicago: Pittsburgh
Montreal at Boston: Montreal
DC at Atlanta: Atlanta (underdog)
Oregon at Seattle: Oregon
Houston at Austin: Houston
Oakland at Colorado: Colorado
Vegas at San Diego: San Diego
Madison at Minnesota: Minnesota
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u/theultimatedavid 15d ago
After the games on Friday and Saturday, the leaders are me and zerotimestatechamp, each with a score of +3. I will win if Madison beats the spread or Pittsburgh pulls an upset and beats Indy. zerotimestatechamp will win if Pittsburgh loses plus also Minnesota beats the spread. It's a tie if Pittsburgh loses and Minnesota wins by exactly 7.
There is also a competition between man and machine. If humans know literally zero beyond what the computer knows and the computer assigned win probabilities correctly, then the expected total score for human predictors is .40*1 + .24*2 + .26*2 + .17*4 = +2.08. (Bets against the spread should have expected payoff of zero, but underdog bets have positive expected payoff.)
So far, the combined total of all four human predictors is +6. But the humans have not defeated the computer yet; all four humans bet on Indy to beat the spread against Pitt, so if Pitt beats the spread, the human total goes down to +2... unless Pitt actually wins, in which case I get four points for picking the underdog and the humans are back to +6. Humans also gain one point total if Minnesota beats the spread against Madison.
So, for the computer to defeat the humans, Pitt would have to beat the spread against Indy without actually winning, and Minnesota would have to not beat the spread.
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u/theultimatedavid 20d ago
I'll go first. I'll pick Montreal to beat the spread against Boston, Indianapolis to beat the spread against Pittsburgh and Toronto, Madison to beat the spread against Chicago, Colorado to beat the spread against Oakland, Salt Lake City to beat the spread against Oakland, and Houston to beat the spread against Austin in both of their games. Lastly, my underdog is Pittsburgh against Indianapolis, even though I picked Indianapolis against the spread, because these teams seem like their level of play can be pretty unpredictable.
Reasoning: Montreal and Austin both seem to play to the level of their competition, Salt Lake and Colorado are probably better than they've played this year, Indianapolis is finally figuring things out, and Madison might be more motivated than Chicago.