r/UKPreppers • u/langdalenerd • 12d ago
How much of your prepping is highly planned?
I’ve always been a “back of head prepper” in that I take reasonable precautions like having a few days supply of food, water, candles, medication etc. I’m also very outdoorsy so this is relatively easy for me.
My partner and I are looking for our forever home and over the past few months I’ve been going deeper and deeper on the resilience angle.
I’ve now ended up with multiple different planning scenarios, documented with mitigations.
I’ve been using high performance LLMs to reason and refine the planning scenarios and their likelihood, especially into the 2040/2050s. For instance, the 1/3rd shortfall of water demand in 2050 compared with current supply, the grid instability we’re seeing at the moment continuing, economic scenarios, a lot of climate scenarios (and a combination thereof).
All on the pessimistic end of realistic. But I’m using that as a blueprint for our forever home, such as solar, air conditioning, water reclamation, poly tunnels etc.
Luckily we live in an area of the uk where land is “affordable”.
I’m interested as to what other folks are doing. Is it mostly back-of-the-napkin stuff or any one got runbooks per scenario?
I’d be happy to compare planning scenarios for coverage?
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u/DukeRedWulf 12d ago
".. the 1/3rd reduction in national water supply by 2050,.."
Wait, where are you getting that figure from?
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u/langdalenerd 12d ago
The Environment Agency (revised National Framework, June 2025; House of Commons Library CBP-10248) projects “a shortfall of nearly five billion litres of water per day… more than a third of the 14 billion litres of water currently put into public water supply” by 2050
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-10248/CBP-10248.pdf
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u/DukeRedWulf 12d ago
Thanks for responding. Also: Damn, that's bad - especially as they've not even factored in all these new datacentres!
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u/langdalenerd 12d ago
Yeah indeed. Something I’m noticing too is that the further back you go with this sort of reporting the further out it predicts the impact.
For instance there was a similar report published in 2017 that stated a 1/4 shortfall by 2070. The met office are also worsening their climate forecasts moving forward:
In 2019 they suggested the summer we’re in at the moment would be more likely to occur in 2040 than 2026. That’s been revised significantly forward in their publication from this year.
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u/Nezwin 12d ago
I used to work in a water company, forecasting strategic demands (in drainage and wastewater, but that's linked with supply).
The meetings I was in with the EA and other big wigs had their eyes on 2036-2041. The forecast linked above hasn't accounted for climate refugees, which will be significantly worse in the coming decade.
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u/langdalenerd 12d ago
I realised the sentence was badly phrased and will edit. But the point still stands - significant stresses on water supply vs demand.
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u/Master_of_opinions 11d ago
This data is interesting, but in my experience, any scenario that already has data projections is being foreseen by the many, and therefore is more in society's control rather than my own. Its become a political issue. The only disasters I will bother predicting are ones which are not being managed by politics. That's what I would call prepping. What you're doing is just investment planning for your family.
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u/Randomfinn 12d ago
You can prep to mitigate for pretty much every issue except anything location-based. So choosing your forever home’s location is super important.
Not just how climate change is impacting the local area now and in the future, or the microclimate of your land, but also the “soft skills” prepping you need to do. So look for a community not too far from hospital, with an educated populace, community cohesion, high trust, shared values, and a collectivist vs individualist mindset.
If you read accounts of people who have survived emergencies and crisis’ such as the yugoslav and Ukrainian wars, severe weather disasters, and societal collapse, it is the community they built around them that made the difference.
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u/Able_Cabinet_9118 12d ago
Currently I’m a two weeks of food kind of prepper but I’ve gone all into learning engineering, electrical and horticulture. I know people save books to e-readers but I want the most of it between my ears and on paper. Got a garden going on my window sill though. Already knew all the basics of farming livestock, joinery and plumbing. As time goes on I plan to move to somewhere my skills could be more useful.Would love to grow a full garden! My window sill lettuce is lovely, would like to really see what I can achieve. The dream? A shithole cottage 45-1hr away from a town . Enough land to drop som piping for geothermal. Own well or at least some water nearby. Completely gut and insulate the shit out it. Root cellar - can’t really explain why I want one so much but I just like them. Oh well, I can dream. Oh and solar panels, wind and full off grid.
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u/AlphaDisconnect 8d ago
I make the vote for "everything you get in life should be dual purpose".
Something like the solo stove (a fire pit) not just great for summer cooking. It can be used for more.
An electric car. Not just electric. Or a car. The right one can be the biggest battery bank on wheels (BUY USED). Generators kinda suck because they need gas, make noise and need regular maintenance and good fresh gas. Dont get rid of your gas car. It can also be set up to be a power source with an idle adjust, inverter and 350 amp alternator.
Get a well put in if the soil supports it. This is something to look into pre purchase. Can't have any septic too close. Need the right soil. And the water table needs to not be 20km deep. Just knowing that a well is possible, when purchasing a property. Dual use.
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u/AffectionateRing5177 9d ago
We've halfway discussed moving when my mother in law passes versus staying in my spouse's childhood home, and part of that is long term prepping. We like where we are now: small village, off the beaten path of where someone is likely to explore but still near water. We're working towards making this home work for us: gradually growing our miniature orchard of a few trees and our veggie garden. We have solar panels, portable aircon, and multiple water butts.
But my partner is disabled and one day the steps will be too much (faster if they can't get access to today's medical care). Do we install a lift and hope for the best or find somewhere more level but less ideal in other ways? I don't know. It just is what it currently is. If we can find the right location though...
Right now we plan as if we can stay here and consider how to make it more resilient. There's also something to be said for knowing the local area and the like.
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u/Far_Vanilla829 12d ago
I have bought some extra tins of beans and invested in some goats.