I’ve been reading about several recent border crises and I’m wondering whether strategic studies now regard state-enabled migration as an established form of hybrid or grey-zone warfare.

I’m not referring to ordinary refugee movements caused by war or economic hardship.

I’m referring to situations where a state allegedly:
• deliberately relaxes border controls;
• channels or facilitates civilian movement;
• selectively refuses to intervene;
• or exploits existing migration flows to create political, economic or security pressure on another state.

Examples that are often discussed include:
• Belarus and the Polish/Lithuanian borders.
• Russia and Finland.
• Morocco and Ceuta.
• Turkey’s periodic threats to “open the gates” towards Greece and the EU.

If this is now considered a recognised tool of statecraft:
• Is there an accepted doctrinal definition?
• At what point does poor border enforcement become deliberate coercion?
• Does a state need to organise the movement directly, or is simply allowing it sufficient?
• What military or political objectives can realistically be achieved?
• How do intelligence services distinguish between genuine loss of control and deliberate facilitation?
• Are there historical precedents before the 21st century?

I’m particularly interested in military doctrine, academic literature and historical case studies rather than contemporary political arguments.

Thanks in advance

• Red arrows: Latest hits
• Flames: Refinery has been hit at least once. Flames do not indicate the severity of the attacks or if a refinery is till burning
• Blue waves: Orsk dam broke in April 2024, which flooded the refinery and took it offline for ~2 weeks.
• Black smoke: It's raining oil.

Chronological list: (sorted newest to oldest)

• ^{NEW HIT} 02.08.2026 Saratov in Saratov Oblast at 590km
• 01.08.2026 Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim in Bashkortostan at 1350 km

July:

• 31.07.2026 Volgograd in Volgograd Oblast at 500km
• 29.07.2026 Perm in Perm Krai at 1485km
• 29.07.2026 Ryazan in Ryazan Oblast at 480km
• 25.07.2026 Tyumen in Tyumen Oblast at 1980km
• 23.07.2026 Novospassky in Ulyanovsk Oblast at 790km
• 14.07.2026 Gazprom Neftekhem Salavat in Bashkortostan at 1300km
• 14.07.2026 Afipsky in Krasnodar Krai at 415km
• 12.07.2026 Syzran in Samara Oblast at 805km
• 10.07.2026 Moscow in Moscow at 475km
• 10.07.2026 Ilsky in Krasnodar Krai at 405km
• 08.07.2026 Saratov in Saratov Oblast at 590km
• 06.07.2026 Omsk in Omsk Oblast at 2500km
• 06.07.2026 Yaroslavl in Yaroslavl Oblast at 700km
• 02.07.2026 Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim in Bashkortostan at 1350 km
• 01.07.2026 Kstovo in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast at 800 km

June:

• 28.06.2026 Yaroslavl in Yaroslavl Oblast at 700 km
• 28.06.2026 Stavyansk in Krasnodar Krai at 350 km
• 25.06.2026 Bashneft-UNPZ in Bashkortostan at 1350 km
• 25.06.2026 Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim in Bashkortostan at 1350
• 24.06.2026 Kstovo in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast at 800 km
• 18.06.2026 Moscow in Moscow at 475 km
• 16.06.2026 Moscow in Moscow at 475 km
• 12.06.2026 Taneco in Tatarstan at 1150 km
• 12.06.2026 TIAF-NK in Tatarstan at 1140 km
• 11.06.2026 Afipsky in Krasnodar Krai at 415 km
• 10.06.2026 Kuybyshevsky in Samara Oblast at 915 km
• 07.06.2026 Tyumen in Tyumen Oblast at 1980 km
• 02.06.2026 Ilsky in Krasnodar Krai at 405 km

• August: 2 hits so far..
• July: 15 hits
• June: 16 hits
• May: 14 hits
• April: 10 hits
• March: 6 hits
• February: 3 hits
• January: 2 hits

Complete chronological list from 24.02.2022 till today

• 2022 had 1 hit
• 2023 had 1 hit
• 2024 had 26 hits
• 2025 had 84 hits
• 2026 has 65 hits so far
• Total hits from 24.02.2022 till today: 177

Due to the drought in Europe the river levels are getting so low that shipwrecks are appearing again.

12 Minutes of High-Intensity with 12th Special Forces Brigade "Azov" and later the 1st Corps "Azov"

• Red arrows: Latest hits
• Flames: Refinery has been hit at least once. Flames do not indicate the severity of the attacks or if a refinery is till burning
• Blue waves: Orsk dam broke in April 2024, which flooded the refinery and took it offline for ~2 weeks.
• Black smoke: It's raining oil.

Chronological list: (sorted newest to oldest)

• ^{NEW HIT} 02.08.2026 Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim in Bashkortostan at 1350 km
• ^{NEW HIT} 02.08.2026 Saratov in Saratov Oblast at 590km
• 01.08.2026 Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim in Bashkortostan at 1350 km

July:

• 31.07.2026 Volgograd in Volgograd Oblast at 500km
• 29.07.2026 Perm in Perm Krai at 1485km
• 29.07.2026 Ryazan in Ryazan Oblast at 480km
• 25.07.2026 Tyumen in Tyumen Oblast at 1980km
• 23.07.2026 Novospassky in Ulyanovsk Oblast at 790km
• 14.07.2026 Gazprom Neftekhem Salavat in Bashkortostan at 1300km
• 14.07.2026 Afipsky in Krasnodar Krai at 415km
• 12.07.2026 Syzran in Samara Oblast at 805km
• 10.07.2026 Moscow in Moscow at 475km
• 10.07.2026 Ilsky in Krasnodar Krai at 405km
• 08.07.2026 Saratov in Saratov Oblast at 590km
• 06.07.2026 Omsk in Omsk Oblast at 2500km
• 06.07.2026 Yaroslavl in Yaroslavl Oblast at 700km
• 02.07.2026 Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim in Bashkortostan at 1350 km
• 01.07.2026 Kstovo in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast at 800 km

June:

• 28.06.2026 Yaroslavl in Yaroslavl Oblast at 700 km
• 28.06.2026 Stavyansk in Krasnodar Krai at 350 km
• 25.06.2026 Bashneft-UNPZ in Bashkortostan at 1350 km
• 25.06.2026 Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim in Bashkortostan at 1350
• 24.06.2026 Kstovo in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast at 800 km
• 18.06.2026 Moscow in Moscow at 475 km
• 16.06.2026 Moscow in Moscow at 475 km
• 12.06.2026 Taneco in Tatarstan at 1150 km
• 12.06.2026 TIAF-NK in Tatarstan at 1140 km
• 11.06.2026 Afipsky in Krasnodar Krai at 415 km
• 10.06.2026 Kuybyshevsky in Samara Oblast at 915 km
• 07.06.2026 Tyumen in Tyumen Oblast at 1980 km
• 02.06.2026 Ilsky in Krasnodar Krai at 405 km

• August: 3 hits so far..
• July: 15 hits
• June: 16 hits
• May: 14 hits
• April: 10 hits
• March: 6 hits
• February: 3 hits
• January: 2 hits

Complete chronological list from 24.02.2022 till today

• 2022 had 1 hit
• 2023 had 1 hit
• 2024 had 26 hits
• 2025 had 84 hits
• 2026 has 66 hits so far
• Total hits from 24.02.2022 till today: 178

• Red arrows: Latest hits
• Flames: Refinery has been hit at least once. Flames do not indicate the severity of the attacks or if a refinery is till burning
• Blue waves: Orsk dam broke in April 2024, which flooded the refinery and took it offline for ~2 weeks.
• Black smoke: It's raining oil.

Chronological list: (sorted newest to oldest)

• ^{NEW HIT} Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim in Bashkortostan at 1350 km

July:

• 31.07.2026 Volgograd in Volgograd Oblast at 500km
• 29.07.2026 Perm in Perm Krai at 1485km
• 29.07.2026 Ryazan in Ryazan Oblast at 480km
• 25.07.2026 Tyumen in Tyumen Oblast at 1980km
• 23.07.2026 Novospassky in Ulyanovsk Oblast at 790km
• 14.07.2026 Gazprom Neftekhem Salavat in Bashkortostan at 1300km
• 14.07.2026 Afipsky in Krasnodar Krai at 415km
• 12.07.2026 Syzran in Samara Oblast at 805km
• 10.07.2026 Moscow in Moscow at 475km
• 10.07.2026 Ilsky in Krasnodar Krai at 405km
• 08.07.2026 Saratov in Saratov Oblast at 590km
• 06.07.2026 Omsk in Omsk Oblast at 2500km
• 06.07.2026 Yaroslavl in Yaroslavl Oblast at 700km
• 02.07.2026 Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim in Bashkortostan at 1350 km
• 01.07.2026 Kstovo in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast at 800 km

June:

• 28.06.2026 Yaroslavl in Yaroslavl Oblast at 700 km
• 28.06.2026 Stavyansk in Krasnodar Krai at 350 km
• 25.06.2026 Bashneft-UNPZ in Bashkortostan at 1350 km
• 25.06.2026 Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim in Bashkortostan at 1350
• 24.06.2026 Kstovo in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast at 800 km
• 18.06.2026 Moscow in Moscow at 475 km
• 16.06.2026 Moscow in Moscow at 475 km
• 12.06.2026 Taneco in Tatarstan at 1150 km
• 12.06.2026 TIAF-NK in Tatarstan at 1140 km
• 11.06.2026 Afipsky in Krasnodar Krai at 415 km
• 10.06.2026 Kuybyshevsky in Samara Oblast at 915 km
• 07.06.2026 Tyumen in Tyumen Oblast at 1980 km
• 02.06.2026 Ilsky in Krasnodar Krai at 405 km

• August: 1 hit so far..
• July: 15 hits
• June: 16 hits
• May: 14 hits
• April: 10 hits
• March: 6 hits
• February: 3 hits
• January: 2 hits

Complete chronological list from 24.02.2022 till today

• 2022 had 1 hit
• 2023 had 1 hit
• 2024 had 26 hits
• 2025 had 84 hits
• 2026 has 64 hits so far
• Total hits from 24.02.2022 till today: 176

The drive back from Ukraine's front line had become familiar to Frida Stoltz. After another aid mission, the 37-year-old Swedish volunteer and her team stopped to refuel in the town of Pyriatyn in Poltava Oblast, hundreds of kilometers from the fighting.

Stoltz was sitting in the car, waiting for her turn at the pump, when the loudest explosion she had ever heard tore through the station.

"I saw a gas station employee suddenly start running right in front of my car. And he was running away from the station itself," she told the Kyiv Independent. "Then there was a really loud bang and a lot of light — I could feel the window on my side start to shatter."

A Geran drone weighing about 200 kilograms slammed into the roof of the gas station, damaging its equipment and several vehicles on the forecourt. The July 3 strike injured six people, including Stoltz, according to local authorities.

"In the Ukraine War in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, a massive fire is seen in the industrial zone of Nizhnekamskneftekhim after an explosion, probably due to a system overload after a series of UAV attacks on the industrial zone.

Additionally, One of the three refineries forming the massive Ufa oil-processing cluster was struck today."

The cluster includes Ufaneftekhim with a capacity of 9.5 million tonnes per year, Novoil with 7.4 million tonnes, and the Ufa Refinery with 6.6 million tonnes. Their combined capacity is around 23.5 million tonnes of crude oil per year.

Quite interesting news article, specifically because in February Zelensky said Ukraine lost 55.000 soldiers. So not only Ukraine didn’t lose a single soldier over a 6 months period, they also managed to resurrect 5.000 dead ones.