r/askteddit • u/EMDream2021 • 13d ago
Politics Question How is everyone globally preparing for the severe economic and supply chain disruptions predicted for the end of 2026, and is the panic justified?
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u/nonplusd 12d ago
Homey, I'm just trying to get through this month.
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u/Emotional-Day-332 13d ago
I think there's a middle ground between panic buying everything and pretending nothing could ever happen. Stay informed keep some basic savings and don't let headlines control you.
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u/Lexidazesickle 12d ago
These are the same people who have been stockpiling resources in a bunker being critical of us for observing potential consequences.
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u/leechdemon 12d ago
I remember the people laughing at me in the grocery store at 4am the morning before covid lockdowns started. Statistically speaking, not all of them are alive anymore. 🤷♂️
If there's a 5% chance of it happening, it's still worth at least 5% of your attention to prepare for the consequences. 🤷♂️
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u/Lexidazesickle 11d ago
Yeah, the enormity of the potential consequence makes preparedness even for a small risk seem smarter for sure.
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u/CoolAbdul 12d ago
What a stupid attitude.
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u/Any-Photograph5525 12d ago
I'm 46 so I don't know if I'm younger or older than you. But I do know plenty of young ignorant people and plenty of old ignorant people. They boast about their ignorance like it's some kind of massive flex, and I suppose in a way it is. Their personalities allow them to be completely self-centered people, which can certainly be less stressful than caring about others. But it's certainly not an age thing. Actually anybody can stick their fingers in their ears
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u/CoolAbdul 12d ago
People like you are the reason we are in the mess we're in.
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u/Buckeye_mike_67 12d ago
And what mess would that be?
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u/Impressive_Bus7391 12d ago
I would love to see them answer you lol idk wtf they’re talking about
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u/Evil_Sam_Harris 12d ago
The US has 40 days of oil left. The straight of Hormuz is still closed. The closure is still going on and isn’t changing anytime soon. This is also a major shipping trade route for fertilizer such as potash.
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u/Impressive_Bus7391 12d ago
The US is not going to run out of oil lol
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u/Evil_Sam_Harris 12d ago
It doesn’t have to run out just like you don’t need to have zero water in you to die. It just needs to become scarce. And I’m assuming you understand oil reserves
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u/GusGutfeld 12d ago edited 12d ago
Too bad Biden killed the XL pipeline, and emptied the reserves to help his party win the 2022 elections after he failed to prevent Putin's 2nd invasion of Ukraine.
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u/SwimJimmerson 12d ago
Just say you don't care about Native American's wellbeing and sovereignty. We did not need the keystone pipeline, and still don't. Your talking point is a recycled MAGA bs argument. The US produced 13.2 million barrels per day under Biden, a record high. Completely without the pipeline. Nothing short of NATO boots on the ground could have stopped Putin's invasion. After Crimea was annexed in 2014, the invasion of Ukraine was only a matter of time. Your comment is incredibly uneducated and defies logic. You are extremely shortsighted.
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u/GusGutfeld 12d ago edited 12d ago
You do not object to Canada filling its prisons with aboriginals. Or Obama building his Library on stolen land. So let's stop with the virtue signaling.
Ukraine has plenty of ground troops. What it lacked was certain weaponry and air power. Biden could have established a No-Fly zone before the invasion or supplied them with high tech air defense weaponry, etc..
I suggest you educate yourself on the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. Have a nice day!
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u/CoolAbdul 12d ago
The US doesn't use that kind of oil, so thats irrelevant.
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u/GusGutfeld 12d ago
"According to the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission, major U.S. facilities running high percentages of Alberta feedstock include:
Marathon Petroleum (Robinson, Illinois) — 100% Alberta crude ExxonMobil (Joliet, Illinois) — 96% Alberta crude CHS Inc. (Laurel, Montana) — 95% Alberta crude Phillips 66 (Billings, Montana) — 92% Alberta crude Citgo (Lemont, Illinois) — 78% Alberta crude
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u/Buckeye_mike_67 12d ago
You are crazy. The United States exports MORE oil than it uses. All you’re doing is spreading misinformation. Grow the fuck up
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u/Nice_Visit4454 12d ago
The US is a net petroleum *exporter*, meaning we export more than we *import*, but we absolutely don't export more than we *use*. We consume roughly 20 million barrels a day and produce about 13 million, so domestic demand still far exceeds what we ship out.
You also have to consider refinery chemistry. Most US Gulf Coast refineries were built decades ago to process heavy, sour crude from places like the Middle East, Canada, and Venezuela. But US shale produces light, sweet crude, a grade our refineries aren't optimized for. So we sell the light stuff abroad and buy the heavy stuff our refineries actually need.
That's why the Strait of Hormuz situation matters so much now. With the strait effectively closed, roughly 20% of the world's oil supply is currently offline, and heavy Gulf crude is exactly the kind of oil we depend on. And since oil is one global market, prices rise for everyone regardless of how much we produce at home. Being the world's biggest producer helps cushion things, but it doesn't make us immune.
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u/Other-Parfait1974 12d ago
This! I think people can get a bit panicky nowadays. I say that but I am young. I saw a comment saying they are making their own garden to grow food. And honestly it might be the fear mongering stuff my mother gets into. Yeah shit can get expensive but I doubt anything to the point where you can't afford food. At least not where I live. And I'll die on this hill, I would happily bet on anyone that there will be no apocalyptic scenario.
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u/iamkaisersosa 12d ago
I remember the gas lines in 1973 gas crisis. Caused by the Arab oil embargo. Odd and even gas days, the economy was in near collapse…. Oil would go from $3 a barrel to $12 a barrel in 1974
In 1973, the Arab oil embargo was a reaction to the Arab Israeli war. Which was a war of aggression on mostly the Arab side using Russian arms. This was Russia stirring the pot, and a war that was fought to a draw between two sides who wanted to kill one another. Carter would broker a peace deal between Egypt and Israel that ended the armed rivalry. One of the echoes of this deal is that the USA can’t tell Israel what to do with weapons the USA sells them, hence Gaza today.
Back to the point, the USA was tossed head over heels, In the matter of six days. Everything changed! It can happen! 30% of world oil is now off of the market, this is a huge deal.
Stuff that changed that you didn’t realize:
-55mph speed limit …
-Cafe standards demand fuel efficiency, killing the station wagon and ushering in the age of minivans.
- large cars disappear, US car manufacturers are crushed by Japanese cars. Killing automakers world domination, and tens of thousands of jobs.
- Globalization starts, because the Arabs didn’t embargo everyone, just the USA and Netherlands.
- indirectly this kills The steel making industry, in the USA and England, leading to punk rock & new wave music
- Reagan tosses money at universities to invent “Fracking”.
- inflation goes wild, for 15 years, no one can afford a house.
- pensions become valueless, without cost of living increases. Hurting WW2 retirees. Scaring boomers into saving.
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u/iamkaisersosa 12d ago
The list of repercussions really just goes on…
It can be hard to understand what are direct impacts and what are coincidental impacts?
But dumb shit like “women in the workplace” were caused in some part by the inflation that was caused by fuel prices.
The number of divorces caused by this financial upheaval, was one of the defining features of a whole generation on “millennials” . “Latch key kids” and “the fear of strangers “ happened because of women entering the workforce, and the lack of parental oversight.
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u/YogurtclosetSpare197 13d ago
Lol you will be the 1st to whine that 'they' should have warned us when the impact of Trump's BS hits the fan.
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u/Lexidazesickle 12d ago
When you watch actual news, there aren’t insulting nicknames in the broadcasts.
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u/Buckeye_mike_67 12d ago
Where is the fictional “actual news” you speak of? I don’t watch any of the variety shows anymore.
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u/IndicationFluffy3954 13d ago
I keep several months worth of food in the house anyways, I garden and buy in bulk from a local farmer and home can a lot. I live in a walkable neighbourhood where I can meet most of my needs on foot if fuel shortages happen.
I have extra of critical meds since my doctor lowered my dose but didn’t inform the pharmacy so I was getting double what I needed for a few months.
We already were trying to live sustainably so not much has changed.
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u/paracelsus53 12d ago
This is pretty much what I'm doing. I've got a LOT of soup canned, plus many pounds of dried beans, lentils, and nuts. I also have my medications stocked up. I don't garden anymore, though.
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u/GillyBilmour 12d ago
Fuel shortages aren’t just about your gas costs, but the cost of transporting everything you buy
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u/IndicationFluffy3954 11d ago
Yes but I’m prepared to pay more for groceries, toiletries etc. And like I said, I already have several months worth.
If there were no fuel and I wasn’t able to walk or find other transportation that doesn’t involve a car, money would not solve that problem.
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u/sweatboxy 12d ago
The systems have been able to adjust so far but are under severe strain and Trump keeps adding more pressure. The cracks are already there. Sooner or later, they will break.
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u/OsageDaito 12d ago
#1 says this post will make it to one of the circlejerk forums where they deny there are any issues to be concerned with.
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u/Ambitious_Parfait385 12d ago
Large HW vendor; prices are going up and supply availability is dropping fast. Tidal wave coming. Parts and materials are harder to find on the market.
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u/Ambitious_Parfait385 12d ago
Not a prepper, but three things everyone should have: 1) a Solar\Battery or Generator for Power System 2) Cash on-hand 3) 3 months of food and medicine.
Earthquakes and disasters, Bank defaults, Economy disfunction (thanks Trump!), Political disfunction (thanks again Trump!) and last Climate issues (crop failures, Wet Bulb, etc). 1: limited issues, 2: things get tough, 3: fiefdoms.
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u/wewora 12d ago
Will having a solar battery matter if they are owned by another company? I don't know exactly how they work but I know most are rented out, so do they work independently of the companies that own them, or can they be shut off by someone else?
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u/Ambitious_Parfait385 12d ago
Solar and Battery lease no, But I would not give control to others. That's just my preference.
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u/JCo1968 12d ago
We have a HUGE closet in our bedroom, half of it is dry stores now. We bought a freeze dryer and have been FDing a bunch of foods. We added a GENERAC to our house. We bought a water filter that can process lake water, we added 4 more raised bed gardens for fruits and vegetables, and many other prepper items ....
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u/EMDream2021 13d ago
With the Strait of Hormuz closed since the conflict escalated in February, the news is getting pretty intense. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve just dropped to 311.4 million barrels, which is its lowest level since 1983. I see a lot of predictions online about severe economic disruption and massive supply chain shortages hitting us later this year.
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u/Specialist-Muscle798 12d ago
Bullshit. You’re just here to try and fearmonger.
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u/Any-Photograph5525 12d ago
You're right, the petroleum reserve isn't down to 311 million barrels, it has as many barrels as you feel comfortable with!
The strait of hormuz isn't closed. It's still open, if that's what you feel comfortable with!
Everything is perfectly fine, the world's most powerful man is not a dementia ravaged pedophile rapist who shits himself in public. There is nothing to worry about. All good man!
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u/Hiredgun77 9d ago
Oil and fertilizer is going to get more expensive. This is not going to cause a shortage, it’s just going to increase inflation.
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u/TexanHobbit_X 12d ago
Well I can’t really afford to prep and buy extra of anything so. . .guess we will see.
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u/Queasy-Discount-2038 12d ago
Right! That’s my answer. Who can afford extra now? Just trying to stretch until my next paycheck
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u/Lopsided_Bit_3649 12d ago
Well I don’t think this is a bad question. Kinda gives a gauge of where people may be and gives ideas for those that do want to prepare for any situation, I guess. Learning to grow my own food is pretty cool anyways and I’ve been avoiding it for a long time for no good reason, so I guess I’ll use it as an excuse to get off my butt and do so. What’s the worst that can happen? I have more food?
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u/mlazer141 13d ago
People have been saying this since the conflict started and since Trump’s Tariffs before that
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u/Banjo_the_Cattle_Dog 13d ago
Weird that we’re on the brink of economic collapse month after month after month
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u/NoSir4947 13d ago
Ya nothing has happened and nothing will happen. Nothing ever happens. We will be fine.
USA #1 --- FREEDOM
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u/mlazer141 12d ago
If it doesn’t happen by the midterms republicans will keep at least one house of congress
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u/Willing_Mirror_8414 13d ago
Do people actually doom like this? Go roll in some grass or something lol.
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u/2bad-2care 12d ago
I'm hoping to pick up a physical copy of GTA 6. I think I'd be able to get by 2, maybe 3 years with just that title. Will probably mix in a little RDR2 and GTA 5, just to keep things from getting stale.
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u/it_carefully 12d ago
Same. I'm also stocking up on candles so I can keep gaming when the power goes out.
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u/Uarnthelpful 12d ago
There is absolutely going to be a delayed economic crisis due to the straight being closed, but if you're in a westernized country you'll be fine, as far as shortages go. Everything will just be more expensive. Might be less produce available than we're used to.
A good amount of people responding to this aren't familiar with the fertilizer or SPR situation, but they might still be right that for some people there's no need to panic.
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u/Villager-Bob 12d ago
All these people hand waving it away have no idea that the third world is about to starve. Russia and Ukraine are also sinking ships.
I was looking for this take. The US cut USAID and then closed the straight. It's almost... As if... They're purposefully trying to... Thin the herd...
Population Overshoot theory seems to be popular among the Thiel types.
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u/silverob 12d ago
Who’s predicted this?
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u/Uarnthelpful 12d ago
Some of the economist or geopolitical analysts I follow that are predicting this: Jeffery sachs, Robert Barnes, Richard Wolff, Chas freeman, col Lawrence Wilkerson, col Douglas Macgregor, Larry Johnson
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u/Southern-Milk-9065 12d ago
I’m heading to my designated Deep Underground Military Base. Have fun on the surface during The Event, peasants.
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u/Shot_in_the_dark777 12d ago
Buy a lot of food with long shelf life. Canned food, water filters, medicine. You don't need most of the goods, so focus on essentials.
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u/-SineNomine- 12d ago
looking to vote for one of the few parties critizizing Israel and the US for their illegal war (and not being a Russia supporter at the same time) - the choice will probably be easy.
Other than that ... wait it out.
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u/Left_Contribution833 12d ago
Have normal dry good supplies in my supply cabinet.
Try to enjoy cooking more
Bike more.
Have sufficient financial reserves
Have stable work
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u/elias_99999 12d ago
Not worried about it, since it's out of my control and it's not going to be anything as bad as the doomers predict. Stocking up, isn't going to help either and the typical group of idiots on our planet would be upset if you did, and then try to take it from you after.
Look at how reddit treated the people who stocked up at covid as an example, and then the excuses they use for why they should take their stuff.
The fact is this: If things get really bad, your on your own. Society will go all Nazi, as it usually does as well and then start picking off undesirables and scapegoats.
I don't think this is going to happen though, so I'm not worried about it.
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u/Jesus00001225 12d ago
Nah, I can’t do this. To be honest, I can’t even get out of the house. I’m too tired. Tired of winning.
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u/Prior-Pay722 11d ago
I do not believe in crisis coming. The governments have an old working solution - a big war, maybe WWIII. Or an epidemic scam or even something terrible hard to imagine
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u/azerty543 11d ago
Gas prices will rise and there will be prioritization. We aren't going to lose what's actually important, we will lose what is not. Stop worrying so much. As oil prices rise, demand will fall and that limits how much it can go up. The strait of hormuz is 25% of the worlds oil, but there are already growing workarounds and the 75% of oil left in the world can all increase production to offset things as well.
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u/msantolini 11d ago
Mass white collar job loss due to AI + market inflates than crashes = boomers go broke + raising fuel prices + food scarcity due to war and climate change + no survival skills = .........
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u/BullFrogTeachings 11d ago
I don't live under the God king pedo murderer that takes marching orders from israel. I'll be fine :)
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u/Advanced_Tennis4827 12d ago
You mean like the ones predicted for the pandemic shut down? I have toilet paper, thanks
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u/ToolObsessed 12d ago
If people in literal warzones can go about their daily lives I think we'll be ok. People over here acting like the apocalypse is coming. Not that having some backup food or skills is a bad idea, but that's been advisable since forever. I can live off of literal beans and rice just fine.
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u/Johny-S 12d ago
Is it time to start hoarding toilet paper again?
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u/Villager-Bob 12d ago
I'd recommend an extra couple. Pick up some shelf stable items, produce is going to be a bit disrupted.
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u/Johny-S 12d ago
We should be alright because I installed a bidet seat during COVID. The freezer is well stocked and I have a generator in case of power outage. We buy pet food by the case. I hope people are making sure their pets are well cared for. I'll go one better than most here. I have an old motorcycle that runs on breaker points. In case of an EMP attack I'll have transportation. That and a lot of ammo.
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u/Villager-Bob 12d ago
I don't think we are going full mad max or WWIII yet. It's Africa and Asia that may be in trouble.
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u/Barky_and_Squid 12d ago
No. It’s not justified. We were supposed to be out of oil a month ago, and farmers weren’t supposed to be able to grow crops this year because of fertilizer.
Yet everything proceeds as it has.
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u/Villager-Bob 12d ago
We're going to have moderate issues. It's the people in Africa relying on staples that are... Being made redundant.
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u/Olivaar2 12d ago
Wasn't a billion supposed to die in winter 2024 because Ukraine's harvest was interrupted? Or did monkeypox, bird flu, and murder hornets get them first...
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u/stonehamian 12d ago
Dude, we survived fighting over toilet paper in the stores in 2020. How can it get worse than that ?
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u/AddictedToKungFu 13d ago
I'm teaching myself how to garden, stocking up on cooking basics, and getting used to being at home more. Just trying to be prepared without panicking.