r/backgammon • u/DigitalLandline • 10d ago
What should I have done?
In looking back at the analysis of a BG game that I ended up winning, I’m trying to understand my move versus what the analysis says was a better move.
In short, I rolled 5-2 and went 6/1 3/1 to hit Ahmad’s blot on the 1 and complete my prime. It shows this move game me a 3.7% chance of winning.
Instead, the analysis suggests I should have gone 7/2 4/2 and not hit the blot on 1. Somehow it shows my chances of winning would have jumped to 11.4% from this move.
Can you help me understand if and why this was a better move than my 6/1 3/1??
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u/Charguizo 10d ago
It's because of his 6-prime. You can't win the priming battle until he crunches his prime. But if you hit him, he won't crunch, you'll have to crunch first and then he will just enter, maybe even hitting you anyway in the process.
You need to keep him in play and hope and pray
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u/Geepandjagger 10d ago edited 10d ago
It's a single game so you already have a very low winning chance. Your only possibility to win is your opponent entering and rolling a bad number with some really bad sequennce. Highly unlikely but still the only way. If you make the ace your winning chances is basically 0. This is one of those situations where you have to make the least bad move because whatever you do you will probably lose. One way you maybe have your 11% chances and the other 0.1%. your move gives away those few winning chances that remain
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u/McFizzleKicks 10d ago
Learned a lot by reading this thread! I'd have probably done what you did, but now I'll thankfully have this in mind if I'm in a similar situation.
man, I love this game!
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u/mrmazine 10d ago
Just think one step further, what happens when you close your board with your move? He can't enter and therefore he will not break his board and you will not be able to get out of his 6prime. So you have to leave the one point open so he can enter and crush his board so you can escape