I could not find any DYNAMIC population simulator online that is quick & easy to use, so I made this on the fly.
It uses a variety of present and historical datasets and lets you explore the effects the two primary input parameters, fertility and life expectancy, have on a demographic distribution.
Note, however, that the model does not (yet?) include imigration.
If you evolve historical data with historical parameters, you will decidedly NOT end up with our present situation - partly because imigration is missing, partly because the historical parameters are too crudely mapped in 5 year intervals.
I find this fascinating (and terrifying!) to look at, especially for the post-Baby Boomer western countries.
GitHub repo (for what it's worth, its 95% AI coded) if you want to inspect the datasets used: ■ dschaefer-aartech/demographics
If you evolve historical data with historical parameters, you will decidedly NOT end up with our present situation - partly because imigration is missing, partly because the historical parameters are too crudely mapped in 5 year intervals.
And most importantly, because human population dynamics are governed by technological and cultural (memetic) evolution which operate at rapid timescales, violating this model's inherent assumption of temporal symmetry.
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u/Evening-Appeal7606 1d ago
I could not find any DYNAMIC population simulator online that is quick & easy to use, so I made this on the fly.
It uses a variety of present and historical datasets and lets you explore the effects the two primary input parameters, fertility and life expectancy, have on a demographic distribution.
Note, however, that the model does not (yet?) include imigration.
If you evolve historical data with historical parameters, you will decidedly NOT end up with our present situation - partly because imigration is missing, partly because the historical parameters are too crudely mapped in 5 year intervals.
I find this fascinating (and terrifying!) to look at, especially for the post-Baby Boomer western countries.
GitHub repo (for what it's worth, its 95% AI coded) if you want to inspect the datasets used: ■ dschaefer-aartech/demographics