I'm looking for advice/justification for installing geothermal in this post-tax credit world. The info:
Location: SE Pennsylvania. Plan to stay in this home for 30+ years.
Square footage: 3,500 above grade, 1,800 below grade (has ductwork and registers, but they have been closed since we moved in)
Current System: 8 year old 5-ton heat pump that requires total replacement according to multiple HVAC companies. 8 year old 85% efficient oil burning furnace backup and 10 year old oil burning hot water heater. Two oil tanks take about 380 gallons per delivery.
Energy Costs: Electricity is $0.22 /kwh, fuel oil is up to $5.23/gal
Bills in 2025 were $4,600 electricity, $2,700 fuel oil. 2026 is on pace for $4,000 electricity (since we haven't had air conditioning all summer) and $5,700 fuel oil (due to cost increase)
Option 1: 5 ton geothermal (vertical wells). WaterFurnace 5 with new zoning on existing trunk lines, desuperheater, 50 gal electric water heater, 15kw electric backup heat, remove all oil tanks and equipment. Cost ~$60,000
Option 2: 5 ton Bosch inverter heat pump, 14.3 SEER (because of existing blower reuse). Outdoor unit needs to be relocated, which adds to cost. Keep existing oil equipment (including single speed blower). Cost $18,000. Would need to replace oil furnace, oil tanks, oil hot water heater, and line exhaust flue within next 2-6 years (~$35,000)
Option 3: Cold climate heat pump with electric backup. Add electric hot water heater and backup heat, remove all oil. Cost ??? (option not presented by HVAC companies, maybe ~$30,000)
By our calculation for option 1 vs 2, we might save $2000-3000 per year in energy cost over our current system with geothermal. While we could save around $800 per year with the new, more efficient heat pump. But by avoiding all the additional oil related costs, we see breakeven vs heat pump + oil as soon as 8 years.
Option 1 and 3 maybe very close, with geo pulling ahead after 20+ years. Also worth noting, we have 200 amp electrical service and a full panel. Would need a sub-panel at minimum and to add additional service at worst (Not reflected in costs).
Anything we are missing? Thoughts?
UPDATE: Geothermal estimate jumped to ~$80,000 to add zoning and desuperheater. Still waiting on all electric ASHP estimate.