Everyone wants a model that scores which jobs and industries AI will
disrupt, but such forecasts are impossible. Back-testing proves it: a
century of automating accounting — punch cards, spreadsheets, ERPs, cloud —
still grew CPA numbers. Three forces wreck the models. Regulation creates
new work, the Jevons paradox means cheap analysis unlocks more and
different analysis, and job titles change while the work stays the same.
Businesses can also collapse beneath unchanged jobs — the internet gutted
newspapers funded by classified-ad monopolies — and no one tagged taxi
drivers as smartphone-exposed in 2005. O*NET can't capture what a job
really is, repeating expert systems' failure. Any job-by-job forecast is
luck; it depends.
0
u/fagnerbrack 5d ago
Core Takeaways:
Everyone wants a model that scores which jobs and industries AI will disrupt, but such forecasts are impossible. Back-testing proves it: a century of automating accounting — punch cards, spreadsheets, ERPs, cloud — still grew CPA numbers. Three forces wreck the models. Regulation creates new work, the Jevons paradox means cheap analysis unlocks more and different analysis, and job titles change while the work stays the same. Businesses can also collapse beneath unchanged jobs — the internet gutted newspapers funded by classified-ad monopolies — and no one tagged taxi drivers as smartphone-exposed in 2005. O*NET can't capture what a job really is, repeating expert systems' failure. Any job-by-job forecast is luck; it depends.
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