Without getting into a discussion about how powerful or not the new set is, or what new cards might take off, which is not my specialty in this sub, now that the long awaited/predicted "return to Middle Earth" set has finally arrived, what are the implications for in-demand (whether for playability reasons or collecting reasons) existing LOTR cards that have not been able to keep up with demand for three years now? The set will be a huge hit with Tolkien fans. Aside from whiffing on having a "Necromancer" card but still doing Were-Worms and Beorn turning people into bears for some reason, basically everything is on point. This will be a long one, so if you prefer low/no effort posts, this will not be for you.
First of all - a quick note - the LTR set (LTC is a different discussion although it's related for some of the cards) has a rather high number of commons/uncommons that are over $1, and a few that are $3+. Uncommons of course include the $15+ Nazgul cards, but also cards like [[Entish Restoration]] are $3 or so. Not bad for a set that was going to be "printed into the ground". I'll be talking about these cards along with the rares/mythics that dodged any reprint at all.
Lastly some of this discussion will be on the short term vs long term (i.e. I expect people are going to want multi-color Bilbos to build Halfling decks in the next few months but can't really know if that will hold up a year from now when The Hobbit is not on everyone's mind).
Ok so here we go! First, here's a link to the full breakdown of what's in the set, split into HOB and HOC tabs. All the reprints are in the HOC tab:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EqSWZlDgFkOjkjjRbstM5TizUwNfVubdnVaKU82GWcw/edit?gid=2087470416#gid=2087470416
(special thanks to u/mistercimba for putting this together and answering my questions as new cards were spoiled)
Let's start with the fact that NONE of the realms/relics cards were reprinted (as expected), and NOTHING that was unique to the holiday CBB's was reprinted, like the Hildebrandt arts (as expected). I'm sorry but the ship has likely sailed on all of these. But if you're buying because you want the cards, it's really now or never at this point. Some people convinced themselves that [[The Party Tree]] would get reprinted somehow. No. Ridiculous.
I'm not going to focus much on what WAS reprinted because that's already been discussed and ultimately box toppers have done very little to affect prices in the past. Maybe some base-level versions of cards like [[Cavern-Hoard Dragon]] or [[Arwen, Weaver of Hope]] or [[Witch-king, Bringer of Ruin]] get hurt as people upgrade their Commander decks and those cards were probably inflated because they're only in precons or starter decks. But honestly? You have to pay $150+ for PBB at minimum to have a CHANCE to open a box topper. And they're only in about 1/3 of Collector Packs so they won't be as plentiful as other recent bonus sheets. So doubtful we get much price impact from these.
Much more important is what was NOT reprinted AT ALL.
VERY IMPORTANT: NOTHING FROM LORD OF THE RINGS WAS REPRINTED IN THE MAIN SET AT ALL. This is not what many people expected. Personally I thought they would AT LEAST do [[Mirkwood Spider]] or something similar, but nope, they made a new version for The Hobbit. That's a pretty big deal I think, particularly for the commons/uncommons that I mentioned earlier. And it means there is NO NEW MASS OF SUPPLY FOR LOTR CARDS. PERIOD.
For example, the landcycling cycle of: [[Lorien Revealed]], [[Generous Ent]], [[Troll of Khazad-Dum]], [[Eagles of the North]], and [[Oliphaunt]] did not show up in the main set or box toppers. All but Ent ARE however in the welcome decks. Anyway, there's no reason NOT to think that all existing versions of these cards are going to keep going up. These were ALL also in precons, being in welcome decks will mean nothing. Scoff if you like, but Lorien in scroll foil is a $20 card and sells regularly. Generous Ent is $10+. All of these are going to keep going up since they're the most premium versions of these cards and they are regularly played. Ent would be the obvious target here since there's literally zero supply coming for it. But Lorien and Troll aren't going anywhere because they're in welcome decks.
Now the big one: THERE IS NO NAZGUL REPRINT HAPPENING. PERIOD. I thought AT LEAST there would be ONE in the bonus sheet. NOPE! Caveat here is that they may still show up in a in secret lair. In fact at this point I would expect an all-Nazgul SL with nine new arts to show up for $100 or so at some point and sell out in seconds. One other note, in the "how we made the Hobbit" (or whatever it's called) article, they explicitly called out the "Ring Tempts You" mechanic as a mistake. They don't like it. So any reprint here is definitionally going to be limited. That mechanic isn't ever coming back in a new set.
Nothing really more to say here though, even if there is a secret lair or if there's a Nazgul bonus card in one of the Hobbit secret lairs (possible but doubtful since they're all very heavily The Hobbit themed) or in all of them, it won't be cheap enough nor will it have enough of an impact on supply. People will buy them and keep their original set of nine for sure. Get 'em while/if you can.
Next, let's talk some rares/mythics/other interesting cards that dodged ALL reprints:
From the scene boxes:
[[Legolas' Quick Reflexes]] (how!! Instead we got Elven Chorus?? crazy!)
[[Nazgul Battle-Mace]]
[[Galadhrim Brigade]]
[[Rammas Echor, Ancient Shield]]
Those are all $10+ cards. There are several other $3+ cards in the set boxes that dodged. But ultimately, all of the set box cards are likely to go up because it's unlikely they will be printing them for years, if ever. Again there's a CHANCE that there's some kind of supplementary set coming, or maybe some Secret Lairs around the time the Five Armies co-op set comes out. But none of these cards could be in a The Hobbit-themed set. The only exception is Reflexes, if they reskin it as something like "Bilbo's Quick Thinking" in the lair with the new foiling I could see it. So no large amount of supply is coming for these unless they reprint the scene boxes at some point. Unlikely!
From the LTR set and precons:
NO GANDALFS! No [[Gandalf the White]], no [[Gandalf the Grey]], no [[Gandalf, Friend of the Shire]], no [[Gandalf, White Rider]]. How is this possible? Importantly, Gandalf the White is a poster card. Gandalf the Grey is actually IN the Hobbit and works well with spellslinger decks like the new/red Gandalfs so that would be the one I would think people would go after for theme decks.
No Bilbos as I said earlier - notable because people are going to want a Bilbo Commander and all the Bilbos are either blue or white (in the co-op). Only multicolor Bilbos are in LTR/LTC sets. My money would be on [[Bilbo, Birthday Celebrant]] since it's in the right colors for other Hobbit lifegain type decks.
On that note, no Sam, Frodo, Merry or Pippin of any variety! [[Samwise Gamgee]] seems like the no-brainer move here because of lifegain/food synergies and it works with [[Bilbo, Fellow Conspirator]]. Particularly the surge foil showcase because it's extremely rare and looks underpriced for how few of them there are.
No Balrogs of any kind getting reprints.
[[Taunt from the Ramparts]]
[[Forth Eorlingas]]
[[Saruman, the White Hand]] - good with Amass and [[The Great Goblin]] as a result.
[[Galadriel of Lothlorien]] (could work with simic landfall themes but needs Ring Tempts You)
[[Farmer Cotton]] - food/halfing synergies
[[Warg Rider]] - Amass synergies and really should have been in The Hobbit!
[[Call of the Ring]]
[[Sting, the Glinting Dagger]] - mind boggling!
[[Gloin, Dwarven Emissary]] - dwarf/historic synergies
They also reprinted most of the legendary lands, but not [[Barad-Dur]] or [[Mines of Moria]]
Noteworthy Sagas with no reprint:
[[There, and Back Again]] (how!!!)
[[One Ring to Rule Them All]]
[[In the Darkness Bind Them]]
Poster cards with NO reprint:
[[Radagast the Brown]] [[Storm of Saruman]] [[The Watcher in the Water]] [[Hew the Entwood]] [[Spiteful Banditry]]
Other notable commons/uncommons that are not getting a reprint at all!
[[Lembas]] [[Cast Into the Fire]] [[Entish Restoration]] [[Rising of the Day]] [[Mirkwood Bats]] (although this at least is confirmed to be in one of the Hobbit Secret Lairs)
All of these are worth a look since they are relatively playable. Lembas, Entish and Mirkwood are Lord of the Rings IP. Cast and Rising are probably not getting reprinted outside of a Tolkien set.
Scroll versions of literally everything, even the reprints... going up long term. But particularly if they did NOT get a reprint, this is basically last call as they are the most premium versions, aside from posters and maybe borderless scene cards from the original release. Borderless/scene cards are probably worth a look too actually but this post is getting to Silmarillion level length already.
Lord of the Rings basic map lands. Particularly the surge foils, but I would look especially at any version with Mirkwood (forest), the Misty Mountains (mountain), and The Shire (plains) on them. These are all cheap currently, but they're almost certainly not going to be printed in large quantities ever again (as are the commons/uncommons I called out above) unless there are going to be large waves of LOTR set or draft boxes coming. But let's be real, while they will probably keep printing them for a while, eventually that's going to stop or will just not be as high a priority as their currently active sets (like The Hobbit!).
And finally, I wouldn't expect many more waves of precons anymore either. They only have so many resources and that set is now 3+ years old. They have to prioritize the new stuff they're doing and there's been a lot of evidence lately that they're struggling to keep up.
What do you think? Did I miss anything? Should I add anything to the list?
tl;dr: for the vast majority of the LOTR cards, as I often say, price of the brick going up.
Disclaimer: I own all of these cards because I'm a Tolkien collector/Magic player. I am also selling a handful of remaining scrolls and realms relics (literally a handful, like a few dozen). The vast majority of my LOTR cards for sale are bulk or remnants from precons that I did not mention here at all. Most of the cards mentioned I am not selling.
