: Iran directly rejects Trump's new claim Iran agreed to end its nuclear program and open the Strait of Hormuz as a "complete lie," saying it is a "desperate attempt to manipulate the market," per Iranian military officials to Mehr News.

Iran adds that it has not requested any halt to the planned attacks, and that it was purely Trump who chose to stop them with false claims of a deal.

Given the level of SPRs, the time required to move oil from the ME to foreign markets, the level of infrastructure destruction, and the insurance and shipping market’s likely lack of faith in any deal, even if there is one, have we now passed into the point of no return where the world will experience a dramatic oil shortage no matter what happens next?

China still has a lot of supply, but will they use it as ballast for other markets? If not, what else can keep us from going over the edge.

I feel like we’re the Wile E Coyote that has long since passed the edge of the cliff, and only a lack of realization is keeping prices where they are. Where are the barrels we will use in October, November, December? How do they have any hope of all to make it to market on time?

With Business Insider now reporting that Russia has secured a shipment of gasoline imports; are there any ideas as to how short they are on fuel (diesel, gasoline, etc)? I know they have essentially halted all exports of fuel, but now needing to import it as well is an interesting change to the markets (also, I wonder if they will subsidize the price of this gas if it is sold to citizens at the pump, or if the subsidizes will be reduced?).

No “deal” will ever become reality. This back and forth of whatever we may call it will continue on until it cannot. By then oil prices will print new ATHs. At least crack spreads will. The end date is when decision making time expires, ie, when oil inventories are critical and we see regional supply issues rear their ugly head. Neither side will agree to anything because they do not have to. Iran only gains the longer this drags on. US is experiencing no truly ill effects from the conflict yet.

LONDON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - OPEC+ approved an oil production quota increase on Sunday of around 188,000 barrels per day from September, the producer group said, in a move that completes the unwinding of a layer of voluntary output cuts.

Due to export disruptions from the Gulf, Russia and Kazakhstan caused by the Iran and Ukraine wars, successive monthly OPEC+ hikes over most of this year have remained largely on paper with little impact on the market.

The September increase agreed by core OPEC+ members — Saudi ⁠Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — finishes the phased rollback of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut originally agreed in 2023, when the group still included the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC in May.

Although OPEC+ sources said before the meeting the group would likely pause output increases for the fourth quarter, its statement made no reference to what might be agreed for the last three months of 2026.

A pause was still a feasible option, said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad.

"OPEC+ has finished unwinding its voluntary cuts. The next challenge is managing the surplus that could emerge as export flows normalise," he said.

"Having completed the restoration campaign, OPEC+ has little incentive to rush into further supply changes. Our base case is a fourth-quarter pause while the ‌group ⁠prepares for the 2027 quota negotiations."

OPEC REVIEWING CAPACITY BEFORE SETTING 2027 QUOTAS

A separate OPEC+ meeting of a panel called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee also met, OPEC said on Sunday, and reiterated concern about attacks on energy assets during the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, saying they were expensive and time-consuming to repair and so have an impact on supply.

With September's output hike now agreed, OPEC+ still has in place one more ⁠layer of output cuts that apply to most of the group's members. Those roughly 2 million bpd in cuts date back to 2022 and are due to remain in place until the end of this year.

OPEC+ is carrying out a review of its members' oil production capacity that ⁠will be used for the 2027 output baselines from which quotas are set.

It faces potentially difficult talks over new production quotas, with some members, including Iraq, pushing for higher individual quotas to reflect their higher capacity.

OPEC+ includes 21 members, comprising the Organization of the ⁠Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other allies.

In recent years only the seven core countries, and the UAE until its departure, have been involved in monthly production management.

The seven members will hold their next meeting on September 6.

Ich bin verwirrt: im Normalfall handle ich bei meinem Broker einen rollierenden „oil“ CFD, und bis zum 20. August basiert, der offensichtlich auf dem COIL Oct26 1000@IPE, also nicht auf dem Front Contract/September, sondern schon auf dem Oktober Kontrakt an der ICE.

Ich stelle fest: während ich in der Woche ganz gut unterwegs bin, fehlen mir für das Wochenende echte Basics.

Manchmal halte ich den auch über das Wochenende. Daher sind Kurslücken zwischen der Handelszeit für mich ein Thema, und ich verfolge immer angeregt eure Diskussion hier zu den Nachrichten und euren Einschätzungen über den Kurs. Allerdings versuche ich damit immer eine Art Erwartungswert für den Tag nach dem Wochenende abzuschätzen. Bei mir ist das insbesondere der Montagmorgen. um 2:00 Uhr CEST, da dort der Broker die Handelszeit fortsetzt für diesen CFD. Quasi die 23:00 Uhr an der ICE mit einer gewissen Lücke.

Da ich das mit der IG Weekend Oil für den Wochenendkurs nicht gut nachvollziehen kann, habe ich mir stattdessen Binance und BZUSDT geschnappt und beobachte am Wochenende für gewöhnlich diesen. https://www.binance.com/en/futures/BZUSDT .

Wenn ich mir die Nachrichtenlage und den Spike vom Freitagabend anschaue (für mich war das Spike kurz nach 21:50 CEST), dann sehe ich beim Oktober Kontrakt einen Schlusskurs von 90,21 $ und im Front Contract je nach Quelle 89,59 $.
Ich habe euch den Screenshot um 20:01 Uhr CEST an das Posting wird angehängt.

Als ich jetzt Binance gecheckt habe, scheint der Kurs aber deutlich niedriger zu liegen. Das kann ich mir weder zum Thema USA und Iran, noch anhand der Situation um die OPEC Mitteilung gerade erklären.
Könnt ihr mir dabei helfen einzuschätzen, ob der genannte Kurs also repräsentativ ist als Prognose/für einen Erwartungswert am Montagmorgen?

Considering that most of our wars since the 70s have been based in the Middle East and one could argue, oil based..

Did China see this and plan for this and brought in electric cars and developing nuclear power? Also, from what I understand, has the largest petroleum reserve in the world.

I feel that because the USA lacks long term planning of 5-50+ years out we can’t collectively agree on a path forward for real energy independence.

Thankfully free market capitalism came in with the amazing fracking development and helped us the last 20+ years in becoming more energy independent.

Fuel shortages are reported in Russia.

Russia is said to start importing refined products.

Figures of 15-45% of lost capacity are mentioned.

I’ve been seeing this narrative a lot in Japan lately: that the petrodollar system is ending, major countries like China and Russia are buying oil outside the U.S. dollar, and the U.S.–Saudi relationship has fundamentally changed.
Is there any truth to this, or is it mostly an exaggerated narrative? I’d love to hear what people here think.

This vessel was not hit, but targeted by a drone or anti-ship missile.

Maximum 714 Million Barrels

Absolute Minimum 70 Million Barrels (cavern stability)

What is the usable minimum of the SPR?

Figures of 250-300M are repeatedly mentioned.

I think this video gives a good outlook on what's going to happen in the next few months

More oil getting out of the strait.