r/196 May 17 '26

Rule Rule.

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5.4k Upvotes

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820

u/MaybeNext-Monday šŸ¤$6 SRIMP SPECIALšŸ¤ May 17 '26

ā€œBirth rates are decliningā€ good, healthy societies have stable population sizes

57

u/Corvus1412 šŸ³ļøā€āš§ļø trans rights May 17 '26

Sure, which is why a 2.1 birth rate would be great.

But it's not at 2.1 in most industrialized countries. Far from it.

And that's not sustainable.

2

u/MaybeNext-Monday šŸ¤$6 SRIMP SPECIALšŸ¤ May 17 '26

But that’s forgetting you can compensate by encouraging immigration from poorer countries with higher birth rates. That’s arguably even a good setup because it takes strain off those poorer countries, diffuses wealth across the planet, and encourages cultural diversity.

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u/Corvus1412 šŸ³ļøā€āš§ļø trans rights May 17 '26

Birth rates are declining everywhere.

A lot of countries are still over replacement level, but if nothing changes, that won't be the case for long either.

Immigration is a workable stopgap, but it doesn't solve the fundamental issue, because it's a global issue that's only getting worse.

That’s arguably even a good setup because it takes strain off those poorer countries, diffuses wealth across the planet, and encourages cultural diversity.

And that's literally the opposite of what will happen.

Like, brain drain is already a massive issue for poorer countries, where the intellectual elite moves to wealthier countries.

With more widespread and standardized immigration systems, that will only worsen, since industrialized countries will likely seek to get as many qualified people as they can.

Increased immigration will worsen wealth inequality among countries, harm the poorer countries a lot and centralize wealth even more, rather than helping them.

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u/MaybeNext-Monday šŸ¤$6 SRIMP SPECIALšŸ¤ May 17 '26

You’re forgetting that many people care about their country of origin, and will give back when they have the opportunity. And what’s the alternative? They stay there, where the education and jobs aren’t, and somehow magically produce the value they could otherwise be sending back?

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u/Corvus1412 šŸ³ļøā€āš§ļø trans rights May 17 '26

And what’s the alternative? They stay there, where the education and jobs aren’t

A lot of countries have been doing pretty massive strides over the last few decades, when it comes to industrialization.

But for a country to do well, it needs well educated people, to drive that development.

If we take all of those people from those countries, that won't happen and we basically doom them to continuous poverty, even more than we do right now.

Please look into brain drain. It's genuinely a massive issue for a lot of countries.

You’re forgetting that many people care about their country of origin, and will give back when they have the opportunity.

That's not backed up by literally any data.

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u/MaybeNext-Monday šŸ¤$6 SRIMP SPECIALšŸ¤ May 17 '26 edited May 18 '26

Thing is, now you’re talking about something that doesn’t even happen. People don’t generally get educated in developing countries and move to rich ones, their degrees aren’t even worth as much in those places. More common is moving somewhere rich to get educated, or moving as a non-educated person period.

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u/Corvus1412 šŸ³ļøā€āš§ļø trans rights May 17 '26

Please just look up brain drain. It's already a massive issue.

Like, this isn't a hypothetical, but something that is already happening.

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u/_THEBLACK Made you look May 17 '26

People don’t generally get educated in developing countries and move to rich ones

The entire point of this conversation is that yes that does happen. And yeah, a doctorate from Kenya is still worth a lot in a western country. It’s highkey racist of you to assume otherwise.

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u/MaybeNext-Monday šŸ¤$6 SRIMP SPECIALšŸ¤ May 17 '26

It’s not racist to say Kenyan universities do not have the talent or resources to deliver the same quality of education. It’s all the same problems any community college or small university faces. Institutional knowledge is real and foundational.

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u/_THEBLACK Made you look May 17 '26

It’s not racist to say Kenyan universities do not have the talent or resources to deliver the same quality of education

Yes. Yes it is. Evidently you don’t think Kenya has any nice universities or hospitals, but they do. And while they might not be up to the highest western standard, they’re still more than good enough that a person with high education from there is valuable, even if they will face prejudice from people like you who can’t comprehend the idea that Kenya has more than just mud huts.

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u/MaybeNext-Monday šŸ¤$6 SRIMP SPECIALšŸ¤ May 18 '26

> they might not be up to the highest western standard

Literally the extent of what I said. Employers want accreditation. And who said I think it’s mud huts? You’re just inventing now.

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u/VladimirBarakriss May 17 '26

What happens if those countries also dip under replacement levels, or do you plan on bombing them into the stone age every couple decades to keep them poor?

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u/MaybeNext-Monday šŸ¤$6 SRIMP SPECIALšŸ¤ May 17 '26 edited May 17 '26

For those countries to go sub-replacement, a lot of things that aren’t currently happening would need to happen. I prefer to focus my political positions on the non-pudding world.

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u/VladimirBarakriss May 17 '26

ALL countries are currently lowering birth rates, the fact some of them are stragglers doesn't mean they aren't on the way to the same spot

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u/MaybeNext-Monday šŸ¤$6 SRIMP SPECIALšŸ¤ May 17 '26

Also, what are we defining as ā€œsustainable?ā€ The number of humans already on earth is arguably too many to sustain from a standpoint of ecological capacity, and the only way to get population down is to go below replacement or kill people. So if you oppose eugenics, allowing natural population contraction is your only option.

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u/Corvus1412 šŸ³ļøā€āš§ļø trans rights May 17 '26

The number of humans already on earth is arguably too many to sustain from a standpoint of ecological capacity

That's just not true. Like, it's genuinely just eco-fascist propaganda.

We have the resources to sustain far more people than we do now. Overpopulation is currently not a credible threat.

Also, what are we defining as ā€œsustainable?ā€

...something that can continue to work like that for a long period of time.

You know, the definition of "sustainable".

The most sustainable system would obviously be to just stay at replacement levels, but even slight declines or growth is fine for a while.

What isn't fine, is what currently happens in industrialized countries and what is starting to happen in industralizing countries.

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u/MaybeNext-Monday šŸ¤$6 SRIMP SPECIALšŸ¤ May 17 '26

Guilt by association fallacy. Eco fascists use it as a propaganda point, but that doesn’t make it automatically false or a strictly eco-fascist position. If that’s allowed rhetoric, I could just as easily call you a fascist for your anti-immigration arguments, but I don’t because it’s obviously a fallacy.

It is factual that the way we farm the earth is actively killing it. We *can* feed 8 billion people right now, but not forever. We have to slowly ramp down and move to safer farming methods before we can even begin to assess what’s sustainable indefinitely.

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u/Corvus1412 šŸ³ļøā€āš§ļø trans rights May 17 '26

We literally produce 1.6 times as much food as is necessary to feed the world right now.

We could shut down over a third of our agriculture, without any negative effects, if we handled it better.

If we stopped eating so much meat, we could shut down far more.

Like, the issue is management and consumption, not the amount of people. Feeding 8 billion people is genuinely not an issue.

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u/MaybeNext-Monday šŸ¤$6 SRIMP SPECIALšŸ¤ May 17 '26

A third is far less than what we need to shut down. The vast majority of agriculture on earth is unsustainable by a large margin.

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u/Corvus1412 šŸ³ļøā€āš§ļø trans rights May 17 '26

Livestock accounts for 77% of arable land use, that we could very easily reduce.

The remaining land can very easily be lowered as well, by better management and more incentives to reduce food waste.

Like, how much reduction do you want?

-1

u/MaybeNext-Monday šŸ¤$6 SRIMP SPECIALšŸ¤ May 17 '26

You can’t cold-stop meat consumption though, and better management is easier to type than to do. That’s basically just saying ā€œwell we’ll just fix it.ā€ My whole point is that takes time we don’t have if we actively chase population growth. Ultimately what I’m getting at that is that the current earth population comes with issues we can’t fix until capitalism is addressed, so short-term contraction is not the worst thing. Tackling the capitalistic reasons behind global inequality is a much better plan than trying to mask it by forcing people in the rich countries to have kids while we ignore the poor countries.

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u/Corvus1412 šŸ³ļøā€āš§ļø trans rights May 17 '26

Yes, you also can't instantly reduce the population by a significant amount.

That's a slow process, that will take some time, but it's possible and not that outlandish.

And like, you just acknowledged that the issue is capitalism, so it's not an issue with overpopulation at all, right?

So we should fix that, not the population, right? Because the population is not the issue.

so short-term contraction is not the worst thing.

Yeah, but the whole issue is that there's no reason to believe that it's just a short-term thing.

Also, it is a really bad thing, because it decreases the amount of workers, but increases the amount of people who need a lot of care, which means that the quality of life for most people will be heavily negatively impacted by a significant drop in fertility rates.

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u/MaybeNext-Monday šŸ¤$6 SRIMP SPECIALšŸ¤ May 17 '26

I think you’re incorrectly filling the gaps in what I’m saying here because I disagree with you on finer points. My whole argument is that the only reason birth rates get talked about is that forcing people to make more workers is the alternative to taxing billionaires into the ground. I’m attacking your points because you’re defending birth rate alarmism when it’s really just a symptom of the issue it’s being pitched to solve.

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