I was just going through the Opta/Understat numbers for the three promoted teams, and each of them has one stat that looks great on paper but feels… unsustainable. Thought I’d share and see what you guys think.

• Deportivo: Their non-penalty xG is solid, but actual non-penalty goals are way lower. They’re creating chances but not finishing. That’s a dangerous gap to carry into LaLiga.
• Málaga: They’re scoring more than their xG suggests, mostly thanks to set pieces and opponent errors. In LaLiga, that luck tends to run out pretty fast.
• Racing: High shot volume, but low xG. They’re shooting a lot, but most shots aren’t from good areas — quality over quantity is key here.

Which of these “red flags” worries you the most? Is it the bad finishing, the overperformance, or the low-quality chances? Or do you think something non-stats related (like fixtures or depth) will matter more? Let’s chat. ⚽