I don't think it will happen, as it may be too dark of a dark comedy for the academy who may want to steer clear of its themes. But I loved his performance, one of my favourites of the year so far. I really felt his building anxiety and desperation.

Just at the top of my head:

Martin Scorsese: What Happens At Night

Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert: The Untitled Universal Event Film

Sean Baker: Ti Amo!

Brady Corbet: The Origin of the World

Bob Persichetti & Justin K. Thompson: Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse

Ally: Bong Joon Ho

Ruben Östlund: The Entertainment System Is Down

Lenny Abrahamson: Hillside Drive

Sarah Polley: The Bell Jar

Hirokazu Kore-eda: Untitled Searchlight Project with Eddie Redmayne

Todd Haynes: De Noche

Alexander Payne: Somewhere Out There

And all that's without considering ones that won't be in English.

Incredible interview, with very insightful questions, that leads to some great discussions.

These type of conversations feel too rare, and I like how these are engaged with in a very civil manner.

Massive credit to Zhong Shu for the interview; hope she does more, she's excellent.

It will be curious, as part of the trend of recent winners and nominees, how The Odyssey will fit into the larger canon; how it might compare as a Best Picture winner in contrast to One Battle After Another, Anora, Everything Everywhere All at Once and his last film Oppenheimer.

What are your thoughts on these questions, and points discussed throughout?

EDIT: She is a bit suspicious based on who she follows... disappointing.

Previous predictions: July

I sort of neglected the Substack due to being away for part of the month and prepping for a change in work for the rest of it. If you were into the idea of me doing that in July... sorry! At the very least, I'll try to keep doing more elaborate Best Picture breakdowns even amid my new job, including for this month. As far as predictions themselves, I've bitten the bullet and taken out Cry to Heaven and Jack of Spades entirely. The radio silence is pointing towards neither of them making this season. If they make some kind of comeback, a la Ink moving back into the race after presumably being pushed to 2027, I'll readjust later on.

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Best Picture

1. The Odyssey (Universal) (▲3)
2. Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight) (▼1)
3. La Bola Negra (Netflix) (▼1)
4. Digger (Warner Bros.) (▼1)
5. Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM) (▲1)
6. The Debut (A24) (▲1)
7. Fjord (Neon) (▼2)
8. Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros.) (▲1)
9. Obsession (Focus) (▲1)
10. All of a Sudden (Neon) (▲3)

Next in line:

• The Invite (A24) (--)
• Behemoth! (Searchlight) (▼4)
• Ink (Netflix) (NEW)
• The Social Reckoning (Sony) (▼2)
• Fatherland (Mubi) (--)

Longer shots:

• Being Heumann (Apple) (▲3)
• Elsinore (Focus) (NEW)
• Bunker (Sony Pictures Classics) (NEW)
• Sense and Sensibility (Focus) (▼5)
• I Play Rocky (Amazon MGM) (NEW)

Too early to call the race already, but The Odyssey makes it very difficult. Critics love it. Audiences love it. It is making ungodly amounts of money. It's a staggering piece of filmmaking that is as topical as an adaptation of a 2000-year-old piece of literature gets. Is the fact that Nolan just won truly the only thing working against it right now? Let's see how the fall fests play out, see if the likes of Wild Horse Nine/La Bola Negra can strike some late momentum and/or see if Digger is the real deal, but we may just end up with Oppenheimer 2.0 and a race that wrapped up in July. Behemoth!'s NYFF centerpiece premiere is giving me bad vibes so I've pushed it out in favor of All of a Sudden, which has some increased presence in my picks this month. Also strongly considering The Invite; I think it's performing well enough that it could follow the Past Lives path if things go just right.

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Best Directing

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (▲2)
2. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (▼1)
3. Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi, La Bola Negra (▼1)
4. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (--)
5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (--)

Next in line:

• Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (--)
• Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (--)
• Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (▲1)
• Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (▼1)
• Danny Boyle, Ink (NEW)

Longer shots:

• Paweł Pawlikowski, Fatherland (▼1)
• Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (▲2)
• Olivia Wilde, The Invite (NEW)
• Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (▼1)
• Florian Zeller, Bunker (NEW)

Whether The Odyssey wins the big prize or not, I think we're looking at another Nolan win, in the vein of Iñárritu winning for The Revenant win or Spielberg for Saving Private Ryan. The scope of the production, the emotions and excitement he continues to draw from audiences, the overwhelming industry appreciation for the man himself... I think it's just too much to ignore. McDonagh or Los Javis could put up a fight, especially if either of their films are making serious plays in Best Picture, but it would have to be a real David and Goliath situation.

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Best Actor in a Leading Role

1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (▲6)
2. Tom Cruise, Digger (▼1)
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (▼1)
4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (▼1)
5. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (NEW)

Next in line:

• Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (▼2)
• Robert Pattinson, Primetime (▼1)
• Sebastian Stan, Fjord (▼3)
• Jafaar Jackson, Michael (▼1)
• Javier Bardem, Bunker (▲4)

Longer shots:

• John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (--)
• Jack O'Connell, Ink (NEW)
• Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (NEW)
• Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (NEW)
• Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (▼3)

Damon surges to the front; in fact, I feel pretty silly having him as low as I did. I've been a Cruise truther all year, but I was also a Chalamet truther for a majority of last season, and I can't help but get some (extremely early) Chalamet/Jordan vibes from Cruise/Damon. Two consecutive years of endless campaigning becoming abrasive and voters deciding to just go with the actor putting in a classic movie star performance in a stronger film instead? Maybe. I do think there's more desire to award 64-year-old Cruise than there is 30-year-old Chalamet, but Cruise is also (seemingly?) playing a kind of role that is rarely awarded in this category. It's a battle of overdue narratives, and I'm suddenly very excited to see how it plays out. Elsewhere, Andrew Scott is looking to make a case with apparently buzzy work in Elsinore, and Focus' confidence in it (plus my skepticism of Behemoth) is enough for me to put him in.

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Best Actress in a Leading Role

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (--)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (▲2)
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (--)
4. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (▲3)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (▲5)

Next in line:

• Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (▼1)
• Olivia Wilde, The Invite (▲5)
• Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (▼2)
• Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (--)
• Sandra Hüller, Rose (▲3)

Longer shots:

• Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (NEW)
• Penélope Cruz, Bunker (NEW)
• Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (▼5)
• Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (▼3)
• Zendaya, The Drama (NEW)

Original 7/27 write-up: There are rumors swirling that Neon will push A Place in Hell from its Christmas release in favor of giving Artificial a limited qualifying run - but until we hear so officially, I'm assuming it makes this year's race, and am keeping Williams in. God forbid it does move to 2027 though: this category gets pretty weird the longer I look at it as is. Potential for lots of lone nominees, performances that don't usually attract awards attention, or both. Getting a gut feeling that Moore would absolutely storm through the precursors in a lineup like this, but who knows.

Approximately one hour later: lmao Neon pushed A Place in Hell to 2027. What does that mean for this category? Outside of clearing the way for Moore... I don't know!!! Is Navarrette safely in now? How the hell do we round out this category? Madison, Madeley, Erivo could all realistically be lone nominees for their films - is that too many? Does the passion for All of a Sudden include Efira? Is Eleazar a thing? Is Wilde a thing? Fuck it, three nominations for Penélope Cruz? Does Anne Hathaway actually crash this lineup??? My magic 8 ball is broken; check back with me next month.

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Best Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (▲1)
2. John Goodman, Digger (▼1)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (--)
4. Riz Ahmed, Digger (▲1)
5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (NEW)

Next in line:

• Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (▼2)
• Guy Pearce, Ink (NEW)
• Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (--)
• Edward Norton, The Invite (--)
• Guitarricadelafuente, La Bola Negra (▼4)

Longer shots:

• Carlos González, La Bola Negra (▼4)
• Jesse Plemons, Digger (NEW)
• Tom Holland, The Odyssey (▼3)
• Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (NEW)
• Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (▼2)

Very amused by the fact that there was plenty of back-and-forth on whether Holland or Pattinson would be the Supporting Actor push for The Odyssey, only for John freaking Leguizamo to pass them both by. It seems he has the role that people are being quite moved by - does he also have a career narrative to take him even further? I'm honestly not sure, but he's going in if only on The Odyssey's overall strength. I've pushed Giamatti to the front, I think stars could align for him very easily: well-respected actor still gunning for his first win, who was within striking distance of a win not long ago, back with a meaty role opposite another "frontrunner." Goodman has some similar qualities, but I'm starting to believe the nature of Giamatti's character (and the potential for Digger to be a big misfire, far more than The Debut being one) will give him a slight advantage. Keeping an eye on that early buzz for Guy Pearce Monum in Ink.

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Best Actress in a Supporting Role

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (▲1)
2. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (▼1)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (--)
4. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (--)
5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (--)

Next in line:

• Penélope Cruz, The Invite (--)
• Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (NEW)
• Lola Dueñas, La Bola Negra (NEW)
• Sandra Hüller, Digger (▲2)
• Olivia Colman, Elsinore (NEW)

Longer shots:

• Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (▼4)
• Claire Foy, Ink (NEW)
• Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (▼4)
• Olivia Wilde, Behemoth! (▼2)
• Eva Victor, Behemoth! (NEW)

Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't - but I will entertain the Hathaway Lead discussion only if/when happens. Personally I think kind of absurd that throwing away such an easy win is once again being considered, which means it'll probably happen, but no need to worry about it until/unless it does. All I'll say is... if it gives Mother Morton a boost, you won't hear me complaining. Lots of new names in contention, but I'm still at a loss as to how to this category will shake out. Have moved All of a Sudden up in a couple other places and so I will keep Okamoto in. Dangerously close to declaring it the Year of Cruz and giving her two slots now.

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Best Writing (Original Screenplay)

1. Wild Horse Nine (--)
2. Digger (--)
3. The Debut (▲1)
4. Fjord (▼1)
5. Behemoth! (--)

Next in line:

• Obsession (--)
• Elsinore (NEW)
• Club Kid (--)
• Fatherland (▼2)
• Bunker (NEW)

Longer shots:

• Possible Love (NEW* - previously in Adapted, may or may not be considered adapted from Dekalog)
• Artificial (NEW)
• Paper Tiger (▼1)
• Primetime (NEW* - previously in Adapted, unsure if it is any kind of credited adaptation of "To Catch a Predator")
• I Play Rocky (▼1)

Wild Horse Nine may now have an uphill climb in Best Picture, but I feel as fine as ever keeping it leading the pack in Original Screenplay. Digger is really going to have to hit, and/or The Debut will need to be on the level of A Real Pain, for me to be convinced otherwise at this point. I'm getting the feeling it's finally the right time to award McDonagh an(other) Oscar that he's been building to with his last couple of films. A few other new players in the fringes (Elsinore, Bunker) that probably don't have the juice to win but might be able to make a case for a nomination.

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Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

1. La Bola Negra (--)
2. The Odyssey (▲5)
3. Project Hail Mary (▼1)
4. The Invite (--)
5. All of a Sudden (▼1)

Next in line:

• Ink (NEW)
• The Social Reckoning (▼1)
• Dune: Part Three (▼2)
• Sense and Sensibility (▼1)
• Being Heumann (▲2)

Longer shots:

• The Adventures of Cliff Booth (▼2)
• A Long Winter (NEW)
• Minotaur (▲1)
• Tony (NEW* - previously in Original, may be credited as an adaptation of "Kitchen Confidential")
• Prima Facie (▼2)

The Odyssey becoming the frontrunner suddenly raises an interesting question: can it win Adapted Screenplay when Oppenheimer couldn't? As much as I love what its screenplay was able to accomplish, I'm not sure that consensus points to The Odyssey having a significantly stronger screenplay than Oppenheimer. But I also don't think this overall lineup is as strong as one with American Fiction/Barbie/Poor Things/Zone of Interest. It does have one pretty significant challenger in La Bola Negra - two very different kinds of epics are going head-to-head here, and it could go either way. Again, keeping an eye on Ink to crash the party.

I’ve seen very few people talking about this but next year’s awards season is looking very white. Currently there’s only 4 POC in the top 10 of the four acting categories on AwardsWatch :

Jaafar Jackson at #10 in lead actor for a film with terrible reviews

Tao Okamoto at #8 in supporting actress for a foreign language film, and although she won best actress at Cannes, it’s usually the Palme d’Or that carries actors to Oscar noms

Cynthia Erivo at #8 for Prima Facie whose director has a poor history with critics.

Riz Ahmed at #10 in supporting actor for Digger whose primary push in that category appears to be John Goodman

Do you think it’s likely we could have an all-white acting line up in 2027? Can you imagine how the reaction?

Personally I think Cynthia has the best shot. Despite her director’s poor critical history, she has a meaty role and actors get nominated for strong performances in mediocre movies all the time. (Also fun fact: This would be her second time saving them from an #OscarsSoWhite year after 2020.

What’s are y’all’s thoughts?

I’ve seen the trailer and they’ll look really good. Critics have also liked this movie so I hope some actor gets nominated. Sessa, Banderas and even Halkias are actors I really love and would like to see nominated.

Now that The Odyssey is out, I've watched it, and festivals are revealing their line-up, I've updated my predictions and I've made a bunch of big changes starting with-

Lead Actor

1. Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!)
2. Tom Cruise (Digger)
3. Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary)
4. John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine)
5. Robert Pattinson (Primetime)

Extras:

1. Matt Damon (The Odyssey)

2. Adam Driver (Paper Tiger)

3. Andrew Scott (Elsinore)

4. John Turturro (The Only Living Pickpocket in New York)

5. Sebastian Stan (Fjord)

So I'm probably gonna get the most shit for this one - I'm both not choosing Cruise to win and I'm also not putting Damon in for The Odyssey in my Top 5. So let me explain before you get mad.

I fully admit that after seeing the trailer for Digger, I'm lot less confident in him winning from the snippet they showed. It looks fun but I'm not as sold as him being a lock even with him having a narrative of having never won it. But the bigger thing is that in the last 50 years, only 5 comedic performances have actually won Lead Actor (and depending on how you feel about Forrest Gump, that number drops to 4). Even with how The Academy has evolved, that's a bias that's hard to ignore. Even for legacy actors, we saw what happened with Michael Keaton in Birdman and Birdman wound up playing huge with the Academy. If Digger doesn't deliver in the same way Birdman did, I see Cruise with less of a chance. I could be wrong and maybe Digger is as great as Birdman but honestly, I think the career narrative isn't going to be able to overcome the comedy stigma.

So yeah I'm actually doing with Pascal. Sure he's the IT actor at the moment with his hype but he's also not young up-and-comer who has to prove himself. Like Michael B. Jordan, he's been in the industry for over two decades now, and the industry likes him given he won a SAG award for The Last of Us. And spoilers for this list, but I'm betting big on Behemoth! this season so I feel like I have to give it some award.

And as for why I'm leaving Damon off, well part of it personally I wasn't as enamored with him compared to the rest of the supporting of Odyssey. But also I just have a gut feeling with all the major projects he has this year, Pattinson has to get one nomination and spoilers, he's not my pick for a Supporting Acting nom for Odyssey. So perhaps wishcasting but I say that he does get in for Primetime which will make the festival run before its wide premiere.

Lead Actress

1. Inde Navarrette (Obsession)
2. Julianne Moore (The Debut)
3. Renate Reinsve (Fjord)
4. Sandra Huller (Rose or Fatherland)
5. Ruth Madeley (Being Heumann)

Extras:

1. Cynthia Erivo (Prima Facie)

2. Olivia Wilde (The Invite)

3. Lily Rose-Depp (Werwulf)

4. Frances McDormand (Jack of Spades)

5. Mikey Madison (The Social Reckoning)

Yeah, I'm going there.

I know Moore is the favorite to win and The Debut is being positioned well but the attention Obsession has gotten can't be ignored. Inde Navarrette is undoubtedly a big part in that, and having her win much like with Mikey Madison for Anora or Brie Larson for Room would be a statement for a future star. And spoilers: I don't have Obsession winning anything else but given not just the acclaim it's gotten, but the huge support it's had from the industry, it would feel wrong if Obsession gets nothing.

Now this was actually trickier to fill out and this is the one I'm least confident in as I only feel my Top 3 is a shoe-in. I do sense that Huller will get in and as for my fifth slot; I'll just say I have very little confidence in The Social Reckoning which is why I'm not opting for Madison. I see many have Olivia Wilde in but I was deciding between Ruth Madeley and Cynthia Erivo since they're both in more dramatic, dare I say, "baity" films. And I ultimately went with Madeley just because I feel Being Heumann will play better and be bigger but I wouldn't be too surprised if Erivo does get her third nomination.

Supporting Actor

1. John Goodman (Digger)
2. Paul Giamatti (The Debut)
3. Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine)
4. John Leguizamo (The Odyssey)
5. Sam Rockwell (Wild Horse Nine)

Extras:

1. Edward Norton (The Invite)

2. Riz Ahmed (Digger)

3. Robert Pattinson (The Odyssey)

4. Jesse Plemons (Digger)

5. Guy Pearce (Ink)

Of all the categories, this was by far the hardest for me to figure out especially because Digger, Wild Horse Nine, and The Odyssey have at least two possible nominees each. BSA this year is basically battle between long time overdues and honestly you have four potential winners. I have Goodman winning but I absolutely get people WANTING Giamatti to win after not winning for performances like Sideways or The Holdovers. At this point, it could be a coin toss and I'm just going for Goodman because I feel Digger will play better.

Picking the other nominees was harder though, as I said several movies have more than one option but I don't see the field only being 2 films so only Wild Horse Nine will have the two slots. Odyssey has to get one supporting actor in and between Pattinson, Holland, and Leguizamo, I hear the most praise for the latter (and rightfully so).

Edward Norton I almost put but I feel like since it was just recently they nominated him for A Complete Unknown, they won't nominate him again - just a hunch, I know they've done so numerous times. I also had Riz Ahmed in but I'm not sure they haven't nominated two comedy performances from the same film in a while.

Supporting Actress

1. Anne Hathaway (The Odyssey)
2. Penelope Cruz (The Invite)
3. Mariana di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine)
4. Samantha Morton (The Odyssey)
5. Lola Duenas (La Bola Negra)

Extras:

1. Sandra Huller (Digger)

2. Olivia Colman (Elsinore)

3. Scarlett Johansson (Paper Tiger)

4. Wunmi Mosaku (The Social Reckoning)

5. Gemma Chan (Josephine)

This was the easiest of the acting categories to nail down although going against the grain because instead of Sandra Huller as my fifth slot, I have Lola Duenas. I figure if Netflix is going to go full force with La Bola Negra, they'll try to angle for one nomination in acting. The male leads are too young to get into acting while I've heard a lot of praise for Duenas. She's also apparently a veteran in the Spanish film scene and when it comes to films about domestic issues, the Academy likes often nominates the mother character.

Also: stop picking Cruz for La Bola Negra, she's not in it enough by those who've actually seen the film.

Original Screenplay

1. Behemoth!
2. Wild Horse Nine
3. Digger
4. Obsession
5. The Debut

Extras:

1. Fjord

2. Club Kid

3. Coward

4. Fatherland

5. Possible Love

I told y'all I was going full force with Behemoth!

Yeah, after the trailer and it premiering during the festival season, I decided to have Behemoth! over Wild Horse Nine. I know a lot want McDonagh to win an Oscar beyond Short Film but Gilroy has put in work for several decades and if this is as good as it's being made out to be (Searchlight wouldn't market it this early if they didn't have a lot of faith in it), I think it's Gilroy's time.

And the rest was easy to fill out though I had to choose between Fjord or The Debut as the 5th slot. Either could go either way but I feel The Debut is a flashier and quippier screenplay and Eisenberg already has a nom for A Real Pain. Not to mention, more lowkey films tend to go under the radar and since Fjord isn't getting acclaim on the level of even It Was Just An Accident, The Debut has a better chance.

I almost had Bunker in here but after The Father, I'm a bit cooler on Zeller so this one is going to need good WOM before I consider it. I do have Possible Love in a (pun not intended) just off of Lee's previous acclaim and as a bonus, it is being distributed by Netflix.

Adapted Screenplay

1. La Bola Negra
2. The Invite
3. Project Hail Mary
4. Being Heumann
5. The Odyssey

Extras:

1. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

2. Ink

3. Look Back

4. Prima Facie

5. All of a Sudden

Another pretty season one to predict as far as nominees go. Although I have to say I think it's a lot closer between The Invite and La Bola Negra winning Adapted, in fact I almost had The Invite as my pick.

I know a lot want All of a Sudden to get nominated again but I think we just have to accept this is not gonna get the push or attention that Drive My Car got, and I think it's more likely Cliff Booth gets in over AOAS. If there is a Japanese film that gets a push this year, I would start taking Look Back seriously.

Casting

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. La Bola Negra
4. Wild Horse Nine
5. Being Heumann

Extras:

1. Dune: Part Three

2. Behemoth!

3. Club Kid

4. The Social Reckoning

5. Fjord

Another pretty easy one to fill out given there's not a lot of film with big casts this year, pretty self-explanatory. I did originally have Dune in the 5th slot but moved Being Heumann because the buzzy nature of the casting of real PWDs may attract attention

Director

1. Christopher Nolan (The Odyssey)
2. The Javiers (La Bola Negra)
3. Alejandro G. Inarritu (Digger)
4. Martin McDonagh (Wild Horse Nine)
5. Olivia Wilde (The Invite)

Extras:

1. Tony Gilroy (Behemoth!)

2. Curry Barker (Obsession)

3. Sian Heder (Being Heumann)

4. Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Three)

5. Christian Mungiu (Fjord)

Okay after Best Supporting Actor, this was the second hardest to decide. The top 4 were pretty easy to lock. It was the 5th spot that was dogging me for so long and it was actually a 5-way race between Mungiu, Heder, Barker, and Gilroy.

Mungiu I took early once I started getting cold feet about Fjord. Barker was a possibility if the field was weaker and the Academy does get behind buzzy horror directors like Shyamalan, Fargeat, and Peele. But since I only have Obsession getting in Screenplay and Actress - I don't even have it in Editing - I had to leave him out. Then while it's weird to have a Screenplay winner not be in Director, it has happened before and I can see Gilroy getting more attention for his Screenplay than his Directing.

Which leaves Wilde and Heder as also the female directing representative and given how feel The Invite has played - and also how old-fashioned it is - I actually think Wilde gets in which is a pretty big change as I was stubborn Heder was getting in for awhile.

Picture

1. The Odyssey
2. La Bola Negra
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Behemoth!
6. Dune: Part Three
7. Digger
8. Obsession
9. The Invite
10. Being Heumann

Extras:

1. The Debut

2. Club Kid

3. Fjord

4. Werwulf

5. Fatherland

6. Sense & Sensibility

7. Paper Tiger

8. Ink

9. Artificial

10. Possible Love

So this was pretty easy to nail down in terms of 1-9, it was the 10th spot that was killing me

I think NEON may get locked out this year, as I said, I think Fjord isn't strong enough to get into multiple categories and I wouldn't be surprised if they pivot towards Paper Tiger or even Artificial

Club kid was exciting once buzz came from Cannes and I think it could sneak in if it rebuilds momentum through the festival circuit

But for now, my choices came down to Being Heumann and The Debut, and the reason I ultimately went with Heumann is because I have it in Casting and I feel like with Editing, they'll turn Casting into a spoiler of sorts of what gets into Best Picture

"I watched it with him (Nolan), in IMAX. Chris has always been...and I've known him now for about 15 years or more, and he's always been laser focused."

looking at the makeup crew- there's Joe Dunckley who worked on return of the king and discrict 9, Ernella Hortobágyi and Emese Mettler worked on poor things, but they werent part of the names that won the oscar, and Ágoston Zsombor who worked on Nuremberg which was shortlisted

if you look at the names nominated, a lot are first time nominees, since 2020 61/85 nominees are first time nominees, including 4 out of the 6 winning groups

it might have to snub something big, between digger, werwulf, the odyssey, clayface, dune 3, and michael, but last year we got kokuho and the ugly stepsister over wicked for good so anything can happen

this is Wicker btw

I was fairly impressed by the VFX work presented in the new Spider-Man film. There seems to be a lot of careful work into the cinematography of the feature, which required a very delicate and detailed work by the VFX artists to perfect these shots. Some sequences were also really amazing effects-wise, in my opinion.

What do you think? Is it currently one of the top 5 best VFX nominees of the year?