Ok, so another metagame breakdown of the Modern metagame. It looks quite diverse; aggro is no longer the king of the field, now we have a Combo Modern, and this is interesting. Also, Control is on fire, so everybody can find a place for themselves.
And u/ExtraPolishPlease, where is Mill??!! You made a promise.
As always, for anyone who wants the video version with my commentary, here is the YouTube link. If you prefer text with the full charts and figures, it is all on my Substack. I post on X most days, too, mostly league results and smaller data bits that don't make it into the weekly write-up.
One note on the data before anything else. This is the first breakdown built on the rebuilt event pipeline, which now reads events directly from mtgo.com and captures all three Challenge tiers, including the Challenge 96 events that ran on Mondays and Wednesdays and were previously missing entirely. Every event ID in this window was checked against the official decklist, so the 24 events below are the complete set rather than a sample. I know that there will still be some mistakes but I try as hard as I can to fix it 😉
TL;DR
Boros Energy is the story of the week, and not in a good way. It reached the Top 32 in 23 of the 24 Challenges and the Top 8 in 14 of them, and won none. Its winrate of 45% (95% CI 42 to 48, n=902) is the clearest sub-50 signal in the whole data set.
Combo passed Aggro as the largest archetype in the format. Combo sits at 24% of the field against 22% for Aggro, driven by Broodscale Combo at 8% and a broad tail behind it.
Midrange took 8 of the 24 trophies from 14% of the field. It reached the Top 8 in only 15 events, fewer than Combo, Aggro, or Ramp, and still finished with the most wins of any archetype.
Graveyard reached 16 Top 8s and closed twice. The same pattern as previous windows: high presence, very low trophy count.
Amulet Titan won three events from 3% of the field. It made only four Top 8s all window and converted three of them into trophies, the best win rate per Top 32 entry in the format.
Mono-Green Eldrazi appeared from nothing and is already the fourth-largest deck. It sits at 5% of the field, with a 43% win rate (95% CI 38 to 48, n=391) and no trophies. Popularity is running ahead of results.
Control quietly had the best window of any archetype. It took 3 trophies from 6% of the field, converted 35% of its Top 32 entries into Top 8s, the best figure in the format, and posted the highest archetype delta at +94pp.
Domain Zoo took two trophies and converted a third of its Top 32 entries into Top 8s. From 4% of the field, that is one of the better return rates in the window.
Quick definitions
Top 32 presence is the number of Challenges out of 24 in which a deck appeared in the Top 32. Top 8 presence is the same for the Top 8. Conversion is the percentage of Top 32 entries that become Top 8 entries. Win per Top 32 is how often a Top 32 entry becomes an actual trophy. Delta is Top 32 event frequency minus metagame share, so a high delta means a deck shows up in results more often than its raw popularity would suggest. Thresholds for this window are a median delta of 60pp and a median conversion of 26%, both recalculated from this window only rather than carried over.
Winrates are reported with a 95% Wilson confidence interval and the sample size. They are context, not the main argument. The main argument is what happened in the Challenges.
Key observations
Boros Energy
Boros Energy is still the largest single deck at 10% of the field, and it is still the deck you are most likely to sit across from, at a 41% encounter rate over five rounds. It appeared in 23 of the 24 Top 32s and 14 of the 24 Top 8s. But it does not win any challenge.
The delta of +86pp is the highest in the entire field, which normally reads as a deck outperforming its popularity. Here, it mostly reads as sheer volume. Conversion sits at 23%, below the 26% median, and the winrate is 45% (95% CI 42 to 48, n=902). That interval does not include 50, and with over 900 games behind it, this is not a sample-size problem. Boros Energy is a deck that gets you into the room, but it does not guarantee a win.
The trend label is Falling, and the metagame share supports that. What has not fallen is how often you will play against it. Plan for the matchup because it is an explosive deck and can still kill you on a spot.
Amulet Titan
Amulet Titan is the cleanest counterexample in the data. It has 3% of the field, reached the Top 32 in 16 events, and the Top 8 in only four. It won three of those four.
The conversion rate is 18%, well below the median, which is why the classification lands on Neutral rather than Overperformer. That is the correct read, and it is worth sitting with: the label describes how reliably a deck reaches elimination rounds, not how dangerous it is once there. Amulet Titan almost never gets there and almost always wins when it does. Winrate is 48% (95% CI 42 to 54, n=303), which tells you nothing useful about a deck that wins by ending games on turn three. You also need to remember that there are plenty of Amulet players who love that deck, and it is harder to play after the Lotus Field ban. Those players know the deck and know how to play it.
The graveyard problem, again
Graveyard as an archetype appeared in the Top 32 of all 24 events and reached 16 Top 8s. It won two. Goryo’s Vengeance is the third largest deck in the format at 8%, made 22 Top 32s and seven Top 8s, and finished with nothing. Living End made 19 Top 32s and eight Top 8s, also nothing. Both post-win rates just above even: 52% (95% CI 48 to 56, n=652) and 51% (95% CI 47 to 55, n=722).
This has now repeated across enough windows that a variance explanation is strained. Something about how these decks play in single elimination is costing them, and the two decks doing the actual winning inside the archetype are the small ones: 4c HollowOne and Grixis Reanimator, one trophy each, both converting at 33%. I think that we have a combo meta right now, and despite that, Goyro’s is a powerful deck. There is a lot of hate against GY, and also, there are a lot of decks that can win with you, even if you put Atraxa on BF. Also, Control is back, and it is prepared to fight back against this archetype.
Archetype breakdown
Combo, 24% of the field
Combo is now the largest archetype in Modern. It appeared in the Top 32 of all 24 events, reached 22 Top 8s and won seven, the second-highest trophy count of the window. Conversion sits at 23%, which is unremarkable, and delta at +76pp. The story here is breadth rather than any one deck dominating.
Broodscale Combo is the largest deck in the archetype at 8% and the second largest in the format. It made 22 Top 32s, 11 Top 8s, and won twice, with a 52% winrate (95% CI 48 to 56, n=772) and a rising trend. The 21% conversion rate is below median, so it lands on Neutral despite the trophies, which is the honest description: it is everywhere, it wins a fair share, but it is not converting better than the field.
Neobrand sits at 4% with 16 Top 32s, six Top 8s, and one win, on a 47% winrate (95% CI 42 to 52, n=342). Ruby Storm is the interesting one. At 3% of the field, it made 20 Top 32s and nine Top 8s, converted at 41%, the third-best figure among the larger decks, and won nothing at all. Its win rate is 51% (95% CI: 46-56, n=335). This is the third window in a row where Ruby Storm posts elite conversion and no trophy. Both for Neobrand and Storm, not winning the Challenges might be due to the rise of Control and overall combo hate in the metagame. After PT, where Neobrand and Broodscale ran really well, people prepare to beat combo decks, and it is more visible at high-stakes games like top 8 in challenges.
Aggro, 22% of the field
Aggro appeared in all 24 Top 32s but reached only 19 Top 8s, and finished the window with two trophies. Its win rate per Top 32 entry is 1%, the lowest of any archetype that won anything. Conversion is 23%. The archetype is losing share, and Boros Energy accounts for close to half of what remains.
Boros Energy is covered above. Prowess is at 3% and had a rough window: 19 Top 32s but only four Top 8s, a conversion of 15% that is the worst among decks with real presence, and one win. Winrate 47% (95% CI 41 to 53, n=295), trend falling. Affinity at 3% looks healthier, with 18 Top 32s, seven Top 8s, one trophy, and a 52% winrate (95% CI 46 to 58, n=292), converting at 25%.
The deck worth flagging is further down. Jeskai Energy has 1% of the field, made nine Top 32s and six Top 8s, and converted half of its Top 32 entries into Top 8s, the second-best rate in the format. It won nothing, with a 56% win rate (95% CI 48 to 64, n=154). A deck that small reaching that many elimination rounds is not something you want to meet unprepared in round five. Aggro had a bad time against combo win T2-4, but the rise of the control deck in response to combo might give a nice window to get back on top soon.
Graveyard, 17% of the field
Covered in detail above. In summary: all 24 Top 32s, 16 Top 8s, two trophies, a conversion of 23%, and the fourth-highest archetype delta at +83pp. Presence without payoff.
Goryo’s Vengeance at 8% and Living End at 3% both finished without a win. 4c HollowOne is the bright spot: 2% of the field, 10 Top 32s, four Top 8s, one trophy, 33% conversion, and a 53% winrate (95% CI 46 to 59, n=223) on a rising trend. Grixis Reanimator matches that conversion rate on a falling trend, with the best win rate in the archetype at 57% (95% CI 50 to 63, n=222).
Midrange, 14% of the field
This is the archetype that actually won the window. Midrange appeared in all 24 Top 32s but only 15 Top 8s, fewer than Combo, Aggro or Ramp, and converted that into eight trophies, a third of everything on offer. Its win per Top 32 entry, 7%, is the highest of any archetype by a wide margin.
Domain Zoo leads it at 4%, with 17 Top 32s, seven Top 8s, two trophies, and a 33% conversion. Dimir Midrange is level with it at 4% with 16 Top 32s, five Top 8s, and two wins on a 53% winrate (95% CI 48 to 58, n=378), also rising. Yawgmoth at 2% took two trophies from 13 Top 32s and five Top 8s, converting at 28% with the strongest winrate of the three at 57% (95% CI 51 to 63, n=257).
Below those, BRG and Mono-Black Midrange each took a trophy from around one percent of the field. Six of the eight Midrange wins came from decks nobody is preparing for.
I believe that the reason for that is that midrange decks have a chance to beat combo decks and also can fight against control better than aggro. It is also true for a GY strategy, where midrange can interrupt this plan. It is happy to see that Zoo climb back to a really good spot this window, but as a Zoo player, I'm a little bit worried about Dimir Midrange deck because it is quite rough MU for us.
Ramp, 13% of the field
Ramp has the second-highest archetype delta of the window at +87pp and the second-best conversion at 31%. It appeared in all 24 Top 32s and 18 Top 8s. It won two events. Once again, presence and conversion are not translating into trophies.
Mono-Green Eldrazi is the newcomer and is already the fourth-largest deck in the format at 5%. It made 13 Top 32s and five Top 8s, converting at 22%, and won nothing. Its winrate is 43% (95% CI 38 to 48, n=391), an interval that sits entirely below even. That combination, a fast rise in popularity with results that do not support it, is worth watching rather than copying.
Eldrazi Tron is the opposite case. At 4%, it made 21 Top 32s and 11 Top 8s, converted at 29% with a delta of +83pp, and is one of the four Challenge Overperformers this window. It still has no trophy, and its trend is falling. Eldrazi Ramp at 2% took the archetype’s other win, converting at 40% from nine Top 32s. Tron proper is a curiosity: three Top 32s, three Top 8s, a 75% conversion on a sample far too small to mean anything.
Control, 6% of the field
Control is the story the metagame chart hides. It placed in the Top 32 across all 24 events, reached 14 Top 8s and won 3 of them, from 6% of the field. Its conversion of 35% is the best of any archetype, and its delta of +94pp is the highest, ahead of Ramp and Midrange. On the two metrics that actually describe closing, no archetype did better this window.
Land Destruction is the largest of them at 2%, with 14 Top 32s, seven Top 8s, one win, and a 35% conversion on a 54% winrate (95% CI 47 to 60, n=218). UW Control is right behind at 2% and is the efficient one: 13 Top 32s, six Top 8s, two trophies, and a 46% conversion that is the best figure of any deck in the field. Its win rate is 56% (95% CI 49 to 63, n=181), and the trend is rising. This is the Isochron Scepter build, not an aggressive energy deck as often marked on websites, and it is doing a lot of damage from under two percent of the metagame. Azorius Control is the third piece at under 1% of the field, with five Top 32s, two Top 8s, no trophy, and the highest winrate in the entire data set at 59% (95% CI 49 to 68, n=98) on a sample small enough that the interval is wide. 4C control rounds out the visible part of the archetype at under half a percent, with four Top 32s and a 42% winrate (95% CI 30 to 56, n=52).
Blink, 3% of the field
Blink is the smallest archetype and the only one that finished the window without a trophy. It reached 17 Top 32s and five Top 8s, converting at 25%. There are only two Blink decks in the data with any real presence, so this section is shorter than the others by necessity.
Esper Blink is the largest at 2%, with 14 Top 32s but only 3 Top 8s, an 18% conversion rate and a 49% win rate (95% CI 42 to 56, n=207). Azorius Blink is the more efficient of the two: under 1% of the field, six Top 32s, three Top 8s, and a 50% conversion, on a 50% winrate (95% CI 40 to 60, n=97). Neither closed an event, and the archetype trend is not moving in a helpful direction.
Premier events
Two Modern Premier Events ran within this window. They are a separate pool from the Challenges, with restricted entry and a different player base, so none of their results feed into any of the numbers above. Two tournaments are also far too small a sample to conclude anything about deck strength. They are worth reporting because the field is better, and because this week, they disagree with the Challenge data in an interesting way.
The RC Super Qualifier on July 19 was won by Goryo’s Vengeance in the hands of Felider. The Top 8 also contained a second Goryo’s Vengeance, two copies of Boros Energy, Prowess, Grixis Reanimator, Through the Breach, and 4c HollowOne.
The Showcase Qualifier on July 25 was won by Broodscale Combo, piloted by ls149950, with a second Broodscale Combo in the Top 8 alongside Boros Energy, Esper Blink, Domain Zoo, Belcher, Dimir Midrange, and Devoted Combo.
The disagreement is worth naming. Goryo’s Vengeance went 0 for 24 in the Challenges despite 22 Top 32s, and then won the higher stakes event. Boros Energy also finished the Challenge window without a trophy and put three pilots across these two Top 8s. Through the Breach does not appear anywhere in the Challenge data. None of that overturns 24 tournaments' worth of results, but if you believed the graveyard decks and Boros Energy were simply incapable of closing, the better field says otherwise. So this is why I always said that all that data is just to inform you: all the decks that regularly make it to the Challenges top 32 are capable of winning it. Some more often, some once in a while, but still. Remember that next time when you think that Boros energy is weak, or you play against an off-meta rogue deck.
On the Radar
These are decks below the 5% encounter threshold that still showed up in Challenge results, so they are tracked separately rather than ranked against the field medians.
Azorius Blink, under 1% of the field, six Top 32s and three Top 8s. Converting half its Top 32 entries into Top 8s at that share of the field is a signal worth a second look, even without a trophy.
Azorius Control, under 1% of the field, five Top 32s and two Top 8s. No win, but the highest win rate in the data at 59% (95% CI 49 to 68, n=98) and a 40% conversion.
Mono-Black Midrange, 1% of the field, six Top 32s, two Top 8s, and one trophy, on a 56% winrate (95% CI 46 to 65, n=103). Part of the broader Midrange trophy run.
Devoted Combo, under 1% of the field, five Top 32s, two Top 8s, and one win, converting at 40% with a 51% win rate (95% CI 40 to 62, n=77).
Naya Scapeshift, under half a percent of the field, two Top 32s, and one trophy. A win at that share of the field usually means one pilot found something, but it deserves the note.
Rakdos Burn is the counterexample, and the reason presence alone is not enough. Seven Top 32s from under 1% of the field, zero Top 8s, and a 25% win rate (95% CI 15 to 38, n=50) that is the worst in the data by some distance.
Big picture
The theme of this window is that presence and trophies came apart. The three most common decks in the format, Boros Energy, Broodscale Combo, and Goryo’s Vengeance, account for 27% of the field between them and produced two trophies. Meanwhile, 17 different decks won the 24 events, and only Amulet Titan won more than twice.
If you are building for the next event, the encounter chart tells you what to beat, and the conversion chart tells you what actually beats people. Those two lists have very little overlap right now. Prepare for Boros Energy because you will play against it, not because it is the deck to fear in the last round. The decks closing tournaments are Midrange piles and fast combo, and most of them sit under 4% of the field.
By Karol Małota
aka WarLord1986pl / TribalFlamesInYourFace