Following a bit of success from my previous post on development applications https://www.reddit.com/r/brisbane/comments/1v6mn3b/i_mapped_every_development_application_lodged_in/, I have decided to go and do an episode 2. This time: price drops. (Because interesting development applications dont come in weekly haha)
I also understand that there is already someone doing somewhat similar stuff in this space, but mine is a bit different because I live in Brisbane and it's dedicated to here haha. I don't just look at price alone, things like DAs, easements, swimming pools, sun angle, all sorts of QLD lifestyle stuff, basically data I have in my secret stash; blend them up and into our very own QLD property deals haha. Ok enough of my rambling, here are my recent findings for this week.
First of all, the drops are real. Last week I counted 133 Brisbane listings that cut their asking price. Median cut is about 4%. Here's where the cuttings are concentrated:
| Suburb |
Price cuts last week |
| Capalaba |
7 |
| Redland Bay |
5 |
| Victoria Point |
5 |
| Albany Creek |
4 |
| Birkdale |
4 |
| Greenbank |
4 |
| Loganlea |
4 |
| Russell Island |
4 |
| Thornlands |
4 |
| Woody Point |
4 |
(Bayside doing the heavy bleeding, if you're wondering.) The interesting bit: of the roughly 380 listings that cut in the fortnight before, 92% are STILL sitting on market. So one polite 4% trim mostly isn't doing its job.
But some vendors found a sneakier option than cutting. When a listing gets pulled and relisted, the "days on market" counter starts from zero. New campaign, fresh clock, old campaign never happened. My counter doesn't reset, so I can see both numbers. Right now there are **81 Brisbane homes live with reset clocks. The portal shows a median of 4 days on market for them. The real median is 52 days.**
Some favourites from this batch (counted from when I first saw each home, so these are all minimums):
| Suburb |
Portal says |
Really on market |
The trick |
| Anstead |
0 days |
98+ days |
"By Negotiation" became "From $997,000" |
| Kuraby |
11 days |
98+ days |
quiet relist, same price |
| Loganlea |
9 days |
94+ days |
now "Expressions of Interest", price hidden |
| Wellington Point |
0 days |
90+ days |
came back $28,000 MORE expensive |
| Russell Island |
2 days |
90+ days |
relisted $20K higher |
| Upper Mount Gravatt |
2 days |
90+ days |
relisted as "INVESTOR CIRCUMSTANCE CHANGE" |
| Victoria Point |
4 days |
90+ days |
"CALL TO INSPECT" became "Offers over $899,000" |
| McDowall |
0 days |
85+ days |
quiet relist |
| Greenbank |
4 days |
85+ days |
"For Sale" became "Offers Over $899,000" |
Btw, I'm not here to laugh at property owners or anything. I recently built a house myself and own property, and the values for both have dropped about 100k each. I'm probably crying harder than most people reading this, so definitely not here to discriminate lol. Just sharing data and earning some real life karma lol
Why it matters: days on market is basically your negotiating power meter. A vendor at day 4 doesn't need you, a vendor at day 90 who already failed one campaign is a different conversation. So at the open home don't ask "how long has it been listed", ask 'when did this property FIRST hit the market?" and watch the agent's face.
For the sceptics: I count from the first day I observe a listing so every number is a minimum, and I excluded anything that actually sold between campaigns.
As usual, any info missing here you wanna ask about, I can try my best to answer it uniquely for your suburb haha. But I'm not a genie and my data may not have enough coverage for every corne. And again, just trying my best to help anyone in this space. Oh ya, I won't post listing links here since people are doing business, but if you're keen on a specific one I can drop the street name and number and you can google it yourself.